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Ramaphosa appears safe and unlikely to be seriously challenged … for now

Ramaphosa appears safe and unlikely to be seriously challenged … for now
Stephen Grootes
By Stephen Grootes
10 Aug 2022
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There are many dynamics swirling around President Cyril Ramaphosa at the moment. Some of these are murky, some are moving in contradictory directions. As a result, both his enemies and his supporters are likely to redouble their efforts regarding him in the near future.

The real test of these events is the control he has over them, and while he may be in control of some processes, he could have virtually no control over others. It is these that he will fear the most, and yet they could be the most important.

Last week, National Assembly Speaker Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula gave the go-ahead for the formation of a three-person panel of experts to investigate whether there is any case against Ramaphosa over the Phala Phala scandal. As constitutional law scholar Professor Pierre de Vos has pointed out, there is no discretion here and Mapisa-Nqakula had to continue this process.

Meanwhile, the Sunday Times has reported that both Ramaphosa and his former head of security Major-General Wally Rhoode have denied the claims made by the person who first published them. They say that former spy boss Arthur Fraser is not telling the truth about what happened.

Then, on Wednesday, on News24, came a report suggesting that the amount of money stolen was about $600,000, rather than the $4-million claimed by Fraser, and that it came from the sale of one buffalo.  

At the same time, we are now just days away from the tenth anniversary of the Marikana massacre. It is likely that this too will be used, in a political way, to blame Ramaphosa for what happened at the time — despite the fact that the Farlam Commission said that it could not find that he was the “cause of the massacre”.

However, what is likely to be much more important to Ramaphosa is not the parliamentary process or even the pressure from the Marikana commemorations.

Rather, it is developments in the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal.

On Wednesday, Business Day published a report quoting the newly elected leader of the KZN ANC, Siboniso Duma. As the paper reported, he said: “We want to be convinced of what type of leader the ANC needs, someone who will lead organisational renewal, someone to drive SA’s economy in the right direction. President Ramaphosa may well be that person. If we are convinced, the ANC in KZN may well support him for a second term.” 

This is the first possible suggestion anywhere that the ANC in KZN could support Ramaphosa at the ANC’s election in December, or at the least withhold support for someone to stand against him.



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However, within hours of that interview being published, the KZN ANC’s provincial secretary, Bheki Mtolo, told SAfm that the quote was not correct. He angrily accused Business Day political editor Hajra Omarjee of deliberately misquoting Duma.

He also said that no one leader in the KZN could speak on the succession debate until the branches of the province had held their nomination meetings and decided who they would support.

Omarjee is sticking by her story, saying that she had recorded Duma’s comments accurately.

But the angry nature of Mtolo’s reaction and the tone of a statement released on the subject suggest that there is real frustration with the story and that in fact there may be much more going on here.

A bigger strategy


As Zakhele Ndlovu, a political science lecturer at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, suggested on Newzroom Afrika on Wednesday afternoon, this may even be part of a much bigger strategy. Ndlovu suggested that the KZN ANC may have realised that it could end up alone in the national party, as all the other provinces have, so far, backed a second term for Ramaphosa. And that, despite the singing of the song Wenzeni uZuma while Ramaphosa was speaking during the KZN ANC conference, it may in the end fall into line with the other provinces.

This is because of the potential political cost of standing alone.

But it could also be attributed to the simple fact that there are deep divisions within the KZN ANC. Some may want to oppose Ramaphosa at all costs, while others want to play a more strategic and longer game.

It is also clear that the 2024 general election is a major factor in these calculations and that the ANC could actually lose outright control in KwaZulu-Natal.

All of this gets to the heart of the dynamics around Ramaphosa.

Perhaps the best way to understand how they affect him is to ask what he has control over and what he does not.

It is likely that he does have some political control over the parliamentary process.

This is not to suggest that he could control independent experts, but that in the end, it would surely be a panel dominated by ANC MPs that would make key decisions. As De Vos suggests, it is unlikely that ANC MPs would ever vote to impeach Ramaphosa. Certainly, only a few ANC MPs voted to remove Jacob Zuma as President despite the clear and public evidence of his role in State Capture in 2017. It seems unlikely that they would vote to remove Ramaphosa now.

The same may be true, to an extent, about the issues raised by Marikana. Any legal bid to put pressure on Ramaphosa may well founder on the rocks of the Farlam findings.

That said, 10 years later, Marikana is an open wound in our society, which has not yet started healing. One of the key aspects of that healing may well be a proper apology from Ramaphosa for his role in the events leading to the massacre. This has not happened, and there are no indications that it will happen any time soon, even if the 10-year commemoration events may be an ideal moment for it.

Beyond Ramaphosa’s control


The complicated politics of the KZN ANC appear to be beyond Ramaphosa’s control. There, it is clear that Zuma still has much power, and there are many dynamics that Ramaphosa cannot necessarily influence.

At the same time, it must also be true that for the moment, Ramaphosa’s power in the state comes from his power within the ANC. If he is able to walk into the December leadership conference uncontested, or facing only a weak candidate, then his political power would remain assured.

All of this goes back to the question likely to become more important in our politics over the next few years: If not Ramaphosa, then whom?

It is still not clear that there is anyone in the ANC who could take over. This is because, as was the case when pressure was mounting against Zuma in 2017, the factions cannot agree on a suitable candidate. Just as there is currently no obvious candidate for the position of deputy leader of the ANC in December, so it is true that there is no obvious person to challenge and potentially take over from Ramaphosa.

And while there could still be more damaging information to come from the Phala Phala scandal and potentially, other events, Ramaphosa is likely to remain safe until that happens.

However, this also depends on his ability to control events and what happens in KZN, where, for example, a stronger candidate could emerge. But, barring the unexpected, his position appears relatively secure.

At least, for the moment. DM

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