SA Weather Service extends dryer and warmer-than-usual forecast to November

While El Niño has faded, most of South Africa is still expected to remain relatively dry and warm into spring and early summer. 

“The South African Weather Service (Saws) multimodel rainfall forecast indicates mostly below-normal rainfall over most of the country during Jul-Aug-Sep (JAS), Aug-Sep-Oct (ASO) and Sep-Oct-Nov (SON),” the weather service said in its latest Seasonal Climate Watch, which looks five months ahead.

“Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above-normal countrywide for the forecast period.” 

If this forecast is realised, it could bode ill for the planting season for key summer crops such as maize. The staple white maize crop is seen 25% lower this year because of a searing drought linked to the El Niño weather pattern which could bring domestic food inflation, which has been slowing, back on the boil. 

While El Niño, caused by a warming of surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, often triggers drought in southern Africa, its polar opposite, La Niña – which typically brings good rains to this region – may soon replace it. 

Currently the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (Enso), which describes these patterns, is in neutral state between the two extremes. 

But Saws cautioned that nothing is set on stone. 

“... current predictions are mixed in whether it will weaken towards a La Niña state during our next summer season,” it said.

That is perhaps an exaggeration as a number of global weather forecasters see La Niña on the imminent horizon. But Saws is typically restrained on this front. 

The weather service also urged caution about its overall forecast.

“We are now in the middle of the winter season, and as such weather systems occurring during this season are notoriously difficult to predict at a seasonal timescale,” it said. 

So, South Africa’s spring may not be as dry and warm as current models suggest. 

With much of the country shivering from a cold front this weekend, which was expected to hit Gauteng by Monday, warmer-than-usual weather may have an appeal at the moment. But rains are needed this spring in the grain belt without blistering temperatures. 

Hopefully, La Niña will emerge, and sooner rather than later. DM