Paralysing September snow a harbinger of things to come for South Africa

17 Oct 2024

Our weather is likely to become increasingly unpredictable. A warming climate is causing rainfall to intensify and droughts to become more severe and prolonged. The occasional springtime snowfall in South Africa may become both heavier and harder to anticipate and address.

Although September’s snowfall, which stranded motorists on the N3 and resulted in two deaths, was outside normal weather patterns, snow in spring and summer in South Africa is not entirely unheard of.

Records from Snow Report Southern Africa show that snow has fallen in September, October and November, especially in the Eastern and Western Cape and in KwaZulu-Natal since 1953, and fairly regularly between 2010 and 2018.

That said, the last time so much snow fell in September was actually in Gauteng, in 1981, and predicting these events accurately remains difficult.

What does this trend tell us? Should we anticipate springtime snow? If so, how should we respond? And what does the future hold? Can we expect more extreme weather in the years to come?

What were the impacts of September’s snowfall?

The fact that two people died of hypothermia on the N3 is of course the most extreme impact we should be acknowledging. Any weather event that results in the loss of human life should be of immediate concern. It should force us to consider how weather patterns are evolving and whether we have adequate and effective measures in place to deal with them.

Animal lives were affected too, of course. For farmers, the loss of livestock and damage to crops was enormous. In the Msinga Local Municipality, small-scale and commercial farmers lost goats and cattle, while farmers in and around QwaQwa, Harrismith and Warden not only lost livestock and crops, but experienced severe structural damage, too. Employees also battled to get to work, stalling production.

The melting snow in the days afterwards also led to ongoing flood warnings. There is still a flood risk in areas near the Tugela River from Ladysmith to Msinga, and communities downstream of the Tugela River catchment should remain on alert.

Looking ahead, we need to decide whether there are winter mitigation measures — such as snow ploughs, road salt and snow tyres — we should adopt in our risk and mitigation plans.

Of course, addressing our preparedness doesn’t only apply to severe snow, but to the other effects of climate change, too, including floods and drought.

How should we respond?

South Africa wasn’t properly equipped to deal with September’s snowfall. Drivers on the N3 battled to find information on open and viable alternative routes, and even where communication systems were in place, challenges were encountered.

The South African Weather Service, for example, issued multiple warnings on several platforms, well in advance, to alert communities and travellers to the level of risk. But people either didn’t receive these warnings or didn’t heed them.

Communication aside, there are other critical steps we should be prioritising. We need to be investing in climate-resilient infrastructure, including building better housing for vulnerable people, creating better-designed and maintained stormwater drainage systems, and enhancing insurance plans for farmers.

Improved early warning systems and disaster preparedness, including adequate equipment for rescue teams and disaster management services, are also necessary.

We need to focus on agricultural practices that are resilient to climate change, too. These efforts might include crop diversification, soil conservation and efficient water use. And we should adopt nature-based infrastructure solutions that involve designing with, and not against, the environment around us. Green-grey flood mitigation designs and culverts near existing watercourses are examples of this.

Finally, we need to adjust our data collection and analysis. The rarity of snow in South Africa means that snow depth isn’t always measured, but the occurrence of snow is noted at South African Weather Service offices. This absence of detailed data means that we need an alternative definition of significant snowfall in the country.

What does the future hold?

There were several meteorological factors that contributed to September’s snowfall, including the presence of late-season cold fronts and shifts in the jet stream. Even though the climate crisis is causing warmer and shorter winters in many areas worldwide, a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture and means that heavier snowfalls may occur in other areas. Research by Hector Chikoore et al has projected significant rises in mean surface air temperatures over South Africa in the coming years.

In the years ahead, our weather is likely to become increasingly unpredictable. Climate change is causing rainfall to intensify and droughts to become more severe and prolonged. The occasional springtime snowfall in South Africa may become both heavier and harder to anticipate and address.

Climate resilience means that we have to adopt a new kind of thinking. We need to view total risk as a combination of economic, social and environmental impacts. Adopting a climate-resilient approach to development provides opportunities to create inclusive, equitable responses to climate change — responses that work and are sustainable.

Most importantly, climate resilience needs to be fundamentally and appropriately incorporated into policymaking. And significant funds need to be made available for development plans to adequately account for future climate risks. Only then can we hope to cope with the weather patterns to come. DM

Karen King is the Climate Resilience Director and Yolandi Meyer is a Disaster Management Specialist at Royal HaskoningDHV, a B-BBEE Level 1 independent company founded in the Netherlands in 1881, with offices in South Africa since 1922. The authors would like to thank the SA Weather Service for its data and comments.

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South Africa

What were the impacts of September’s snowfall?

How should we respond?

What does the future hold?