Quo vadis, Tripartite Alliance? It is difficult to say

25 Jul 2024

Over the past few days, a senior member of the ANC and the leadership of SA’s biggest public sector union, Nehawu, have exchanged insults. While the language has been direct and personal, this dispute might well be about what is probably the defining tension within the liberation movement: whether members of the Tripartite Alliance accept the ANC’s decision to work with the DA in the national government.

The latest exchange of insults began at the weekend, when the ANC’s KwaZulu-Natal secretary, Bheki Mtolo, said Nehawu members were to blame for the poor services many people received at government offices. He mentioned SA Social Security Agency offices, Home Affairs and the Labour Department.

In reply, Nehawu’s KZN secretary, Ayanda Zulu, issued a statement referring to Mtolo as a “madman” and claiming (incorrectly, it appears) that he has a history of mental illness. He gave Mtolo 48 hours to retract his comments.

To be clear, this is a union, representing thousands of nurses, that decided its best possible response to a political statement was to use an insult based on mental illness. In the same breath, it claimed, incorrectly, that it was a “progressive” union. (The term “progressive” is going through a rough time.)

Read more: Look Left, Look Right: What does ‘progressive’ mean in the coalition talks?

In Nehawu’s defence, Zulu also said people received poor government services because of budget cuts and the policy of austerity.

Mtolo responded by telling Nehawu to “jump off a cliff” and refusing to apologise.

He told SAfm that Nehawu claimed the ANC’s decision to work with the DA showed it did not care for “poor black people”. He said, however, that it was Nehawu members who did not care for “poor black people”.

He pointed to how Nehawu members blocked people from accessing hospitals during the union’s last major strike, and in one case, removed a sick baby from a hospital.

Then, Nehawu president Mike Shingange took what must have been a deliberate political decision to respond.

His intervention elevated this argument from a provincial level, involving only Mtolo and Zulu, to a national one.

He also blamed poor government services on budget cuts.

It is tempting to write this off as just the latest in a series of spats between members of the alliance.

After all, it was a whole 14 years ago that then Cosatu general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi told a Nehawu conference that the ANC contained “political hyenas”. It became a phrase that dominated our national discussion for a time.

Read more: Analysis: Vavi bares his fangs again

Blistering attack

However, its context means this is more than just another spat.

Ten days ago, at the Nehawu political school SACP general secretary Solly Mapaila launched a blistering attack on the ANC’s decision to work with the DA and FF+. He said it showed that the “neoliberal” wing was now running the party.

He said that he, the SACP and others in the alliance would have preferred to work with the EFF.

Before the election, he would have had strong support from the other main player here, Cosatu.

Speaking at Cosatu’s May Day rally, the trade union federation’s leader, Zingiswa Losi, said the EFF would be the “better choice” for the ANC as the DA would erode the rights of workers.

But now, Losi is saying something different.

She told TimesLIVE this week: “What is left about the EFF? They voted against the National Health Insurance, they voted against progressive bills in Parliament that Cosatu expected the left to vote in favour of.”

She went even further, defending the right of the chair of the DA’s Federal Council, Helen Zille, to hold her deployees in government to account. She even lashed out at the ANC chair, Mineral Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe, for criticising Zille for attempting to do this.

All of this shows, once again, the tensions within the Tripartite Alliance. It was entirely predictable that the question of working with the DA would be opposed by unions and the SACP.

This is also a reflection of the power dynamic between the ANC on one side, and Cosatu and the SACP on the other.

Its relationship with the ANC has almost defined Cosatu over the years. It was this relationship that led to the expulsion of Numsa from Cosatu (through a meeting of union leaders, not a decision of members), and has caused tension between different unions.

The SACP, despite discussing this question endlessly, is completely dependent on the ANC.

Read more: Red Alert! Red Alert! SACP discusses the unspeakable

However, the ANC’s current leadership can probably shrug off whatever concerns the SACP and Cosatu have.

Waning power

One of the more interesting dynamics of the moment is that as the relative power of the ANC has declined dramatically because of the election results, so too has the relative power of its two alliance partners.

This mirrors the decline of Cosatu’s influence over the years as the number of people belonging to its affiliate unions dropped.

Still, there is evidence that some politicians believe unions have major political power.

As Mbhazima Shilowa reminded us this week, MK has started its own union, the Teachers and Education Workers Union of SA.

MK would not spend the time and effort doing this if there was no political payoff.

As Shilowa pointed out, just forming an alternative union might put pressure on Cosatu’s teaching union, Sadtu, to make a final decision about whether to leave Cosatu and the alliance itself.

Within all of this is yet another dynamic.

One of the great risks the ANC took in accepting the DA as a coalition partner is that just that single decision could weaken the ANC.

If Cosatu and the SACP are important to the ANC, the DA could score a longer-term victory here simply because the ANC now faces so much internal stress.

And so, the DA’s acceptance of this arrangement could hasten the demise of the Tripartite Alliance.

It has been said many times that the results of this year’s elections will lead to huge changes. There are more shake-ups to come. DM

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Blistering attack

Waning power