Historic win — Patriotic Alliance takes Sutherland ward off ANC in tight Northern Cape contest

29 May 2025

The Patriotic Alliance won a seat off the ANC in the small town of Sutherland in the Karoo Hoogland of the Northern Cape. The ANC was able to hold off the PA in two other closely contested by-elections. The ANC also lost ground to the EFF and uMkhonto Wesizwe party in a safe seat in the small Free State town of Koppies.

Northern Cape

Ward 4 (Sutherland) Karoo Hoogland, Namakwa: PA 51% (37%) ANC 49% (45%)

The setting: Sutherland is one of the coldest places in the country. It is also home to the primary telescopes of the South African Astronomical Observatory. Brothers and celebrated poets NP van Wyk Louw and WEG Louw also hail from this town. Sutherland sits on the R354 which links the villages of Matjiesfontein in the Western Cape with Middelpos. It is also on the R356 which connects Sutherland with Fraserburg.

Other towns in the district are Garies, Port Nolloth and Pofadder.

The 2021 local government election: The ANC beat the PA by 68 votes. The DA came third with 14% of the vote. The Freedom Front Plus (FF+) was fourth with 3%.

The ANC fell one seat short of an outright majority, taking five of the 11 seats, followed by the DA with three and the Patriotic Alliance (PA) on two. The FF+ obtained the remaining seat. The ANC formed a coalition with the PA to govern the Karoo Hoogland.

The 2024 provincial election: The PA edged the ANC this time by a margin of 24 votes. The PA’s 45% was just ahead of the ANC’s 42%. The DA was third with 10% and the FF+ fourth with 2%.

The by-election: ANC ward councillor Sandra Muller defected to the PA and was the candidate for the latter in the by-election. This by-election took place a few months after the ANC won outright control of Karoo Hoogland, after taking a seat off the DA in the town of Williston. The ANC needed to retain this seat to keep outright control of the municipality.

The PA beat the ANC by 35 votes to win its first ward seat in the vast Namakwa district of the Northern Cape. Sandra Muller won her seat back in PA colours in a very tight contest. The absence of the DA and the FF+ from the ballot could well be a contributing factor to the PA prevailing. Muller probably also brought some ANC voters across with her.

This historic win for the PA means that the ANC have lost its outright majority in Karoo Hoogland as it now has five (six) of the 11 seats. The PA is now the second-largest party in the council with three (two) seats. The DA has two and the FF+ one. The ANC worked with the PA before it won an outright majority in the council and is likely to turn to the PA first.

The PA had good growth in many Namakwa municipalities in 2024 on the provincial ballot. It will use this win as a springboard for big gains in the next local government elections.

Poll: 67% (61%)

Ward 6 (Okiep) Nama Khoi, Namakwa: ANC 39% (66%) PA 30% NCM 17% (16%) DA 13% (17%) EFF 1% (<1%)

The setting: Okiep is north of Springbok, the seat of Nama Khoi. It is on the N7 national road which links Springbok and Steinkopf and ultimately the Namibian border. Okiep was renowned for its copper deposits. It is also the home town of top doubles tennis player Jeff Coetzee. Ward 6 is north of Bergsig, where the ANC took a ward off the local party, the Namakwa Civic Movement (NCM), in May 2025.

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC won by a landslide, falling just shy of the two-thirds mark. The DA finished just ahead of the NCM for second place. The PA did not feature in this ward in 2021.

This was also the only municipality in this vast province where the opposition parties were able to form a stable coalition at the expense of the ANC. The DA (five) and the NCM (four) took nine of the 17 seats in Nama Khoi, although the ANC was still the largest party with seven. The FF+ obtained a single seat.

The 2024 provincial election: The ANC lost ground here compared with 2021 but there was still a large gap between it and the next-best party. The ANC took 39% of the vote. The DA was second (21%), the PA third (19%) and the Northern Cape Communities Movement (NCCM), a party with ties to the NCM, fourth (17%). The EFF was well off the pace with 2%.

The by-election: Ward councillor Josua Losper defected from the ANC to the PA, for which he was the candidate in the by-election.

The ANC won a seat off the NCM in mid-May 2025. This meant the party went into this by-election with eight of the 17 council seats. The DA and NCM went into this by-election dependent on the FF+ to govern in Nama Khoi.

The ANC beat the PA by 235 votes in a competitive by-election in which the party matched its 2024 provincial ballot vote share and finished well off its 2021 mark. The PA surged to second place in the ward and firmly established itself as a political force in Okiep. After not being on the ward ballot in 2021, it obtained 19% in 2024 and garnered 30% this time. The PA will hope that the growth in Okiep was not tied to the former ward councillor and that the next election will bring even more gains.

The DA finished behind its coalition partner, the NCM party. What will concern the DA is not the comparison with the 2021 return, but the fall from its 2024 provincial ballot percentage. It declined by 8%.

The ANC was celebrating winning a seat off the NCM earlier in the month in Nama Khoi. This reduced majority for the ANC means it will have to go back to the drawing board.

Poll: 62% (51%)

Eastern Cape

Ward 5 (Clarkson Woodlands) in Kou-Kamma, Sarah Baartman: ANC 50% (46%) PA 36% (37%) DA 11% (12%) EFF 1% (4%) Labour 1%

The setting: Most voters in Ward 5 live in Clarkson, a Moravian mission station which sits below Kareedouw, just off the N2 national road between Humansdorp and Storms River. It also includes Woodlands (Oubosrand) at the edge of the Tsitsikamma National Park. Other villages in the ward are Witelsbos and Eersterivierstrand. The ward includes a large number of AmaMfengu people.

Kou-Kamma is in the western part of the Eastern Cape and borders the Western Cape. Towns include Joubertina and Kareedouw. The area is known for its forestry and deciduous fruit farming, producing apples and pears. It forms part of the massive Sarah Baartman district which covers most of the western part of the Eastern Cape. Notable towns here are Graaff-Reinet, Somerset East, Makhanda and Jeffreys Bay.

The 2023 by-election: The ANC showed its trademark Eastern Cape durability to retain this ward. The Patriotic Alliance made big inroads in the by-election, and as per the trend from the local government election in Kou-Kamma, this growth was largely at the expense of the DA. The PA won two of the voting districts in the ward, including the most vote-rich district – Clarkson where it won 45% of the vote, well up from 13% in 2021. The ANC declined here from 53% to 34%, and the DA lost significant ground, receding from 29% to 17%. The PA also won the Gustav Reichel voting district in Eersterivier, south of Clarkson, where the party went from a meagre 3% to an impressive 45%. The ANC remained on 36% while the DA fell from 42% to 18%.

What was key for the ANC was Woodlands, the district with the second-highest number of registered voters in the ward. Woodlands had the most voters on the day (67%), compared with 47% in Clarkson. The ANC’s support fell from 56% to 51%, with the PA making large strides, from 22% to 42%, largely at the expense of the DA which dropped from 20% to 7%. The 80-vote margin between the ANC and PA was vital for the incumbent party. The ANC also won the small Koomansbosch Church voting district from the DA. Only 2% of the ward is registered in this district, but with the ANC winning 81% of the vote it was able to create a good buffer of 49 votes between it and the PA here. The PA would be unable to bridge the gap the ANC created in Woodlands and Koomansbosch Church.

The 2024 provincial elections: The ANC was slightly down on its 2023 mark, winning 43%. It carried five of the seven voting districts, including the two chief prizes in the ward – Clarkson and Woodlands. There was a bigger gap between the party and the PA, which finished second on 29%. The PA did not win any voting districts but ran the ANC close in three, including Clarkson and Woodlands, the two most vote-rich districts and in the sparsely populated Koomansbosch area.

The DA finished third on 18%. It carried the voting districts in Witelsbos and Eerste Rivier but finished off the pace in Clarkson and Woodlands. The EFF only won 3%, finishing fourth in the ward.

The by-election: The new ward councillor died. The ANC increased its vote share and held the ward for the second time since the 2021 local government election. This result underscored the party’s impressive durability in the Eastern Cape.

The ANC finished first in all seven voting districts. Only in Witelsbos did it have to share the spoils with the DA. The ANC edged the PA in Clarkson, winning 44% of the vote against the PA’s 41%. In the 2023 by-election the PA beat the ANC in Clarkson.

The PA made good inroads in Woodlands, falling 19 votes short of the ANC’s total. The ANC was unable to win more than 50% and finished on 48% here, while the PA went up to 46%. The turnout was very high in Woodlands, with 70% of registered voters showing up. In Clarkson, only 49% turned up.

Sparsely populated Koomansbosch was again key for the ANC. This small settlement had a 73% turnout. The margin was only 19 votes, but Koomansbosch was key in providing the ANC some additional buffer against the PA. The ANC’s best return was at the Oliver Tambo Hall near Clarkson. This is an area in which many AmaMfengu people live. The ANC won 82% of the vote here. It won 73% in the Tsitsikamma Development Office district. The combined margin between the ANC and the PA was 220 votes in these two districts. The overall margin between the ANC and the PA was 332 votes. These two ANC strongholds were pivotal in the ANC not only retaining the ward but increasing its vote share.

Poll: 56% (53%)

Free State

Ward 16 (Koppies Kwakwatsi) Ngwathe, Fezile Dabi: ANC 47% (62%) EFF 35% (18%) MK 15% ACT 2% Labour 1% PAC <1%

The setting: Koppies is a tiny town near the part of the N1 national road that links Johannesburg with Kroonstad. It is on the R82 regional road, between Sasolburg and Kroonstad. The Koppies Dam is near the town. KwaKwatsi is the main township in Koppies. Soccer players David Radebe and the late Luckyboy Mokoena hail from Koppies. It forms part of the Ngwathe municipality whose seat of power is Parys. This is where former ANC secretary-general and Free State premier Ace Magashule hails from.

It forms part of the Fezile Dabi district which includes the towns of Sasolburg, Kroonstad and Frankfort.

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC won more than 60% of the vote in Kwakwatsi. The DA and EFF tied for second, winning 18% each.

The ANC won 21 of the 37 seats in the council. It did lose three, with the EFF being the main beneficiary. The DA remained the official opposition, winning seven and losing one in the election. It was hurt by the FF+ and the Ngwathe Residents Association, a local party. The EFF held onto third place, obtaining five seats, upping its seat tally by two. The FF+ too improved by two seats, growing from one to three. The Ngwathe Residents Association obtained a single seat.

The 2024 provincial elections: Despite Magashule’s African Congress for Transformation (ACT) entering the fray and Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party, the ANC won three-quarters of the vote in Kwakwatsi, blitzing the opposition. The EFF was second (11%) and the DA third (7%) and ACT fourth (4%), while MK and the Pan Africanist Congress of Azania (PAC) won less than a percent.

The by-election: The ward councillor died. A crowded field lined up to tackle the ANC in Kwakwatsi. This included EFF leader Julius Malema staging a rally here just before election day.

The ANC beat the EFF by 261 votes in Kwakwatsi. The party fell below the 50% mark in a traditional safe seat. The ANC was especially hurt by the EFF but also by MK. The EFF almost doubled its percentage in the ward compared with 2021, but more than tripled it compared with 2021. MK could not even register a percentage in the ward in 2024. It will be very satisfied with its third-place finish and obtaining 15% of the vote.

ACT was well off the pace in this by-election. Kwakwatsi is not very far from Tumahole, Ace Magashule’s political parapet. He would have wanted to do much better here.

The ANC won just over 50% of the vote in the Free State in 2024. It won just under half of the vote in Ngwathe in 2024. If this by-election trend continues for the ANC in Ngwathe, and by extension the Free State, the local government elections could well be a very difficult one for the party in the province.

Poll: 57% (45%)

The next round of by-elections will be on 11 June when the ANC defends two safe seats in the Thembisile Hani municipality in Mpumalanga. Mpumalanga was one of the provinces where the ANC had the sharpest decline in 2024. However, this municipality was not one where MK was able to injure the ANC. DM

Read more: By-elections hub

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