Planetary tightrope — Five takeaways from the latest UN Emissions Gap Report

25 Oct 2024

G20 nations have to lead massive global mobilisation of cutting greenhouse gases, if we are to meet the 1.5°C goal, according to the 2024 UN Environment Programme’s latest emissions report.

“We are teetering on a planetary tightrope.

“Either leaders bridge the emissions gap, or we plunge headlong into climate disaster — with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most,” said António Guterres, United Nations Secretary-General this week, as its annual Emissions Gap Report was released ahead of this year’s UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) that begins in Baku, Azerbaijan, next month.

The Emissions Gap Report 2024, released on Thursday by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), highlights a critical gap between current climate commitments and the necessary actions to limit global warming.

The report, titled Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please! says nations would have to collectively commit to slashing 42% off annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, and 57% by 2035, in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). They will also need to back this up with rapid action — or the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal will be gone within a few years.

This report comes at an important time, because nations’ updated NDCs are to be submitted early next year, ahead of the COP30 climate talks in Brazil.

The UNEP report found that a failure to increase ambition in these new NDCs and start delivering immediately would put the world on course for a temperature increase of 2.6-3.1°C over the course of this century. UNEP emphasises that this would bring debilitating impacts to people, planet and economies.

“As this report rightly puts it, people and planet cannot afford more hot air,” said Guterres.

“The emissions gap is not an abstract notion. There is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters.”

Here are five critical takeaways that South Africans should know about this pivotal report:

1. Global Emissions are at record levels

In 2023, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions hit a new high of 57.1 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent — a 1.3% increase from 2022. This rate of growth surpasses the average from the decade before the Covid-19 pandemic, which saw annual growth of 0.8%.

The rise in emissions comes from nearly every sector, with the power sector (i.e. electricity production) continuing to be the largest global contributor to emissions, followed by transport. International aviation, for example, rebounded sharply with a 19.5% increase in 2023, nearing pre-pandemic levels.

Other sectors with significant emissions growth in 2023 – exceeding 2.5% — include fuel production, road transport, and energy-related industries.

“I think it just shows how difficult the transition is, because we have been seeing record deployment of solar and wind, and still that hasn’t been sufficient,” Anne Olhoff, Chief Climate Advisor at the UNEP Copenhagen Climate Centre and lead author of this report, told Daily Maverick.

Olhoff noted that part of this demand growth has also been driven by extreme weather events, where in some cases, that has lowered the hydropower energy production, for instance, in China.

And at the same time, driving up electricity demand from households during heat waves for cooling.

“So it also shows you how climate change impacts are starting to affect and drive up our energy demand, both through electrification, but also through implications for power production and demand for cooling,” she said.

2. Disproportionate emissions

Despite significant changes in the past 20 years, the report highlights vast disparities in emissions between nations.

The G20 nations accounted for 77% of global emissions, with significant contributions from China, the US and India. South Africa, a G20 member, is part of this collective responsibility.

The six largest GHG emitters — which are China, the US, India, the European Union, the Russian Federation and Brazil — accounted for 63% of global GHG emissions. By contrast, least developed countries accounted for only 3%.

However, South Africa, as a G20 member, is not without blame.

South Africa’s per capita emissions are above the global average, largely due to its heavy reliance on coal, which provides 88% of its electricity.

“This implies that SA has a significant commitment to mitigation of its own,” James Reeler, the senior manager of climate action at WWF South Africa, told Daily Maverick last year.

Interestingly, Reeler pointed out that the top 10% of income earners in SA contributed between four and five times more GHG emissions than the bottom 40% do.

Jesse Burton, a senior energy policy researcher with the Energy Systems Research Group at UCT, noted that SA’s average per capita emissions were very high because of its “strikingly” high coal dependency, with 88% of the country’s electricity coming from coal.

3. NDCs are too weak, and we’re not meeting them

Countries are expected to update their NDCs every five years, and the next round are due early next year, ahead of the COP30 climate talks in Brazil, so this report is coming at a critical time — especially considering that the report warns that nations’ current commitments are grossly inadequate and that immediate action is paramount to avoid catastrophic climate consequences.

NDCs are essentially self-defined promises made by countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change, based on their own capabilities and circumstances.

Read more: UN Says World Is Now on Course for Warming of Up to 3.1C

The report revealed that if nations were to continue with their current policies (not all of which are aligned to meet their own commitments), it would lead to 3.1°C of warming within the century.

With SA’s current policies, the country is projected to decrease emissions by 11% by 2030, compared to emissions in 2019 (before SA created its first NDC).

But if SA followed its NDC, we are meant to reduce our emissions by 19% by 2030.

But the report revealed that even if countries fully implemented their current unconditional and conditional NDCs, it would still lead to 2.6°C of warming within the century.

Therefore, the report emphasises that as nations prepare to submit their updated NDC by February 2025, there is an urgent need for governments to enhance their targets.

“We’re so far from what is needed to limit global warming to levels that we think relatively safe,” said Olhoff.

“We’re all already at 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels and we’re already starting to see all the impacts around the world, and hitting the most vulnerable parts of the world hardest.”

4. Achieving these targets will require at least a six-fold increase in mitigation investments

Areas in particular that are lacking, are renewable energy and efficiency measures, the report found.

“Because South Africa is very fossil fuel-based, there are some obvious potential solutions in terms of strengthening ambition,” reflected Olhoff, explaining that there are proven technologies — like renewable energy — that are cost-competitive with fossil fuels.

Olhoff said that transitioning away from fossil fuels also has other benefits besides limiting warming. She singled out “especially health effects, local air pollution, but also other development goals such as energy access, energy security — which is a problem in large parts of the world, not least of Africa — that could actually be helped through expansion of renewable energy”.

“I don’t think we will ever get to where we need to be if we just make these arguments on climate mitigation grounds — climate mitigation is not going to be a key priority in many developing countries for very good reasons,” she reflected, adding that this is why why developing nations will need financial and technical support to be able to develop paths that provide other economic and social benefits.

5. The cost of inaction will far outweigh the investments needed

The report underscores that costs of inaction will far outweigh the investments needed to transition to a low-carbon economy. Achieving the necessary emissions cuts could cost less than $200 per ton of CO2 equivalent, while failing to act could result in a global temperature increase of 2.6-3.1°C.

This would have devastating implications for economies, communities and ecosystems. South Africa, which is already grappling with socio-economic challenges, stands to gain significantly from a proactive approach to climate action. Investments in renewable energy, efficiency measures and sustainable practices can create jobs, boost economic resilience and enhance overall well-being.

“Climate crunch time is here. We need global mobilisation on a scale and pace never seen before — starting right now, before the next round of climate pledges — or the 1.5°C goal will soon be dead and well below 2°C will take its place in the intensive care unit,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP.

“I urge every nation: no more hot air, please.”

Read more: Global carbon tax urgently needed to manage worsening climate crisis

She urged nations to use the upcoming COP29 talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, to set the stage for stronger NDCs, adding “Even if the world overshoots 1.5°C — and the chances of this happening are increasing every day — we must keep striving for a net-zero, sustainable and prosperous world.

Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved and the ability to rapidly bring down any temperature overshoot.” DM

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South Africa

1. Global Emissions are at record levels

2. Disproportionate emissions

3. NDCs are too weak, and we’re not meeting them

4. Achieving these targets will require at least a six-fold increase in mitigation investments

5. The cost of inaction will far outweigh the investments needed