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SA Citrus Growers Association slashes 2024 export estimate by 9% as weather withers orange crop

SA Citrus Growers Association slashes 2024 export estimate by 9% as weather withers orange crop
Ed Stoddard
By Ed Stoddard
25 Jul 2024
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The Durban-based Citrus Growers Association has cut its estimate for 2024 exports by 9% to 165.3 million cartons after freezing weather, floods and high winds damaged the orange crop. This will still be a record year, but short of the bumper 181.7 million cartons previously estimated.

As food inflation cools in South Africa, consumers may find they have to fork out more for oranges. 

The Durban-based Citrus Growers Association now estimates that 165.3 million 15kg cartons will be packed for export in 2024, 9% lower than its original forecast of 181.7 million cartons, after a spate of bad weather hit orange producers in Limpopo and the Western and Eastern Cape provinces. 

South Africa is the world’s second biggest citrus exporter and this will still be a record year, just topping the 165.1 million cartons exported last year. But it is a blow to an industry that has been one of the few green shoots in South Africa’s slow-growth economy. 

Reduction in predicted volumes


“Inclement weather... has meant further reduction in predicted orange volumes for 2024. The freezing weather in Senwes (Marble Hall and Groblersdal in Limpopo) has meant that the navel estimate in that region has been reduced by 600,000 cartons and the Valencia volumes by one million,” said Citrus Growers Association CEO Justin Chadwick in his most recent newsletter. 

“The Western Cape (Citrusdal) is still assessing the impact of recent flooding, while the Eastern Cape has been impacted by high winds,” Chadwick said. 

The forecast was cut to 167 million cartons last week, and was pared down further this week after a meeting of the Orange Focus Group, Chadwick told Daily Maverick. 

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“It is now clear that there will not be an oversupply of oranges this season. We are looking at a balanced market,” Jan-Louis Pretorius, the Vice-Chairperson of the association and a citrus grower in Limpopo, said in a statement on 24 July.

 “These adjusted figures tell the story of a unique season. Firstly, drier and warmer conditions caused fruit sizes to be somewhat smaller. Secondly, a very good local juicing price enticed growers to move more oranges to processing. Thirdly, the bad weather of the past two-and-a-half weeks caused challenges. The last time the industry was looking at similar orange figures was during the 2017 season.” 

The bottom line is that South African citrus growers should still have a bumper year, but anticipated profits will be peeled off orange producers. And the vitamin C boost to the economy will not be as large as initially forecast. DM

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