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SA’s GNU Cabinet negotiations are intertwined with Ramaphosa succession battle within the ANC

SA’s GNU Cabinet negotiations are intertwined with Ramaphosa succession battle within the ANC
Velani Ludidi
By Velani Ludidi
27 Jun 2024
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The negotiations surrounding a Government of National Unity are intertwined with strategic manoeuvres leading up to the ANC’s 56th national conference in 2027 as candidates are already lining up to succeed Cyril Ramaphosa.

South Africa is on tenterhooks as it awaits the announcement of the new Cabinet following President Cyril Ramaphosa’s inauguration last week. Usually, the Cabinet lineup would be clear by this time, with ministers preparing to take up their portfolios.

However, the protracted negotiations between the African National Congress (ANC) and the Democratic Alliance (DA) over the composition of the Government of National Unity (GNU) have introduced significant delays and uncertainty. 

The initial agreement between the two major parties has been continually revised, causing friction and setbacks.

The DA’s fluctuating demands for Cabinet positions have contributed to this deadlock. Initially, the DA demanded 12 Cabinet positions, while the ANC offered six. The DA then agreed to the six positions but later sought to add two more portfolios. When the two parties appeared to finally have a deal, the ANC reneged on its offer to include the trade, industry and competition portfolio. 

Leaked correspondence between President Cyril Ramaphosa and DA leader John Steenhuisen reveals the back-and-forth nature of these talks. What’s less visible to the public eye is that these negotiations are not just about immediate power-sharing.

The battle for the ANC


The GNU discussions are also intertwined with manoeuvring leading up to the ANC’s 56th elective conference in 2027. This conference could have an unprecedented outcome, potentially marking the first time a sitting Deputy President does not ascend to the presidency after the current President’s term ends.

Deputy President Paul Mashatile is seen as the traditional heir to the presidential seat, following the ANC’s long-standing practice. However, internal dynamics suggest that National Chairperson Gwede Mantashe and Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula might challenge this tradition. 

Mashatile does not enjoy support in KwaZulu-Natal — the ANC’s biggest province in terms of membership — after he left Zweli Mkhize’s slate and joined Ramaphosa’s in the 2022 elective conference at Nasrec. 

Mbalula has already hinted at the jostling for power within the party. Speaking at the ANC Western Cape provincial conference in June 2023, Mbalula claimed some members were using the Phala Phala controversy to further their leadership ambitions, emphasising that Ramaphosa’s leadership remained intact, despite challenges.

“We’ve got rules in the ANC, and checks and balances. We will decide if the President has to step aside at some point because he’s got to answer from a point of accountability,” Mbalula said. “He will step aside [if the party decides he must]. There’s no problem. The President will step aside, so there’s no crisis. There is no crisis of leadership in the ANC.” 

The role of MK and EFF 


The GNU negotiations have brought the uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party, led by former president Jacob Zuma, and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) back into the picture.

Initially sidelined from the GNU negotiations, the strife within the ANC has led to renewed talks of collaboration with these parties. Mantashe and the ANC Gauteng faction are advocating partnerships with MK and the EFF, viewing them as potential allies against the DA’s demands.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Gauteng ANC talks with DA continue — but party also negotiates with EFF, MK

MK, in particular, is desperate for influence following its failure to govern KwaZulu-Natal despite being the largest party there. The ANC, DA, Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) and National Freedom Party (NFP) have formed a coalition in KwaZulu-Natal, holding power with just a one-seat majority over MK.

MK is reportedly exploring options to gain a foothold in KwaZulu-Natal’s governance, adding another layer of complexity to the GNU negotiations. The party’s willingness to make significant compromises to secure a leadership position in the province underscores its strategic importance.

The ANC’s alliance partners, the South African Communist Party and Cosatu, have voiced concerns about the DA’s demands, which they consider unreasonable.

This sentiment is particularly strong in Gauteng, where Premier Panyaza Lesufi postponed announcing his executive team, citing the need to consult with new GNU partners.  

Mantashe’s strategic moves 


Mantashe has been positioning himself strategically within the GNU discussions, eyeing opportunities to reintroduce MK and the EFF into the talks. 

His approach contrasts with the DA’s demands for control over key departments such as home affairs; basic education; and trade, industry and competition. The DA’s insistence on having deputy ministers in influential portfolios like finance and energy has intensified the negotiations.

These departments are crucial to the ANC’s affiliate unions, and any transfer of control to the DA would probably provoke significant internal dissent. The DA’s desire for a say in the appointment of directors-general in DA-led ministries further complicates the negotiations, adding to the ANC’s internal challenges.

Mantashe vs Mbalula 


Mantashe’s manoeuvring is partly aimed at securing his leadership future within the ANC. However, he faces opposition from Mbalula, who is wary of aligning with MK and the EFF due to potential negative market reactions and the impact on his own leadership ambitions.

Mbalula’s concerns highlight the complex interplay between the ANC’s internal politics and the broader implications of the GNU negotiations.

EFF leader Julius Malema’s recent social media post, in which he disparaged Mbalula by likening him to an apartheid-era figure, underscores the tensions in the GNU talks and the broader ANC leadership struggle. Malema sees Mbalula as a stumbling block to the EFF’s chances of working with the ANC. DM

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