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South Africa

Shape of things to come — instead of quick and bloody revolution, a slow and steady evolution

With voting due to begin on Wednesday morning and the election results expected this weekend, it is time to consider which direction our politics is moving in. While, on current predictions, there are no concrete numbers, certain trends are becoming more evident. And one province in particular, KwaZulu-Natal, points to what our political future looks like.
Shape of things to come — instead of quick and bloody revolution, a slow and steady evolution

While there has been much commentary about the fact we are likely to have a coalition in national government and at least two provinces, one of the questions which emerges now is what our politics will look like in the next national elections, in 2029.

While much can change, KwaZulu-Natal is a useful model to make certain predictions about the next five years of our politics 

Polling ahead of Wednesday’s elections suggested at one point that each of four parties could get about 20% of the vote in the province. The ANC, MK, IFP and DA all have significant constituencies there (more recent polling suggests the DA and IFP have slipped substantially).

Read more in Daily Maverick: Elections 2024: On the road

This makes it difficult to predict what will happen in KZN. It could come down to a few thousand votes, or to whether smaller parties support one grouping or another (this surely explains why Roy Moodley, involved in scandals, including paying Jacob Zuma a salary while he was president, has formed his own party in KZN for this election).

This is surely unprecedented in our politics. In the past, almost everywhere, one party has dominated (usually the ANC, sometimes the DA) amid relatively weak opposition.

There was also much speculation about whether any party or movement would one day be able to remove the ANC from power.

However, the 2029 election could well be the story of several bigger parties contesting for power, with none able to dominate or come anywhere close to 50%.

Professor Steven Friedman has pointed to a future dominated by coalitions, where no one party bosses those groupings.

In other words, instead of what we currently see in Joburg or other councils, there will be no contest between an “ANC-led coalition” or a “DA-led coalition”. Rather there would be groupings of parties that have about 20% of the vote in a particular legislature, along with much smaller parties.

Mixed consequences


This will be a huge change. It will mean that no one party dominates or ensures that its policy becomes law.

This will have mixed consequences.

It may well prevent the kind of grand State Capture that occurred during the Zuma era. Had the ANC not dominated our politics as it did then and without Zuma’s dominance of the ANC at the time (much lamented by the ANC now), the Guptas could never have stolen as much as they did.

Also, no one party will be able to force through destructive policies.

However, as has been seen in coalition governments, this does not mean corruption will stop.

The risk is that politicians from different parties will work together with corrupt intent to share the spoils.

This appears to be the next likely outcome — parties working together not out of any shared ideology, but simply to stay in power.

As a result, it will be difficult to have a shared agenda. If this happens, it is likely that none of the major problems that require government intervention will be solved. There will be no agreement on what is to be done and no interest in resolving the problems in the first place.

Role of smaller parties


Also, smaller parties may well continue to play an outsize role in our politics. There will be more incentive for people to form them, even if just for small strategic advantages.

Arguably, this is what has happened in Joburg and several other metros.

Smaller parties will organise along the lines of ethnic identity and personality politics, with more parties that closely resemble MK — marshalled around a particular ethnic identity and one particular personality.

Unfortunately, despite the fact this type of politics will revolve around parties working together, it will increase the incentive for parties to try to divide voters.

Some will use tactics like the DA’s flag-burning advert to gain attention and to incentivise their constituency to vote.

Others may go further and campaign for certain areas, like KZN and the Western Cape, to secede from South Africa.

While this scenario points to significant problems in our future, there are some problems that it does avoid.

Many have been impatient for change in our politics, but it now appears that change will come much more slowly than previously believed, with less opposition to that change.

To put it another way, several years ago, many in the commentariat discussed whether the ANC would give up power peacefully if it fell below 50%. It is surely significant that virtually no one asks that question now.

This is because the pace of change is so slow there is no shock, which also means there is no violent resistance to the change.  

Instead of a quick and bloody revolution, there is slow and steady evolution.

Of course, our politics still can and will surprise. It is possible that a grand national coalition will take power, if not now, then in 2029, particularly as the ANC may then realise that would be the best way for it to maintain a large amount of control in government.

That said, the current trends suggest our politics is about to get more complex, with more players, no single-party dominance and fewer principles. DM

Comments (7)

Jack Russell May 29, 2024, 04:25 AM

The starting point is to understand that the West has developed a belief amongst black people that everything wrong in their lives is a result of racist whites; hence there is no self analysis or self criticism. The anc now believe they have a rights to everything within the borders of the country; this is not going to change. On the future, the only unknown is how far down the decline graph we’ll go and when will it bottom out? 1. The first check point is some way off, will be when we run out of money. 2. Soon after or at that point, check point two. Best guess is China or Russia step in, put us on financial drip feed, our messy politicking carries on and they look after the anc and its coalitions whilst they suck what they need from the country. 3. The third point, when we rise to the level that we could so easily have reached many years ago, is now a long, long way off, four plus generations? So sad, so unnecessary.

hlavatican May 28, 2024, 05:37 PM

I don't understand why people call others uninformed voters... Every one votes according to their experiences and perceptions. If you grew up with electricity... load shedding is problem... water shedding a nightmare.. potholes a death trap.... BBBEE a disaster... but those who had no electricity at all, no piped water, no road, needed a pass to travel, No business support no access to jobs with a white man ruling... you will think ANC has done very well. Time to rethink strategy DA... politics is a dirty game... play to win... after winning you can talk of meritocracy, liberal.. what what...

Geoff Coles May 28, 2024, 07:21 PM

Are you suggesting being corrupt, showing you don't care, rinse and repeat ( assuming water) got the ANC where they are

Robert K May 28, 2024, 04:06 PM

Much is made of our diversity, our rainbow nation, but when it comes to elections, it becomes our greatest weakness.

Lawrence Sisitka May 28, 2024, 02:59 PM

If only one day we can take out the whole concept of 'power' and replace it with 'representation'. Until then we should not even pretend we enjoy anything like a democracy, the understanding of which seems almost totally absent from our body politic, and indeed almost everyone. Of course, it is a global syndrome, and high time we moved on from the very silly and unhelpful notion of party politics which seems to consume even the most astute commentators. Just think of the different quality of representatives we would get if we removed the notion of power, and the concomitant access to the state's resources. It is possible; and the clowns and thugs who are currently jostling for position - for 'power - would be consigned to the dustbin of history where they belong. Ok, we will need a very big dustbin!

bushboyvos May 28, 2024, 11:26 AM

Your headline is wrong. No evolution here: it's been "a slow and steady DEVOLUTION"

Joe Soap May 28, 2024, 09:01 AM

The current situation reflects the failure of the proportional representation system which has facilitated the spawning of all the small parties, many of whom will sell their support to the highest bidder. Most of them are one-man bands which have not held internal elective conferences, dominated by individuals. A constituency system where perhaps the parties/persons with the 1st and 2nd and/or 3rd highest votes earns a seat in parliament. This would reduce the number of small parties with limited but country wide support, would allow for localised niche parties, would ensure an element of proportionality and would introduce competition within a constituency between different elected officials to help with service delivery.

The Proven May 27, 2024, 08:56 PM

The positive is that each party will champion a specific position to its electorate. That position can become part of the coalition agreement, causing voter-based government behavior, that could positively affect the direction our country goes to (can't be worse than what we have currently!).