Rebellion and the Presidency, Part One

Since January 2018, forces within the ANC have been trying to torpedo the top leadership of the ANC. Then, Vincent Myeni of the party’s Moses Mabhida region summonsed its Top Six to court, claiming electoral irregularities at its watershed conference in December 2017, which saw Cyril Ramaphosa claim a narrow victory of just 179 votes.

Myeni has subsequently gone AWoL and the court action has run aground, but a challenge to the conference vote is still top of the arsenal of a faction that remains active.



Photo by Sunday Times

At the weekend, the Sunday Times published this bombshell photograph of former president Jacob Zuma with the ANC’s Secretary-General and former Free State premier Ace Magashule at the Maharani hotel in Durban – reportedly for a meeting to plot to oust his successor President Cyril Ramaphosa. They are joined by former North West premier Supra Mahumapelo who faced a party putsch earlier in 2018, and the ANC Women’s League secretary-general, Meokgo Matuba.

These parties are planning to contest the ANC conference outcome, reported Qaanitah Hunter and Jeff Wicks. In Zuma’s hand is a file, presumably containing the master plan.

How big is the fightback against Ramaphosa and how likely will the plan be to get rid of him?

An anatomy of a fightback

Ramaphosa has faced off against a faction coalescing around the remnant authority of Zuma since January and almost every national executive committee meeting he attends is a nightmare, say insiders.

He has faced repeated threats of removal or recall. The only meeting where a motion of no confidence in an ANC president can happen is a national general council, which is held between national conferences. The next one is slated only for early in 2020, but the faction opposed to Ramaphosa has already repeatedly raised the threat.

It was partly this threat which pushed Ramaphosa to make the shock late-night announcement on 31 July that the party would support a constitutional amendment to expropriate land without compensation, say ANC leaders.

At the heart of the faction destabilising Ramaphosa are parts of the KwaZulu-Natal party leadership (still a powerful heartland of the ANC) as well as groups in the North West and the Free State provincial wings of the ANC. This used to be the so-called Premier League faction, but deputy president David Mabuza threw in his lot with Ramaphosa for a position as South Africa’s number two.

The photograph reflects the now dominant coalition of the wounded: the architects of the fightback are symbolised by Zuma, Magashule and Mahumapelo, along with the support of the Women’s League, although Matuba may be there because she is also a power-broker from the North West. Matuba was so angry at being outed as part of the meeting that she sent an image of a gun to Hunter by WhatsApp.

An ANC strategist aligned to Ramaphosa says this camp is feeling threatened because its supply lines of funds and rents are under threat: the North West and Free State provincial treasuries are largely under the administration of the national government, and Mahumapelo, like Zuma, has lost state power. In KwaZulu-Natal, Ramaphosa has succeeded in putting in place a provincial secretariat evenly split between factions.

President Cyril Ramaphosa and KZN ANC leader Sihle Zikalala in Durban on September 8. Photo: ANC Twitter