Rassie’s mind games ensure Boks start marquee series against All Blacks as favourites

29 Aug 2024

The Boks will — unusually — start as favourites against the All Blacks when the two sides clash at Ellis Park on Saturday.

There’s been no shortage of drama and entertainment in the build-up to the Freedom Cup series between South Africa and New Zealand.

Rassie Erasmus, as ever, has played the part of ringmaster-cum-magician to perfection, using his weekly media briefings to provoke, distract and confuse the opposition.

Erasmus held court in Johannesburg on Tuesday, where he announced a Springbok team that is missing six frontline locks. At the same time, he suggested that veteran Eben Etzebeth might recover ahead of the clash at Ellis Park.

On Wednesday, Etzebeth was cleared from a knee injury and named on the bench — a change that could alter the way that both teams approach the contest.

Where have we seen this before?

Rassie controls the narrative

Erasmus assumed the familiar role of agent provocateur in the lead-up to the two-game series against Ireland in July.

After publishing a probable Ireland side on social media, he went on to highlight the lack of experience in the touring party at a press conference in Pretoria.

Assistant coach Tony Brown listed the virtues of Ireland flyhalf Johnny Sexton — who retired after the 2023 World Cup — before forgetting the name of the incumbent, Jack Crowley.

The mistake was deliberate, and the underlying message was obvious. The 24-year-old would be hard-pressed to orchestrate a famous win at Loftus Versfeld, where the Boks boast a formidable record.

Not that these attempts to control the narrative had any impact on Andy Farrell.

The Ireland coach laughed off Erasmus’ attempts to unsettle his players, before applauding his opposite number for generating additional interest in the series.

Six weeks later, and Erasmus is at it again. This time, the All Blacks are the target.

Robertson on the back foot

Coach Scott Robertson has already commented on the Boks’ perfect start to the Rugby Championship — two bonus-point wins against the Wallabies — and has credited Erasmus for his “smart” selections.

The Boks rotated their squad in their recent matches in Australia, and received some answers regarding their less experienced players and combinations with a view to the 2027 World Cup.

Unlike Farrell, Robertson is in no position to laugh off Erasmus’ jibes. He has reason to doubt his team’s chances of winning the matches in Johannesburg and Cape Town.

Much was made about Ireland’s capitulation at the 2023 World Cup, and that criticism will continue until they win a quarterfinal at the showpiece tournament.

And yet, their overall record speaks to their quality and consistency.

Under Farrell, Ireland have won two Six Nations titles as well as a historic series in New Zealand. More recently, they drew a series with the Boks — and became just the second Irish team to win a Test on South African soil.

While Ireland have been on the rise for the better part of six years, the All Blacks have been on the decline.

Many in New Zealand hope that Robertson — who was a serial winner at Super Rugby level — will take them back to the top.

It may be a few seasons yet before they realise that ambition, given Robertson’s lack of Test experience, and the fact that the All Blacks are rebuilding following the retirements of legends such as Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock and Aaron Smith.

Robertson won seven consecutive Super Rugby titles with the Crusaders by placing an emphasis on the scrum and lineout. While the Cantabrians were better known and loved for their explosive backs during the Robertson era, experts often highlighted the power of the pack and the input of forwards coach Jason Ryan.

Ryan has been with the All Blacks since mid-2022, and was largely responsible for the 35-23 win against the Boks at Ellis Park that season.

The Boks got their revenge at Twickenham in 2023, when a dominant scrum and maul forced the All Blacks to concede a slew of penalties and cards. South Africa went on to win that game 35-7, as well as the next meeting, the World Cup final in Paris.

All Blacks stretched following MacDonald departure

What would Robertson and Ryan have made of Erasmus’ antics this week?

As was the case in the lead-up to the first Ireland series, there was a subtle reference by Erasmus to an issue that has the potential to compromise the All Blacks over the next fortnight.

The All Blacks were rocked last week by the departure of attack coach Leon MacDonald. While reports in New Zealand suggest that Robertson and MacDonald have been at loggerheads for some time, the decision to part ways on the eve of such an important series in South Africa could have dire consequences for the team.

Robertson has instructed his other assistants to absorb MacDonald’s responsibilities. The All Blacks’ coaching resources are stretched, and the situation may have been exacerbated by Erasmus’ team changes over the past few days.

The coaches and analysts would have done their homework on the Boks ahead of this series, and would have kept the South Africans’ lengthy injury list in mind.

With Etzebeth left out of the team on Tuesday, and three loose forwards named on the Bok bench, the All Blacks may have formulated a strategy to attack a perceived weakness.

Etzebeth’s “miraculous” recovery from a knee injury on Wednesday, however, would have forced the All Blacks to change tack.

Six forwards have been included on the Bok bench, with Etzebeth set to play lock in the second stanza, and Kwagga Smith and Elrigh Louw likely to bolster the back row.

Marco van Staden, who was initially listed among a “second loose trio” on the bench — a ploy that may have hinted at a high-tempo approach — has dropped out of the matchday squad.

Pieter-Steph du Toit will start the game at lock, but Erasmus may move the versatile player to blindside flank later in the match. Nobody would have forgotten Du Toit’s game-breaking defensive display in last year’s World Cup final — least of all All Blacks centre Jordie Barrett, who was on the receiving end of several brutal hits.

Robertson may have suspected that Etzebeth would return and that the Bok team dynamic may have been altered as a result.

Even so, he and his coaching team would have had to prepare for both possibilities — a Bok team without Etzebeth, as well as a South African side with the double World Cup-winner in tow — and that may have compromised the visitors’ preparation in other areas.

It’s a minor victory for Erasmus, who has sought to exploit the situation within the All Blacks coaching ranks by adding to their workload.

Protecting the rookies

Overall, Erasmus has succeeded in hogging the spotlight. His team, which includes a few potentially susceptible rookies, has been allowed to prepare without hindrance.

Can the 22-year-old flyhalf Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu lead the Boks to their first win over the All Blacks at Ellis Park in 10 years?

Can flanker Ben-Jason Dixon make the step up in intensity, and can No 5 Ruan Nortjé orchestrate a successful lineout performance?

Will fullback Aphelele Fassi rise to the occasion, and will Brown’s more attacking approach yield the desired result?

These are the questions that have been played down this week, even though they suggest that the injury-hit Boks are more vulnerable than some may care to admit.

But in light of what we’ve seen in the build-up, they are the better-prepared side — mentally as well as physically.

Thanks to Erasmus, they will start this monumental series as favourites. DM

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South Africa

Rassie controls the narrative

Robertson on the back foot

All Blacks stretched following MacDonald departure

Protecting the rookies