Pollard to provide calm and control against All Blacks in tricky Cape Town conditions

The 2024 Rugby Championship won’t officially be decided at the DHL Stadium in Cape Town this weekend, but it could be over for the All Blacks.

If the Springboks win with a bonus point, they will need just two points from their final two matches to win the title for the first time since 2019. If the All Blacks lose, they will relinquish the crown, which they have won 20 times and held for the past four years. The Freedom Cup would also go to the Boks for the first time since 2009.

Those are the stakes at play for the second Test of this short All Blacks tour of South Africa. The next time the Kiwis visit will be for a full eight-match tour, including three Tests in 2026.

Titles and trophies are on the line, but the most important aspect of all for the players is beating the old enemy. After last week’s dramatic 31-27 win for the Boks at Ellis Park, there are immediate scores to settle.

Questions and answers

Will the All Blacks finish strongly? Will the Springboks start faster? Who will handle the strong southerly wind forecast to swirl through DHL Stadium best? These and many other questions will be asked and answered by 7pm on Saturday.

Bok coach Rassie Erasmus has shuffled his team again with five personnel changes – only one of which was enforced – despite last week’s positive result.

Why? Well, it’s the way he does things, is the simple answer. Erasmus and his predecessor Jacques Nienaber shared an obsession with building depth – occasionally stacking the odds of winning against themselves in that pursuit.

With Erasmus there is always a plan, a plan for the plan, and another plan for the plan of the plan. These selections are not knee-jerk responses to something he saw last week. They are pre-planned decisions, taken unemotionally with a clear tactical and technical blueprint underpinning them.

Canan Moodie is back for the Boks for his first appearance in 11 months when they face the All Blacks at DHL Stadium on Saturday, 7 September 2024. (Photo: Alex Davidson / Getty Images)

Flyhalf Handré Pollard to start over the impressive Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu? Willie le Roux to start over the bold and dashing Aphelele Fassi?

Only the Boks’ inner circle really knows what the plan is, but we can speculate.

Calm heads

The All Blacks will be desperate after throwing away a 10-point lead in the last 15 minutes at Ellis Park. They have also rejigged their team, moving experienced warriors Beauden Barrett and TJ Perenara to the bench for some cooler heads in the closing stages.

Erasmus has gone the opposite way. He’s selected the old heads to add control and calm in what should be a wild opening quarter as the desperate tourists look for another fast start.

Knowing Cape Town and the DHL Stadium, Erasmus is aware that when the southerly blows, it swirls around the stadium. The Boks have trained in the Green Point venue a couple of times this week. The All Blacks have preferred to stick to Athlone Stadium. That might have been a mistake.

Pollard’s educated boot and zen-like demeanour can give the Boks the ice-cool thinking they need to navigate the opening stages. His proven boot can hopefully assist in building pressure on the All Blacks, either through accumulating points, or keeping them pinned back.

Bok coach Rassie Erasmus has made five changes to the team. (Photo: Grant Pitcher / Gallo Images)

All Black head coach Scott Robertson. (Photo: Gordon Arons / Gallo Images / Getty Images)

Le Roux, playing his 97th Test, might not have the raw pace of his youth, but what he has lost physically he has gained mentally. His rugby brain is in its prime, and for all the Boks’ eye-catching play last weekend they lacked one killer pass or one crucial decision on attack. Le Roux could be the point of difference.

With the sniping Grant Williams starting at scrumhalf, Le Roux will regularly slot into first receiver in second or third phase. The thought of Williams’ quick tempo giving Le Roux an extra half second on the ball to make a decision, is exciting.

Sport being what it is though, the plan and the execution might not play out like the coach hopes. Well, then there is the back-up of the effervescent Feinberg-Mngomezulu and the creativity of Lukhanyo Am on the bench.

Just writing that sentence you realise what a golden age this is for Bok rugby. A team with a backline that is missing Kurt-Lee Arendse and Faf de Klerk through injury, and can afford to leave out Fassi, Makazole Mapimpi, André Esterhuizen, Manie Libbok and Cobus Reinach, underlines how deep the selection pool now is.

And that’s excluding new faces such as Quan Horn, Edwill van der Merwe and Morné van den Berg, who have all earned caps this year.

“They’ve been ultra-consistent,” the fine All Black centre Jordie Barrett said of the Boks this week.

“Their form doesn’t really waver from week to week, and sometimes their selection does. They’ve got a lot of depth in their squad, and whoever (coach Erasmus) puts out there seems to do a job. It’s going to be a big challenge.”

Wing Canan Moodie is back for his first appearance in 11 months after a spate of badly timed injuries. He has a World Cup winners’ medal and the confidence of a settled team. Ditto scrumhalf Jaden Hendrikse, who also hasn’t played a Test in 11 months.

The Bok depth chart is the envy of the rugby world.

ABs shuffle

The All Blacks’ kicking game did cause some trouble for the Boks last week, keeping the home team pinned deep in their territory for long periods of the game.

Seldom would an All Blacks team score four tries and lose a match, but it was testament to the Boks’ composure and resilience that they stayed in the fight and were able to snatch it at the end.

New Zealand coach Scott Robertson knows that his side blew a great chance last week because his bench couldn’t match the Boks’ bomb squad.

Beauden Barrett, who started at fullback last week, was a little off with his tactical kicking. But he still made three line breaks. It’s that game-breaking ability that Robertson wants to unleash in the final quarter. A fresh Beauden against a tiring defence could be interesting.

Elusive All Black fullback Will Jordan will be in action against the Boks at DHL Stadium. (Photo: Phil Walter / Getty Images)

“We didn’t finish the game well last week, and haven’t for a few weeks,” Jordie Barrett said. “Hopefully we can close the game out in the last quarter if we get the opportunity this week. It’s been a big focus.”

Up front the All Blacks have gone with Wallace Sititi at blindside flank in an effort to shore up their physicality.

Robertson was not giving up too much about the Chiefs player, who operated at No 8 during Super Rugby Pacific this year.

“He’s a hell of an athlete. He’s built for these types of games, (has got a) great skills set and he’s really impressed us over the last month,” said Robertson.

The Boks’ starting pack feels more balanced with the tireless Pieter-Steph du Toit back to blindside flank from the second row ,and Eben Etzebeth starting at lock again. Ruan Nortjé enjoyed his best Test at Ellis Park, from his carrying and fringe defence to his lineout management. His confidence will be high.

Superb 

And the same can be said for loose forward Elrigh Louw, whose second-half cameo in Johannesburg was superb. We’re used to seeing Louw carry hard into contact and win metres. He has crossed the gainline from 73% of his 26 carries in the 2024 Rugby Championship, the highest rate of any player with 20-plus carries in the competition this year.

But last week he also showed softer skills. He sidestepped wing Mark Tele’a and flank Samipeni Finau in one eye-catching run.

“The guys were shouting for me to pass, but I can only do one thing at a time,” Louw joked of his stepping ability this week.

The Boks, despite the changes, look settled. Erasmus has a clear plan, vision and expectation regardless of the rotation.

The All Blacks, by contrast, feel like they’re still searching for answers, and in some cases still trying to ask the right questions. They have talent and skill in droves, especially when you consider this week’s wings Sevu Reece and Tele’a didn’t even start last week.

Robertson’s side are individually excellent, but are they collectively more than “very good”? Probably not yet. DM

Teams

South Africa

15 Willie le Roux, 14 Canan Moodie, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Cheslin Kolbe, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Grant Williams, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Ruan Nortjé, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Ox Nché

Reserves: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Kwagga Smith, 20 Elrigh Louw, 21 Jaden Hendrikse, 22 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 23 Lukhanyo Am.

New Zealand

15 Will Jordan, 14 Sevu Reece, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Mark Tele’a, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Cortez Ratima, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane, 6 Wallace Sititi, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Scott Barrett (captain), 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Tamaiti Williams

Reserves: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Sam Darry, 20 Luke Jacobson, 21 TJ Perenara, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Beauden Barrett.

Referee: Matt Carley (England)
Assistant Referees: Andrew Brace (Ireland), Jordan Way (Australia)
Television Match Official: Ian Tempest (England)


Kick-off: 5pm (Supersport)