Projections on pandemic’s path, Strandfontein court case postponed and provinces motivate for Level 3

Covid-19 in South Africa
Infogram

Swipe through the gallery below to view the latest Covid-19 numbers available on 20 May at the district level. All maps are sourced from provincial health departments; however, KwaZulu-Natal did not provide updates by the time of publishing:



South Africans have finally been able to see the work of the SA Covid-19 modelling consortium. The latest models were presented to the media on Tuesday evening, with Health Minister Zweli Mkhize in attendance. Modellers say the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 is expected to grow to 30,000 at best and 54,000 at worst by the end of May. They project that there will be 40,000 deaths by November in a best-case scenario and between 45,000 and 48,000 in a worst-case scenario.

Mkhize said that South Africa is in the amplification phase as hospitalisations and deaths increase. The health department is managing hotspots, building field hospitals and heightening surveillance. Mkhize named the 10 hotspots:

• Cape Town metro;


• Lembe district (KZN);


• Cape Winelands district;


• Nelson Mandela Bay;


• Buffalo City;


• eThekwini Metro;


• Ekurhuleni Metro (all red zones);


• Johannesburg;


• Chris Hani district; and


• The Garden Route district (all orange zones).

The peak of the pandemic is expected to be between early July and early August and ICU capacity will be exceeded. The scale and timing will differ between provinces, districts and sub-districts.

See the full presentation here.

Meanwhile, Gauteng Premier David Makhura said on Tuesday that the entire province is ready to move to Level 3 at the beginning of June. As Chanel Retief and Ayanda Mthethwa report, he pointed out that the province had gone from being the national epicentre with 50% of confirmed cases in March, to 15% of confirmed cases in May. It also has the highest recovery rate. However, on Wednesday he said it is up to the National Coronavirus Command Council to make a final decision.

Premier Sisi Ntombela has also said that the Free State is ready to move to Level 3, but she flagged the Mangaung district as a hotspot that may remain at Level 4. Out of its 165 cases, 141 are in that district and 139 are in Bloemfontein. As Sandisiwe Shoba reports, the province is doing away with mass screening and testing and will adopt targeted testing.

As lockdown Level 3 is discussed, some South Africans remain stuck abroad. About 20 South Africans were left without accommodation after their repatriation flight from Nairobi was postponed by 24 hours on Tuesday. About 160 South Africans have been stuck aboard a number of cruise liners for two months and are desperate to get home. However, stigma and confusing regulations are making their efforts much more complicated.

Gauteng’s informal traders have not received any financial relief, despite President Cyril Ramaphosa outlining a relief plan for informal economy workers nearly a month into the lockdown. As Sumeya Gasa reports, informal trader organisations have written to local government on how to get assistance, but no response has been forthcoming.

The dispute between the City of Cape Town and the South African Human Right Commission over the conditions at the Strandfontein temporary shelter was due to be heard in the Western Cape High Court on Wednesday. However, it was postponed to 9 June after it came to light that a legal representative had tested positive for Covid-19. This comes after an interim interdict, obtained by the City, barring monitors at the shelter was set aside. As Vincent Cruywagen reports, the City was due in court to reply to serious allegations in the court papers submitted by the commission.

Meanwhile, Western Cape authorities were questioned before the legislature about the support the province provides to the homeless during the pandemic and afterwards. As Suné Payne reports, it came to light that Covid-19 budget cuts might be detrimental to efforts helping the homeless in the Western Cape. DM