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Rwanda, Trump, the ANC — Ramaphosa’s sizzling Sona hotplate

Rwanda, Trump, the ANC — Ramaphosa’s sizzling Sona hotplate
Stephen Grootes
By Stephen Grootes
3 Feb 2025
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When President Cyril Ramaphosa delivers his State of the Nation Address on Thursday he will have to confront a range of problems greater than almost any other president before him. It is not just the usual domestic problems involving load shedding, service delivery and the normal in-fighting in the ANC. It is also that he has to deal with our soldiers being killed by Rwandan-sponsored forces – and with US President Donald Trump.

It is common for presidents about to deliver their annual State of the Nation Address (Sona) to face a long list of problems. The recent history of the ANC is that it is divided and going through a process of losing support. What makes this Sona different may be the sheer range of problems Ramaphosa now faces.

First, domestically, some of the usual problems are still present, and perhaps even more pressing.

Despite the rude reminder over the weekend that intense load shedding is still possible, water issues are growing in urgency.

And while load shedding could finally be fixed (17 years after it was first caused by the ANC, water problems will be much harder to remedy.

Read more: Twelve years of load shedding – written, starring & directed by the ANC

This is because load shedding does not involve the mess that is local government in most provinces. 

Water does, and as a result, Ramaphosa may now be in a position in which he has to start a process to remove certain powers from local government. Already, there have been some suggestions this would involve ring-fencing revenue from water provision for water and sanitation systems. And thus, councils would have reduced discretion on how to manage their own revenue.

Also, problems with water are far more serious than problems with electricity for the simple reason that while people may die without electricity, they will definitely die without water.

Paul Kagame and Rwanda


Then there is the problem with Rwanda.

As previously stated, the democratic nature of our society and the fact he won’t routinely use violence weakens Ramaphosa’s hand in dealing with President Paul Kagame.

Read more: How SA’s democratic society weakens Ramaphosa’s hand against Rwandan dictatorship

It is likely that the demand for our soldiers to be safely extricated from their situation will only grow. This issue may well foreshadow his speech.

If he does not provide some kind of plan or reassurance, he will be blamed for allowing more of our soldiers to die.

However it is in the nature of such a situation that any negotiations will not be public, and in this conflict, M23 and thus Kagame have the upper hand.

It would seem almost impossible for Ramaphosa to ensure the safe return of our soldiers without having to suffer some kind of humiliation.

Donald Trump 


Ramaphosa also has to manage Donald Trump. While it is difficult to know exactly what the US president will do to South Africa, there is clear evidence that he intends to follow through on his promises.

The spectre of losing $440-million in aid for the Pepfar programme will hit our finances hard.

When someone has been giving you money consistently for many years, it doesn’t matter whether it is the US Federal Government or your dad – it is very difficult to either demand to keep receiving that money, or to live without it.

At the same time, Ramaphosa will feel political pressure to stand up to someone who espouses everything Ramaphosa and the ANC (and most of South Africa) stand against.

This means he both has to appear strong and to provide leadership against Trump, while also getting this funding back.

Even for Ramaphosa, this might be a very difficult line to tread.

Domestic politics


Then there are the problems posed by our domestic politics.

While he has delivered an Opening of Parliament address before (in the weeks after the election and the formation of that government), this time is different.

In that address, he could focus primarily on the formation of the coalition and provide a list of hopes and dreams. At the time, there was a sense of celebration in some classes of our society because for the first time since 1994, their representatives were included in the national government.

Now, some of the inevitable cracks are showing.

Arguments around the Basic Education Laws Amendment Act and National Health Insurance have exposed how far apart the various groupings in the coalition are.

This means that he both has to show his party, the ANC, that he is still in charge of government, while also not alienating the other parties in the coalition.

Again, this is about showing both assertiveness and inclusion.

Meanwhile, the ANC itself is clearly divided.

Two weeks ago ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula promised that the national leadership of the ANC would announce how the provincial leaderships of Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal would be “reconfigured” 

Read more: ANC in KZN and Gauteng told to suspend activities ahead of ‘reconfiguration’

He said that that announcement would be made by Monday last week. The two provinces are still waiting, a possible indication of how difficult this issue is.

Read more: The smouldering contestations around the ANC’s provinces as 2026 elections loom

In the meantime, there may well be another, more philosophical problem facing Ramaphosa.

Twice he has promised that life in South Africa will improve.

The first was immediately after taking over from President Jacob Zuma. The second was just after forming the coalition government.

Unless something significant changes, he may not be believed again because the quality of life for most people in South Africa has declined dramatically. One of the main reasons for this is that the real incomes of most people have declined for such a long time.

Finally, we may be at an inflection point. For the first time in many years, there are realistic expectations that our economy could grow sustainably.

Read more: The year ahead: Identifying critical issues amid the political and economic noise of 2025

This might result in income-per-capita, the amount of money each person receives, rising.

Ramaphosa might well want to stress this during his address and point out the reasons that this could happen. But he may also have a duty to spell out what would put this at risk, and what stands in the way of financial progress.

Unfortunately, it is more likely that almost anything he says will be overshadowed by what is happening to our soldiers in Goma and what Trump is saying in the US. DM

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