SA’s service delivery protests likely to decline as electricity grid stabilises - Municipal IQ data

SOWETO, SOUTH AFRICA - MAY 31: Residents blockaded Mooki street next to Orlando Stadium during a protest over lack of electricity in Orlando East on May 31, 2023 in Soweto, South Africa. It is believed that the area has not had power for the past three weeks. (Photo by Gallo Images/Fani Mahuntsi)

By Ed Stoddard

4 Aug 2024

Though election-linked unrest spiked in May, especially in the Eastern Cape, the suspension of rolling blackouts has meant a decline in service delivery demonstrations, according to new data.

In April 2023, 100% of service delivery protests in South Africa were triggered by rolling blackouts and water shortages – every single one.

But in May 2024, even as protests escalated in the run-up to the elections, power and water woes accounted for only 24% of the total.

This is according to the latest analysis from Municipal IQ (a research company that monitors service delivery protests), which shared its data with Daily Maverick.

“While water and electricity continue to be the dominant reasons for protests generally over the past two years, in May these issues accounted for only 24% of protests. This reflects the fact that load shedding, which is the key cause of both electricity- and water-related protests, dropped dramatically in May,” Municipal IQ said.

“If we continue to see low levels of load shedding... it is also likely that protests may drop to the lower levels seen in April when there was also reduced load shedding,” it said.

Using the elections to be heard

May was a month of significant unrest, which Municipal IQ said was directly related to the elections.

“May 2024 saw a huge spike in service delivery protests as protesters, about half of them in the Eastern Cape, used the national and provincial election voting period between 26 and 29 May to highlight their service delivery grievances. Almost half of protests were election-related, meaning protesters tried to stop people from voting, or threatened Electoral Commission (IEC) officials, or destroyed IEC materials,” the report said.

“When asked why they were carrying out such action, protesters replied that they would not allow people to vote or the IEC to do their work while protesters did not have access to municipal services. They sometimes specified what these services were, such as electricity or water, but often didn’t.”

Read more: Eskom news

But in June, politics was no longer a flashpoint, and social unrest dwindled.

Trends in service delivery protests

It’s also interesting to see the trends over the past two decades.

According to Municipal IQ’s database, service delivery protests peaked in 2018, with 237 recorded that year.

Because of the election-linked spike in May, there had been 122 major protests in the first six months of 2024. If that trend continued, 2024 would be a record year.

service delivery protests Residents blockaded Mooki Street next to Orlando Stadium in Soweto during a protest over a lack of electricity on 31 May 2023. (Photo: Gallo Images / Fani Mahuntsi)

But that seems unlikely if Eskom is able to keep the lights on, and, historically, protests have declined in the second half of the year.

“It’s... likely that if we continue to see a low number of load shedding outages, this will keep the number of protests down. However, the converse will also likely be true – if load shedding returns, protests are likely to increase again.”

A well-lit future

It must be said that the outlook on this front is bright.

August looks likely to be warmer than usual, with spring coming early over much of South Africa, which will curb household power demand.

Eskom, by a range of metrics, is clearly performing much better, an indication that the dramatic decline in rolling blackouts was not a cynical election ploy. And the scramble by businesses and households to install solar panels during the past few years has lightened Eskom’s load.

The flip side is that water shortages and other service delivery failures remain a potential trigger for protest activity. And procurement mafias and dodgy business forums can still gin up protests as they seek their slice of lucrative contracts in the mining, construction and other sectors.

South Africa’s body politic remains disfigured by glaring disparities in wealth, with the unemployment rate, by its widest definition, at more than 40%. There is plenty of combustible material to inflame passions.

But some green shoots are emerging. There are tentative hopes that the government of national unity can arrest the rot of state failure, the economic outlook is slowly improving and inflation has been slowing.

The term “service delivery protest”, like “load shedding”, is a South Africanism not found elsewhere in public discourse.

The decline and hopefully disappearance of load shedding will not necessarily mean the end of service delivery protests. But the data compiled by Municipal IQ suggests that, because such unrest has been strongly linked to the power crisis, it may be set for a significant decline. DM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGVHBbOqKlU

This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R35.

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