Politics

Politics, South Africa, Maverick News

The political outlook for South Africa this week — 6 things we’re watching

US President-elect Donald Trump. (Photo: Valerie Plesch / Bloomberg via Getty Images)

19 Jan 2025

This week’s focus is on a call for an inquiry into the Stilfontein miner deaths, the fate of the ANC’s structures in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, Davos, the Cabinet Lekgotla, Trump and a move to amend the B-BBEE codes of conduct.

DA, SACC and Defend our Democracy join calls for Stilfontein deaths probe

The DA MP for mineral and petroleum resources, James Lorimer, has written to President Cyril Ramaphosa calling for a commission of inquiry into the deaths of 78 zama zamas (informal miners) at the Buffelsfontein mine in Stilfontein.

Emancipated miners are rescued from underground during the official rescue operation at a disused gold mine shaft in Stilfontein, around 150 kilometers southwest of Johannesburg, South Africa, 14 January 2025. (Photo: EPA-EFE / KIM LUDBROOK)

Bishop Victor Phalana of the South African Council of Churches (SACC) in North West has called the police’s Operation Vala Umgodi at the mine a “monumental failure”, saying: “To us as a faith community it is clear that as a nation we must have a full account of how this could happen in our country in 2024/5.”

Defend our Democracy, an umbrella civil society organisation, said there had been “wilful negligence” at Stilfontein and supported calls for an inquiry, saying what happened was “an indictment on our collective conscience as a country”.

ANC meets to consider the future of two key provincial structures

A dig-down into the 2024 election results shows the ANC lost because of its performance in two mega-provinces: KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng (less meaningful in party membership but home to a huge voting pool). For months, the ANC’s national executive committee has pondered whether to disband its provincial structures – but the will they, won’t they debate has deepened factionalism. We don’t think the party will, and we’re reporting it this week. Kgothatso Madisa, writing in the Sunday Times, outlined three options: to disband or to ship in elders and seasoned leaders to the two provinces, or a status quo option. (The Sunday Times is paywalled for subscribers.)

The government does Davos

Business and government leaders jet out of South Africa this week to Davos in Switzerland, where 2,500 mostly super-rich people meet to discuss the state of the world every January. South Africa has had an anaemic few years at Davos, where first State Capture and later load shedding were its narratives of decline. This time, President Cyril Ramaphosa lands in the alpine town as chairperson of the G20 group of countries (we host the G20 meeting in November), and a hefty chunk of government leaders will join him as he works to shift the narrative.

World Economic Forum Davos The World Economic Forum's annual meeting begins on Monday, 20 January 2025, in Davos, Switzerland. (Photo: Simon Dawson / Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Team SA will focus on better growth prospects, the end of load shedding, and structural shifts at Transnet to allow private players to run key lines, which means he can tell a different story. The delegation includes a representative group of government of national unity (GNU) leaders, and we hope they will use the opportunity to bond and get over their fractiousness for the betterment of the country. Business leaders will be there in numbers to talk up our game: Team SA is sponsored by Exxaro, Absa, Naspers, Old Mutual, SAB, Anglo-American, the Gauteng Growth and Development Agency and the Development Bank of Southern Africa.

Cabinet Lekgotla

Almost as soon as the delegation returns on Friday, 24 January, they head to the Cabinet Lekgotla in the run-up to the State of the Nation Address on 6 February, effectively starting the political year. On 29 and 30 January, the lekgotla must finalise a medium-term plan for the GNU that should provide more stability and direction.

Trump 2.0

Davos will compete with the inauguration of US President Donald Trump on Monday for the global top story. Later in the week he will Zoom into the World Economic Forum meetings. The US is about to shift on its axis, and whirlwinds will blow across the world because of its heft. Trump’s Africa team is likely to include Peter Pham, whom Peter Fabricius profiles here.

US President-elect Donald Trump. (Photo: Valerie Plesch / Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Trade minister wants R100bn empowerment fund through taxes

City Press and Rapport reported here that Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Parks Tau revealed in Parliament that he wants to amend the B-BBEE codes of conduct to crowd-source a R100-billion fund from a 3% business tax using the enterprise development aspect of the empowerment laws. (City Press is behind the News24 paywall).

It’s not clear if this is in addition to the existing corporate taxes or an addition to the codes. Any new B-BBEE tax will be like pouring cold water on the partnership between government and business, which already sees capital pay additional billions of rands to help keep the lights on, sort out logistics and fund the President’s youth employment service.

If the idea is exercised anytime soon, you can expect the fund to be added to the growing list of items before the GNU clearing house for hiccups and roadblocks in the way of a smooth power-sharing plan. Its agenda is full of pressure points, including the Basic Education Laws Amendment Act, the National Health Insurance and the SABC Bill (which Communications Minister Solly Malatsi has shredded, much to the ANC’s chagrin). DM

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