Race vs unemployment — the changing axis of our politics

It is well known in politics that when planning a campaign, a party will want to choose the ground on which the campaign is fought. If you can determine what the main argument will be, if you can control the ground, you often win.

Because of our history and the racialised inequality which still largely defines our society, race has obviously been the major issue.

Even parties that would lose out because of this, such as the DA, have accepted this. In previous elections, the DA has sometimes simply elected to provoke a discussion about race on the grounds that if it cannot control the subject, it could at least control the timing.

Read more: DA’s flag flambé: A horrible no-good ad for horrible no-good times

There is some evidence that this may now be changing.

This week, the Institute of Race Relations (IRR) released more data from a poll conducted during March (the poll saw 807 respondents comprising a diverse cross-section using Computer Assisted Telephonic Interviews).

While some of the headlines on it, such as the claim that “most” people prefer appointments on merit rather than race, will be hugely contested, other findings are less controversial.

Unemployment, job creation

Among the more interesting findings is that nearly 30% of voters believe that “unemployment and creating jobs” should be the main priority of government.

This is far higher than “illegal immigration” or even “crime and security”, which are seen as the main priority by less than 10% of respondents.

While seeking an objective view of “what is the most important issue” facing a country is probably impossible, it is true that in most democracies, the economy is the most important political issue.

Generally speaking, if an economy is growing quickly, the party in charge will win an election. If an economy is stumbling, it will lose support.

Both the last US election and our last election are examples of this, and there are many, many more.

Inflation rose during the Biden era (largely because of the pandemic), and our economy has not grown significantly in years.

This finding by the IRR follows consistent previous findings and would appear to confirm an old insight in our politics: that if all those who were unemployed voted for one party, that party would dominate our politics.

But strangely, despite this apparent truth, not one of our political parties has been able to gain traction with an economic plan.

From time to time, some parties have played around with their own version of a “New Deal” that was so effective for President Franklin Roosevelt during the Great Depression.

Groups like the DA, Action SA, and even the ANC, from time to time, have claimed to have a plan that would finally move the needle on our economy.

And yet, despite the obvious need for it, none has been able to make this the axis of our politics.

‘Liberation dividend’ wanes

Perhaps this might change.

As support for the ANC recedes, and as it loses political power as a result, so it loses the ability to control the narrative.

Bluntly, the “liberation dividend” for the party has run out. Attempts to talk about the past, to focus on what it did during the struggle, no longer appear to have the power they once did.

At the same time, due to its internal contradictions (and the fact that it is so diverse), it has not been able to craft a new message. There is no singular message that it is sending to voters to encourage them to stay with the party.

What is less clear is whether this will result in less support for programmes like BEE.

While the IRR says this is the case, there are certainly factors that could make it true.

It could be that changing attitudes are a function of both the weakening of the race-based narrative and the focus on our past.

But it may also be a reaction to perceived corruption relating to deployment, and how so many people appear to have been appointed to jobs without being properly qualified.

Even former Chief Justice Raymond Zondo has claimed that cadre deployment is unconstitutional.

Failing government services

However, this feeling might also be driven by frustration that so many government services are failing. For many voters, the issue may no longer be about who is getting certain jobs, but whether the jobs are being done and the services are working.

This plays into what could become another axis in our politics – which party is better able to provide services.

The DA has tried to bring this issue to the fore, to make it the ground on which elections are fought, for many years.

It is true that on an objective basis, many services appear to work better for many people in the Western Cape.

Read more: Head and shoulders above — Cape Town’s success could become a key issue in 2024 elections

But this is also highly contested; the Western Cape received more money from the apartheid government in the past (for racist reasons), and it does not have any former homelands.

The DA’s attempts to improve service delivery in other metros where it has governed, such as Tshwane, do not appear to have won significant traction with voters so far.

Unpredictable politics

It is also entirely possible that other issues come to the fore.

Our democracy is nothing if not unpredictable. It is entirely possible, for example, that someone new to politics might capture the public imagination in a way that is currently unimaginable.

The fact that there is so much consistent speculation that someone like Patrice Motsepe or Mcebisi Jonas could mount a campaign for the leadership of the ANC shows an appetite for something new.

Both in the US and Lesotho, business people with no previous interest in politics have risen to the top job.

Read more: Game changer? Difficult but not impossible, Matekane’s Lesotho win may show the way to SA’s Patrice Motsepe

Were someone new to enter our politics in a big way, the new dividing line, the new axis of our politics, could then be whether you support a rich person being President or not.

It should also be remembered that while some may wish for issues around race to no longer dominate our politics, our racialised inequality means the issue will always come back.

Just as issues around land ownership ebb and flow in our politics, so will race.

In the US, many thought the election of Barack Obama in 2008 marked the end of race as a political issue.

How wrong they were. It was arguably the single biggest factor behind the election of Trump both in 2016 and last year, and is driving his agenda right now.

There is plenty of evidence that our society is changing. But there is no difference between South Africans and anyone else. Everyone wants a better life for themselves and their children.

Voters can see that economic growth and job creation are key to this.

The opportunity for someone to make this the new axis of our politics may now be opening. But someone will have to grab it and use it effectively. DM