Ramaphosa’s energy plan will add 1,950MW in the next three months – not enough to end rolling blackouts

President Cyril Ramaphosa’s energy plan, which embraces the private sector in resolving South Africa’s perennial electricity crisis, is set to add nearly 2,000 megawatts (MW) over the next three months, which is not enough to make a dent in or alleviate crippling bouts of Eskom power cuts.  

At worst, Eskom faces a shortage of up to 6,000MW of electricity as many of its creaking power stations are susceptible to breakdowns – as seen in early July when rolling blackouts were pushed up to Stage 6 due to workers of the power utility downing tools. 

The interventions made by Ramaphosa to deregulate the energy sector and include the private sector to play a major role in ending the 14-year-old electricity crisis are set to yield an energy supply of about 1,950MW in the next three months. This, arguably, still creates an energy supply shortfall of about 4,000MW (on the worst days of power cuts), placing South Africa in the precarious position of facing further bouts of rolling blackouts that cripple the economy and stunt investment potential.  

Most of the energy interventions proposed by Ramaphosa are likely to start making a dent in rolling blackouts by 2023, implying that they are here to stay for another 12 months.  

Read more in Daily Maverick: “Here it is: Ramaphosa’s ‘energy action plan’ to end SA’s rolling blackouts”

During a press briefing on Monday, Ramaphosa’s Cabinet ministers, including Gwede Mantashe (mineral resources and energy), Pravin Gordhan (public enterprises), Enoch Godongwana (finance), Ebrahim Patel (trade, industry, and competition), Bheki Cele (police), and Barbara Creecy (forestry and fisheries) provided more details about the President’s energy plan.  

Gordhan, who is responsible for Eskom’s operations, said nearly 2,000MW of energy would be added to the national grid by allowing independent power producers (IPPs) to provide solar and wind power, making regulatory exemptions and negotiating with neighbouring countries to supply South Africa with their surplus power.  

Mantashe is responsible for ensuring that surplus power from existing IPPs can be bought. Up to 1,000MW are potentially available in the next three months, which can be connected to the grid. There is potential for another 600MW available to be added to the grid — allowable through certain regulatory exemptions such as dropping localisation requirements that are built into the ongoing process to procure more electricity from IPPs. 

Gordhan said there had been negotiations with neighbouring countries to get between 100MW and 200MW to become available in a month, depending on the contracting mechanisms. Potentially, 150MW from gas can be processed in Mozambique and become available in the next three months. These interventions are set to generate about 1,950MW of energy, which has the potential to power more than 100,000 homes all year round.  

Big changes from next year