Nearly 39.7 million people in South Africa are eligible to vote but over 11 million did not register. Of the 27.7 million registered voters, only 16.2 million went to the polls. Was it that they didn’t care or was it that they weren’t given a reason to and decided to boycott?
On 29 May 2024, 16.2 million out of a registered 27.7 million South Africans participated in the general elections, which saw the lowest voter turnout in the country’s democratic history.
Over 11 million registered voters did not turn up for the provincial and national legislative election. Despite the election season rush to win over a sceptical electorate, the truth is that the most influential bloc of people was the non-voter. For the first time since 1994, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) received less than 50% of the total vote.
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As announced by the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) on 2 June 2024, no political party secured an outright majority with the ANC having received 40.2%, a decline of 17% compared to the 2019 election result of 57.5%. The Democratic Alliance (DA) received 21.8%, only a marginal increase of 1% from the 2019 result which stood at 20.8%. Former President Jacob Zuma’s newly formed uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK party), received 14.6% of the national vote, while the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) got 9.5%, a decrease of 1.3% from the 2019’s 10.8%.
No political party achieved a majority of the 400 National Assembly seats therefore a coalition government needed to be formed, a government of national unity (GNU). This has seen the re-election of President Cyril Ramaphosa for a second and final term.
In this article, I take a deep dive to unearth and explain the frightening record low turnout itself, a clear threat to South Africa’s young democracy.
Why the low turnout: the not-so-silent majority
The seventh democratic general elections took place amid perennial concerns of poverty, corruption, unemployment, inequality, crime, a protracted energy crisis and grossly inadequate service delivery across the country. There has also been increased distrust not only in the political class but also in the IEC.
A voter satisfaction survey conducted by the IEC, in partnership with the Human Sciences Research Council, found that only 45% of the 13,155 people interviewed said they were confident that their votes would be counted accurately. This is down from 60% in 2019.
Nearly 39.7 million people in South Africa are eligible to vote but over 11 million did not register. Of the 27.7 million registered voters, only 16.2 million went to the polls. Was it that they didn’t care (voter apathy?) or was it that they weren’t given a reason to and decided to boycott? Could it have been a matter of voter suppression, undesirable politicians or an electoral system that makes it meaningless to vote?
Read more in Daily Maverick: SA youth not apathetic but no longer believe elections are best path to change
As many South Africans have expressed, there are a myriad of reasons as to why people decided to boycott the election, key among them being that they wanted to punish the political class for serving its selfish interests and abandoning everyday challenges affecting the ordinary citizens.
Most worryingly however, and for the purposes of this article, is the lack of trust in state institutions and the impact it has on electoral and participatory democracy.
When voters vote with their feet
The electorate’s fiercest disappointment, according to political analysts, was aimed at the ruling ANC in a bid to hold the former liberation movement accountable on key issues. The ANC campaign was met with a cold shoulder in many areas of the country, as disgruntled and disillusioned voters voiced their displeasure at the way the party has left many promises unfulfilled.
President Cyril Ramaphosa, who was swept to power on a “New Dawn” promise to galvanise private sector investment to put the economy on a robust growth path, has not matched his electoral promises with reform. In the process, South African finances have been stretched to the brink while the unemployment rate among young individuals (aged 15-34 years) is at a record 45.5%.
I agree with Ronak Gopaldas, a political economist, “pracademic”, and Director at Signal Risk, who once said:
“Democracy, with all its checks and balances, impedes growth, they suggest… but the argument misses a key point: to maintain this grand bargain with citizens, governments must improve the lives of their people, otherwise the centre does not hold.”
Another classic example is the Indian general election held from 19 April to 1 June 2024. After a decade in power, Narendra Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata party lost its parliamentary majority, dealing an unexpected blow to the prime minister and forcing him to negotiate with coalition partners to retain power.
According to The Economist, “a sense that the economy is not delivering for ordinary people may have been a big factor: despite strong growth figures, voters cited inflation and unemployment as concerns”.
A congested voting field and overwhelmed voters
A record 70 political parties participated in the South African elections. It was also the first general election to allow independent candidates (11) to run for the National Assembly. While President Ramaphosa argues that this is an indication that a multiparty system is flourishing, the opposite could be true.
The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (Idea) believes that the number of parties that contest an election can affect voter turnout by either providing more options to voters, or by confusing voters and making it difficult for them to judge whether their vote will have the desired impact or outcome.
Voter suppression, voting irregularities and voter disenfranchisement
Voter suppression could also be a contributing factor. Ahead of the 2021 municipal elections and the subsequent 2024 general elections, the IEC introduced voter management devices which they said would make the registration process fast and easy and prevent voter fraud such as double voting. However, on election day, there were various reports of the voter management devices glitching at numerous voting stations across the country.
In some areas, potential voters reportedly left before casting their votes after having to wait in long queues or failing to find their names on the voters’ roll. This was confirmed by SABCNews which reported that they witnessed some voters at the Mthatha City Hall voting station in the Eastern Cape leaving the voting station after they had failed to find their names on the voters’ roll.
It is however unclear if all the affected voters returned later to cast their ballots.
Daily Maverick also reported that some party agents expressed disappointment with frustrations caused by issues relating to voter management devices, ballot paper shortages, ballot box shortages, long queues and other issues with the IEC’s systems. Others had to wait for six hours before the voter management devices could work despite assurance by the IEC that the machines would work even when offline. Other voting irregularities included that voting stations did not open on time.
While the introduction of technology to ease the electoral process is commendable, in future, the IEC must ensure that such technology is preceded by adequate training of presiding officers to ensure compliance with the African Union’s Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance and its Principles Governing Elections. Both place emphasis on the credibility of electoral infrastructure.
Notwithstanding the above-noted technical glitches and operational challenges, the IEC must be hailed for managing to deliver on its mandate as set down by Section 190 of the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa.
The outcome was generally acceptable, legitimate and reflective of the will of those who turned up to vote.
Why participatory, inclusive democracy matters
South Africa has traditionally been among the few African countries that hold regular and relatively democratic elections with high levels of integrity. Since democracy in 1994, its elections have been consistently judged legitimate, free and fair. But over the last few years, trust in the IEC has gradually declined and according to Prof Pregala Pillay of the School of Public Leadership at Stellenbosch University, the lack of trust can be perceived as one of the key reasons for a large number of registered citizens not voting:
“The lack of trust in political institutions and individuals holding political power such as the President, has a direct negative effect on the voting patterns in the country.”
A pre-election survey that was published by Afrobarometer, a non-partisan survey research network that provides reliable data on African experiences and evaluations of democracy, governance, and quality of life, revealed that only 36% were satisfied with the way in which democracy is functioning in South Africa. According to the survey report, South Africans’ low levels of trust in public institutions signal a weakening of democratic norms.
In 2016, the Afrobarometer survey revealed that “increasing dissatisfaction with South Africa’s current leadership has spilled over into waning support for democracy itself”.
The empirical evidence relates the story concretely. In 1999, of the 18 million registered, 16.2 million voted. In 2009, the number of registered voters had increased to 23.1 million but only 17.9 million voted. In the 2014 elections, there were 25.3 million registered voters but only 18.4 million voted. In 2019, of the 26.8 million registered voters, 17.7 million turned up.
Conclusion
The 2024 General Elections may be done and dusted but the legacy they have left is significant. The record low voter turnout should worry everyone concerned with the health of South Africa’s democracy.
If left unchecked, this trend, where the electorate is increasingly seeing no value in participating in elections, will have dire effects on the country’s electoral democracy. As Professor William Gumede, Executive Chairperson of Democracy Works Foundation aptly said:
“The future of our democracy is at stake on multiple levels, because if we don’t get voters to return to the ballot box and begin to vote tactically, we will have continual impunity and lack of accountability, which will continually give us lack of service delivery and so on.”
Political parties, the IEC and other relevant players need to work on restoring public confidence and trust by improving any lacking parts towards free, fair and credible elections before the holding of another election.
Elections are the bedrock of a democracy and good governance, and they can only be meaningful if they meet minimum standards, of which voter participation is key. DM