SA’s 2024 citrus export estimates slashed to below 2023 record — local orange prices surge

South African consumers are suddenly forking out a lot more for oranges and naartjies, which have more than doubled in price over the past four weeks in the wake of a spate of bad weather which hit the domestic crop. 

The latest Citrus Growers Association (CGA) estimate for packed and shipped 15kg cartons is 1.8% lower than its revised forecast in late July – which would still have been a new record – and 10.6% lower than its original prediction of 181.7 million cartons. 

South Africa is the world’s No 2 citrus exporter and the sector has been a bright spot in a parched economic landscape, with a record 165.1 million cartons shipped last year.

Heavily reliant on irrigation, citrus growers largely dodged the El Niño bullet this year which scorched the maize and other summer grain crops. 

Read more: SA citrus farmers have reason to be upbeat after weathering El Niño

But the weather unexpectedly took a turn for the worse in several citrus-growing regions during a crucial part of the season. 

Frost inflicted damage in parts of Limpopo and Citrusdal was drenched by floods as record rains washed over the Western Cape. And Eastern Cape growers saw much of their crop literally blown away by high winds. 

“... (The) navel estimate was increased by half a million cartons, while Valencia oranges was reduced by 1.6 million cartons. The Mandarin Focus Group made a downward adjustment of 700,000 cartons,” Justin Chadwick, the CGA’s CEO, said in his regular newsletter. 

Among other factors, this means that orange prices are suddenly running against the grain of slowing food inflation.

“Our analysis of trends on the markets is that prices for oranges on the local markets have increased by 118% month on month. This is for the first two weeks of August relative to the same period last month,” Paul Makube, Senior Agricultural Economist at FNB, told Daily Maverick. 

Makube said that on a year-on-year basis, orange prices were 56% higher. 

Among the factors at play here is a switch to the juice market among producers because of higher prices on that front. This is also a reflection of global juice prices which recently hit record highs because of weather-related crop failures in Brazil and Florida.

It’s all a perfect storm for South African consumers who are fond of their oranges. 

Returning to the export situation, if the current forecast pans out, it will still be a bumper if not a record year for South African citrus growers. 

The citrus sector is both capital and labour intensive and injects badly needed export revenues into South Africa’s economy. This is one of the economy’s green shoots with plenty of scope to grow. DM