Questions raised after Ramokgopa starts procurement process for 2,500MW of nuclear power

In a media briefing on Tuesday, Minister of Electricity, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa confirmed all the “suspensive conditions” to start procuring 2,500MW of new nuclear power immediately. Zizamele Mbambo, Deputy Director General for Nuclear Energy in the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) said the first unit will be commissioned somewhere between 2032 and 2033.

The announcement comes amid escalating concerns about the country's energy security, the worst year of power outages since the electricity crisis first began over a decade ago and the need to transition to less carbon-intensive methods of electricity generation.

The announcement comes at a pivotal time for South Africa’s energy sector as the country grapples with a nearly two-decade-long energy crisis in its worst year on record, characterised by rolling blackouts and an overreliance on aging coal-fired power stations. The announcement is in line with government's now outdated Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2019, which envisaged 2,500MW of nuclear power by 2030.

That IRP says in “decision 8” that the government should “commence preparations for a nuclear build programme to the extent of 2,500MW at a pace and scale that the country can afford because it is a no-regret option in the long term.”

Speaking on Tuesday morning, Ramokgopa explained that despite the DMRE’s intentions to soon publish the updated IRP for public comment, “this exercise we’re doing now is pursuant to what sits in the IRP 2019 and that still remains — as I stand before you — as valid. And also when you go to 2023, if you look at the generation sources, nuclear is still a significant part of this and this is going to fall within that.” 

Importantly, he explained, all of the preconditions to procure nuclear energy have been satisfied. One of these conditions is that “new nuclear power be procured through an engineering, procurement and construction contract — what we call an EPC contract.” 

The minister continued that “DMRE submitted the report to the regulator addressing these suspensive conditions in July of 2023. Of course, Nersa (National Energy Regulator of South Africa) still had an obligation to satisfy itself if the response from the DMRE to the suspensive conditions are sufficient for Nersa to consider giving this process the green light. And I am happy to indicate that on the 30th of August 2023, Nersa considered the DMRE’s submission and concluded that the suspensive conditions had been satisfactorily addressed.” 

“Essentially what Nersa then said was that ‘we are giving you the go-ahead to proceed’. So, to give a legal effect to the ministerial determination for the procurement of new nuclear capacity of August 2020, the determination and Nersa’s concurrence will be gazetted. So now we’re starting the process of gazetting. So what we are triggering now, is essentially a procurement process. So we’re going out to ensure that we’re able to get that additional 2,500 megawatts of nuclear capacity to ensure that we’re able to meet the issues of national security and energy sovereignty.”

Ramokgopa added that, in his estimation, “this is a significant milestone because we know that historically, in the recent past, the process was mired in controversy. Now we’re happy that we’ve been able to iron out the issues related to how the procurement process needs to unfold, we’ve met the regulatory requirements as per Nersa’s legal requirement and also now we have concurrence of Nersa.”

Read more in Daily Maverick: How the Russian nuclear deal would have taken South Africa to the brink

Daily Maverick previously reported that a  report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace titled “Nuclear Enrichment: Russia’s Ill-Fated Influence Campaign in South Africa” explained how Ecodefense!, a Russian environmental non-government organisation, had leaked a copy of the confidential September 2014 agreement between South Africa and Russia to two South African activists.

“The contents of the document made it difficult for the government to convince anyone that it was conducting proper tender-based bids from French, South Korean, and US firms, let alone subjecting the deal to parliamentary review.

“The activists, Makoma Lekalakala and Liz McDaid, won considerable acclaim for stirring grassroots opposition and organising legal challenges,” the authors wrote. 

Read more in Daily Maverick: How South Africans thwarted secret Putin/Zuma nuclear deal

Activists’ suspicions raised

Scant details from officials