SA’s agribusiness confidence shrivels in third quarter, but some green shoots

The fall in the Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) followed a more modest two-point decline in Q2 and is a worrying sign as agriculture has been one of the few bright spots in an economy which is now being waylaid once again by Stage 6 power cuts. 

Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine may have triggered a surge in the prices of key agricultural commodities, but it has also fanned the flames of farm input cost inflation. The harvest that is being reaped remains bitter. 

On top of soaring costs, Agbiz noted that sentiment was weighed by “persistent animal disease challenges”, rising interest rates – commercial farmers borrow a lot – geopolitical risks and “ongoing weaknesses in municipal service delivery and network industries”. If you think urban roads are in rough shape, try some of the rural roads which are vital arteries to connect produce to markets. Just don’t try them without a big Hilux. 

The survey was conducted in the first two weeks of September, so it is as fresh, if not fresher, than much of the stuff in your local Checkers. 



The index comprises 10 subindices, and seven declined in Q3, but the numbers are all over the show in a revealing way. 

“The turnover subindex fell by 14 points to 79 in the third quarter of 2022. This current level, however, is well above the long-term average, signalling that many farmers and agribusinesses continue to benefit from strong crop prices,” Agbiz said. 

So, commercial farmers expect prices for their products to remain elevated, which will keep them planting. But confidence simply goes pear-shaped when the wider economy is viewed from the field.