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Rolling blackouts — now is the time for all good mayors and premiers to come to the aid of the country

Roland Ngam
By Roland Ngam
19 Sep 2022
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In South Africa, the provinces get 42% of all non-interest expenditure while local government gets 9.6%. Unfortunately, we often forget about this because everybody is focused on finding out what Ramaphosa and Gwede Mantashe are doing.

Eskom has raised rolling blackouts to Stage Six and once again, people are asking the dreaded question: can the entire system collapse at some stage? You see, switching almost the entire system on and off several times a day is not prudent.

It is hard not to ask such questions when those in charge of the power stations repeatedly understate the problem. On 11 September, Eskom announced Stage Two rolling blackouts and explained it on loss of generation units at Arnot, Majuba, Tutuka and Ingula.

Stage Two quickly escalated a few days later to Stages Three and Four and then suddenly, on Saturday morning, Eskom CEO André de Ruyter announced that the generation network had lost anything between 22,000MW and 24,000MW.

The number of times that generation units are tripping poses a national threat to the South African system. Manufacturing cannot grow this way. Offices have to remain closed for long periods and the losses continue to accumulate.

The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) estimates that South Africa lost 1,798 Gigawatt hours (GWh) of electricity in 2020 and 2,455GWh in 2022. The CSIR also estimates that the country has lost at least R1-trillion since 2007 due to rolling blackouts. The figure could be double that if we factor things like relocation of investments to other countries, reduction in manufacturing capacity due to unavailability of power and so on.

Two things need to be mentioned as to why there are more rolling blackouts now than between 2011 and 2017. Under the Zuma administration, the philosophy was to do everything to ensure that the lights stayed on. That strategy has its merits. At the same time, it comes with challenges given the age of South Africa’s coal fleet. Which brings us to the Ramaphosa era.

When Ramaphosa took office, a decision was made to increase long-postponed maintenance while vastly expanding the country’s generation capacity and, in some cases — thanks to COP money — mothballing or outright decommissioning some coal capacity.

Beyond the doom and gloom, one thing needs to be said: South Africa is expanding its generation capacity now faster than it has ever done since the republic was founded. About 2,400MW of electricity has been connected to the grid and by the end of next year, a further 2,600MW should come onstream — all from renewables.

Eskom installed about 36,000MW of generation capacity between 1960 and 1994. Since 1994, it has added just about half of that capacity, despite the government making access to power a human right (about 87% of South Africans now have access to electricity according to the International Renewable Energy Agency, compared to just under 40% prior to 1994). Energy consumption in South Africa is four times the average energy consumption per capita in sub-Saharan Africa.

To solve the problem, mayors and premiers need to come to the party


If we go back to President Ramaphosa’s 25 July 2022 address on actions to address the electricity crisis, a number of things come to mind.

Firstly, the president said that South Africa needs buffer generation capacity of about 6,000MW.

Secondly, he mentioned what everybody knows, that Eskom cannot carry that burden due to its R400-billion debt.

Thirdly, he said, “we must join in a massive rollout of rooftop solar and contribute to the solution... Business should seize the opportunities that have been created and invest in generation projects”.

To the last point, I have argued consistently that the national government’s plan to install just under 18,000MW of renewable capacity by 2030 should involve households. The government can launch a project to give at least 15,000 households between R50,000 and R100,000 worth of subsidies per year over a number of years if qualifying households can get bank finance to match 50% for installation of household units.

That is less than Eskom spends firing up its open cycle gas turbines every year. Think about it.

In the not-too-distant future, power cuts will be a problem for poor South Africans only. The upper-middle class has moved past the “baseload or renewables” debate and people are installing rooftop solar PV systems in record numbers.

The uptake in renewables is not only due to exasperation with Eskom. Many people see that the Renewables Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme has been a success and most of the over 3,000MW installed since 2018 are through renewables (albeit not as fast as we all would have liked, but still very much a success).

There is also a growing interest to shift from anthropocentric to more ecocentric ways of living, you know, making more efforts to bequeath a healthier planet to future generations.    

A final point I want to make is that President Ramaphosa did not mention mayors and premiers in his July speech. He should have, especially in the current conjuncture.

In South Africa, the provinces get 42% of all non-interest expenditure while local government gets 9.6%. Unfortunately, we often forget about this because everybody is focused on finding out what Ramaphosa and Gwede Mantashe are doing.

Even when the Auditor General says that 157 out of 257 municipalities cannot properly account for how they spent their money, we only talk about Ramaphosa. All the pundits are concentrating all their analysis on the actions of the President.

Premiers and mayors have a lot of power and resources.

Where are the provincial and city plans to keep the lights on in key sites such as hospitals, police stations, major traffic intersections and so on? Where is their plan to replace traffic lights at intersections that are not so busy with traffic circles? What are they waiting for?

The idea that renewables are not being installed at major intersections due to vandalism and theft is problematic. Surely, municipalities can negotiate contracts with property owners adjacent to these intersections to help safeguard the property?

It is sad that medical doctors are going on national TV because rolling blackouts are hitting hospitals too — but they are all looking to the national government and Eskom for solutions. Why haven’t the mayors and premiers put plans in place to stop that from happening since Schedule 2 of the Electricity Regulation Act was amended?

Within that time, some private sector entities have installed over 300MW of generation capacity. Municipalities need only a fraction of that to keep the lights on in hospitals, intersections and so on.

The Northern Cape has established itself as the renewables capital of the country. Premier Zamani Saul has an opportunity to create skills for energy projects as well as even set up generation capacity that the province can sell on to other provinces.

To power past rolling blackouts, everybody has to play a role and — to use the corny expression — think outside the box. DM

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