Rolling manoeuvres — how the Boks became rugby’s least-predictable team

Consider how far Rassie Erasmus’s Springboks have progressed over the past few years. Indeed, it wasn’t too long ago that they were branded the most one-­dimensional side in the game.

“It’s easy to say what they’re going to do; it’s a little harder to stop,” All Black coach Steve Hansen observed in the lead-up to the 2019 World Cup Pool B opener in Yokohama, Japan.

Hansen may have meant that as a compliment as well as a criticism of South Africa’s predictable approach. The All Blacks won that fixture 23-13. No other team, however, had an answer to the Boks’ powerful scrum and kick-chase tactics, and Siya Kolisi went on to lift the Webb Ellis Cup.

The triumph of 2019 was viewed by many as a repeat of the victories in 1995 and 2007, as all three teams employed South Africa’s “traditional style of play” to win the cup.

More recently, the Boks have struck out in a new direction. Thanks to Erasmus’s policy of rotation and the move towards an all-court game, the results are coming thick and fast, and the narrative is changing.

“We’re the so-called experts, but even we don’t know what Rassie is going to do each week,” former Bok captain John Smit said in the wake of the 48-7 win over Argentina in Mbombela last weekend, a result that clinched the Rugby Championship title.

Thanks to Erasmus, the Boks have become the least-predictable and ultimately the most dangerous team in Test rugby.

Regular rotation keeps them guessing

The docuseries Chasing the Sun 2 is packed with behind-the-scenes footage that provides a unique insight into the Springbok team’s approach and philosophy.

One particular scene focuses on a selection meeting during the 2023 World Cup playoffs, and reveals yet another reason that Erasmus has gone to such lengths to rotate and develop the side.

Erasmus asks his lieutenants to put themselves in the shoes of the opposition coaches. How can they predict who the Boks will pick at flyhalf or in the front row, or which of the four scrumhalves in the 33-man squad will make the matchday team?

Up to that stage, the Boks had varied their bench dynamic, so the opposition couldn’t be sure whether the South Africans would include five, six or even seven forwards among their reserves.

Ahead of every match against South Africa, opposition coaches were forced to analyse every member and combination within that Bok squad in order to cover their bases.

The decision to announce the team publicly on a Tuesday – about 48 hours before the official deadline – provided a clearer picture of the South African line-up, but also forced the opposition to consider the possibility of a tactical bluff.

In 2024, Erasmus has taken rotation – and the resultant mind games – to the next level.

Read more: The Springboks have won South Africa over not only by their successes but through their authenticity

Although he has prioritised a rebuild ahead of the 2027 World Cup – given that many of the heroes of 2019 and 2023 are ageing – he has also taken availability, travel and team balance into consideration.

The numbers make for fantastic reading. Erasmus has used 49 players over the course of this season, and 35 during the Rugby Championship.

Backing younger players and untried combinations in big matches hasn’t cost the team results – since the Boks have won eight out of 10 Tests.

Bok coach Rassie Erasmus has overseen an evolution of the team’s playing style and personnel in 2024. (Photo: Grant Pitcher / Gallo Images)

This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R35.