Phala Phala report - no good options for President Ramaphosa or our country

President Cyril Ramaphosa and the governing ANC are in the dwang over the recommended presidential impeachment amid the fluid political and constitutional complications that reached into both Luthuli House and the Union Buildings. None of the options looked good, not for anyone. And certainly not for South Africa, now caught up in its third presidential game of musical chairs in 14 years.

On Thursday evening, Ramaphosa’s spokes­­person, Vincent Magwenya, said the President was still consulting within the ANC, with the tripartite alliance and with other stakeholders, given the enormity of the matter.

“Whatever decision the President makes, that decision has to be informed by the best interest of the country. That decision cannot be rushed.”

Throughout the afternoon, speculation ran hot and heavy that Ramaphosa was being advised to legally challenge the impeachment recommendation to Parliament from the Section 89 independent assessment panel; that he was advised not to resign but rather use all wiggle room possible. Then Thursday evening’s ANC National Executive Committee (NEC) virtual meeting was delayed to the next day to allow it to be held in person.

The only certainty on Friday morning was that on Tuesday, 6 December, the National Assembly was scheduled to debate and vote on the Section 89 assessment panel’s recommendation of impeachment proceedings against Ramaphosa over serious violations of the Constitution. These included violations of Section 96, including paid outside work and exposure to conflicts of interest, alongside contravening the Prevention and Combating of Corrupt Activities Act.

Read more in Daily Maverick: "In the eye of the storm: Inside the report that might sink Cyril Ramaphosa"

A parliamentary debate would be followed by a vote – possibly by secret ballot or an open roll call – in a decision to be taken on the day.

The question for Tuesday’s vote will be whether MPs agree with the panel recommendation. If not, that’s the end of the matter. If yes, a parliamentary impeachment committee will start proceedings.

No other motions or steps are needed as such an impeachment committee is provided for by the rules of Parliament, and merely needs political parties to nominate its members, the National Assembly programming committee has been told.

That impeachment committee would ultimately have to make a decision after, among other things, public hearings that could include Ramaphosa as a witness. If it decided against removing the President, that would be the end of it. If it decided in favour of Ramaphosa’s impeachment, that decision would go to the National Assembly, where it would need a two-thirds majority to succeed. Though some of the President’s advisers may well have proposed he brazen it out, all this will go away if Ramaphosa resigns – and on Tuesday the House would have nothing to debate and vote on.

But also gone then would be any opportunity for him to re-establish his anticorruption, pro-Constitution credentials. And that may not be palatable to the politician who built his presidency on fighting corruption, achieving a social compact and kicking economic growth into higher, sustainable gear. Ramaphosa seems to have been caught off guard by the impeachment recommendation – possibly because of his side’s political spin for exoneration – and maintained he had done nothing wrong.

“I have endeavoured, throughout my tenure as President, not only to abide by my oath, but to set an example of respect for the Constitution, for its institutions, for due process and the law.”

This moment has been described as “unprecedented and extraordinary” in South Africa’s constitutional democracy.

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It is a first – the parliamentary impeachment rules came into force only in November 2018 after the EFF went all the way to the Constitutional Court to get them in place.

But it’s not the first time the governing ANC finds itself in a presidential pickle. On 21 September 2008, and again on 15 February 2018, presidents Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma, respectively, resigned after ANC NEC decisions amid bruising infighting.

Mbeki’s recall came amid the ANC machinations that had brought Zuma to party presidential power at the 2007 ANC Polokwane conference. In turn, Zuma resigned on pain of the ANC supporting an EFF motion of no confidence after the governing party’s patience with years of State Capture ran out.

Baleka Mbete, then the Speaker of the National Assembly, received both their resignations. Though the Constitution does not expressly speak of presidential resignations – Section 88 only talks of a presidential term ending “upon a vacancy” – telling Parliament is key because the National Assembly must, according to Section 86, elect a president from its ranks.

Four days after Mbeki resigned, MPs elected his party deputy, Kgalema Motlanthe, then Minister in the Presidency, as South Africa’s new President. He in turn appointed Mbete as his deputy president.

On 15 February 2018, the National Assembly elected Ramaphosa as President – less than eight weeks earlier, he had narrowly become ANC president at the Nasrec December 2017 conference. In a late-night announcement on 26 February, he appointed his party deputy president, David “DD” Mabuza, as Deputy President of the country.

If Ramaphosa is considering resigning, it would be an unprecedented self-initiated step, rather than a party recall.

And were Ramaphosa to resign, according to precedent it could bring his deputy into the President’s seat. But Mabuza has dropped in the ANC popularity stakes for a seat on the 80-strong ANC NEC, all the way down to 115 in the rankings with 210 votes, according to nominations released on Thursday.

Still, Mabuza may not become President, but acting president under Section 90 of the Constitution. That option had been on the table in February 2018, but was rejected to allow Ramaphosa to appoint his own Cabinet. In 2022, the circumstances are different, particularly if Ramaphosa also relinquishes his CR22 lead position in the ANC elective contest for the party presidency.

The permutations could be numerous – and complicated. The 2022 ANC Nasrec elective conference is just two weeks away, and Ramaphosa cannot be 100% certain of his support in the ANC NEC. Perhaps because of his narrow 2017 Nasrec conference win, it’s been mutable throughout his time at the helm of the governing party.

Though calls for Ramaphosa’s resignation have come fast and furious from the so-called Radical Economic Transformation grouping, the ANC NEC would in its deliberations from Friday have to consider the 2024 elections. And Ramaphosa remains the ANC’s voter drawcard.

He’s consistently been rated higher in public opinion and public trust polls than the party he leads. In the past two elections, including the 2021 municipal poll, it was Ramaphosa on ANC election posters in a strategic decision to appeal to voters.

As President, politicians and advisers hunkered down to consult, weigh up and do whatever necessary, South Africa’s tjatjarag politics maintained running commentary.

Turbulent times lie ahead. DM168

This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R25.