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The changing global order — why SA needs to radically boost defence spending

The changing global order — why SA needs to radically boost defence spending
Stephen Grootes
By Stephen Grootes
3 Mar 2025
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Recent events in Europe, Ukraine and the US show that the world is about to become more dangerous, particularly for nations such as ours. This means that while political parties will be fighting over the Budget, our leaders may now have a duty to seriously increase defence spending.

One of the great advantages of South Africa’s geopolitical position over the past 30 years has been the rational presumption that it faced no threats to its territory. 

Because apartheid was over, as a result of the end of the Cold War, and because all our neighbours were governed by parties with a similar history and ideology, there appeared to be no real risk.

This was one of the reasons many people opposed the Arms Deal in the 1990s – there appeared to be no need to buy all of the equipment.

Unfortunately, in the throes of a disputed Budget, this must now change along with our spending priorities.

It is now clear that the US will no longer play a role in managing and guiding multilateral institutions that help countries defend one another.

Europe on its own


The actions of US President Donald Trump in appearing to reward Russia and punish Ukraine reveal that every country will now have to stand on its own. This is why Friedrich Merz, the presumed new Chancellor of Germany, used his first speech to say his country must work towards its own nuclear deterrent. 

Read more: Shifting alliances: The implications of incoming German Chancellor Merz’s nuclear deterrent proposal on European security

Considering that the last time a German leader would have ever spoken aloud about nuclear weapons was in the 1940s, this is a sign of how much has changed.

In the UK, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has cut his foreign aid budget to spend more money on defence. This has also led to political consequences.

In Europe, this is all because of Russia.

In the days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it was widely predicted that if Moscow was perceived as winning this war, European countries would have to rearm.

Poland’s defence budget has already doubled to well over 4% of GDP since Russia’s invasion. The reason for this is obvious: geographically, it is next to Ukraine.

Unfortunately, as multilateral organisations break down, the ramifications will not be felt just in Europe. 

In the Middle East, as Israel has been able to virtually annex and control Gaza, some of its neighbours may feel that they could be next. They too may feel they need to increase the amount of money they spend on weapons and war.

African dangers increase


Around the Sahel, insurgencies in several countries have led to suffering, conflict and coups. This destabilising effect can be felt in many ways.

First, it leads to more people going to more places looking for safety.

As the US and other countries (such as France) no longer provide soldiers and some kind of safety cordon, the impact will spread further south.

Even southern Africa is becoming more dangerous. With no umbrella of international multilateral groups to work with, it will become more dangerous still.

In Mozambique, porous borders have allowed an insurgency in the north of the country around Cabo Delgado. So far, this has been contained only by Rwandan forces, rather than by forces under SADC command.

Read more: Are Rwandan troops becoming the main security provider in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado?

The outcome of last year’s elections in Mozambique was not accepted by some opposition leaders and the violence that flared up there could easily return.

In Zimbabwe, an illegitimate government that does not believe in elections is governing through the military. It is led by President Emmerson Mngagwa, who first came to power through a coup.

It is entirely possible that some kind of dispute between political elites or military leaders creates a conflict or a power vacuum.

That would increase the threat to our people from across the border, particularly if more Zimbabweans came here, quite understandably seeking sanctuary. 

At the same time, Rwanda has now shown that our military can no longer project force in a large enough capacity.

The humiliation suffered by our soldiers in Goma is an indication that the SANDF can no longer be used as an intervention force. As many have written, the days of the SANDF being a regional power are over.

Read more: SA’s mandate in the DRC and what is going wrong

To be clear, South Africa does not face the threat of invasion by another nation state. Rather, it faces the consequences of the failure of governance and the rise of non-state actors (such as Isis) that wish to cause us harm.

Urgent reform


All this suggests that it would be rational to begin to increase our defence budget immediately. The defence department was allocated R52.4-billion in 2024/25. In the recently postponed Budget, that was to increase to only R53.7-billion.

It is not just that we need more soldiers, more equipment and more firepower. It is also that the entire culture of the SANDF needs to be changed.

It is clear that the priorities of many SANDF leaders are to have a good golf day, or to ensure that guests at a dinner receive a fancy knife. This has to change completely.

Read more: Air force and army chiefs blasted for playing golf while SA soldiers die in DRC

It may be necessary to change almost the entire leadership of the force to get the required results.

At the same time, this means South Africa will now have to deal with a trade-off which has been largely ignored for many years.

While the military and independent experts have argued for years that the SANDF needs a bigger budget, this was ignored because of the political trade-off.

In short, if the choice was between social spending or the SANDF, most people would vote in favour of schools and hospitals.

This was because there was no perceived threat.

Now this has to change, and even though the need for social spending is growing, more money must still be spent on the SANDF.

To add to the problem, there is urgency.

Even if more money were allocated to the SANDF in this Budget, it lacks the capacity to properly spend it – and the entire ecosystem around the SANDF, including Armscor and Denel, have lost capacity too.

This means that the increase in spending has to be across the entire value chain almost immediately, to ensure the SANDF is more effective in five years (or more).

This might lead to difficult debates in the national coalition.

No one wants to give up spending on services to citizens (and to voters).

But the threat level might well now grow dramatically over the next few years. Unfortunately, it seems likely that in a more transactional world there will be very few people on whom we can rely.

If might in the world becomes right, those who use violence will continue to use it, leaving more people vulnerable in many areas, including in our own country.

This means the SANDF has to be capable of relying on its own resources, whether it be in attack helicopters (it was entirely due to our lack of these that our soldiers died in Goma), planes or soldiers.

None of this will be easy or cheap – but it’s a sign of how the presumptions of the past 30 years may have to change radically. DM

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