SA’s white maize production expected to be 22% higher, but yellow maize output expected to fall

The outlook for South Africa’s commercial maize production this season is predicted to be 8% higher than last year’s drought-scorched crop, but the picture is mixed with output for the staple white variety seen as surging while less yellow corn is forecast to be reaped.

Unveiling its initial production forecast for the 2024/25 maize growing season, the government’s Crop Estimates Committee pegged the harvest at just above 13.91 million tonnes compared with 12.85 million tonnes last year. 

For white maize – the caloric staple of many lower-income households – production is forecast at 22% higher at almost 7.4 million tonnes. 

But the yellow maize crop, used primarily for animal feed, is estimated to be about 4% lower at around 6.5 million tonnes. Farmers planted significantly fewer hectares for yellow maize this season than last and almost 3% more for white maize, attracted by the higher prices of the latter. 

There was some initial confusion as the Crop Estimates Committee had the wrong percentage changes in its published report, which it subsequently rectified. 

The forecast for total production of all critical summer crops, including soybeans and sunflower seeds, is almost 11% higher compared with last year. The bottom line is that the summer rain this year has been good for grain. 

Overall, the report bodes cautiously well for South African farmers, consumers and the wider economy after last summer’s searing El Niño event slashed domestic maize output by 23% from the previous season’s stout harvest. 

The legacy of that event remains, with white maize futures prices still elevated at R5,500 a tonne, but more than 18% lower from mid-January. 

“The prospects of a better maize season have already added downward pressure on prices,” said Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA. 

Bringing white maize prices down further will bring relief to poorer households. But the estimate for yellow maize could stoke feed prices and ultimately prices for poultry and meat. 

Food inflation, which was partly driven by last season’s poor maize crop, has thankfully been easing in South Africa, slowing further to 1.5% on an annual basis in January from 1.7% in December.

Read more: Annual CPI picks up to 3.2% in January while food price inflation maintains downward trend 

A La Niña pattern – El Niño’s polar opposite, which typically brings good rains to southern Africa – is currently in play. But it formed only in December, is weak and may fade by March.

Read more: La Niña has finally formed, but will be over soon, says US National Weather Service

This is just the initial estimate and is always subject to change, and a lot will hinge on the weather for the remainder of the summer and early autumn.

“The weather conditions in the coming months will matter more in determining how the crop conditions develop ... The season is late by roughly a month because of the late start of rains in some regions,” said Sihlobo. DM