Shares cling to hopes for tariff relief, bitcoin jumps

SYDNEY, March 3 (Reuters) - Asian share markets made guarded gains on Monday as investors waited anxiously to see if imminent tariffs would go ahead, while bitcoin surged on news it would be included in a new US strategic reserve of cryptocurrencies.

US President Donald Trump on social media announced five digital assets he expected to include in a new reserve, including bitcoin, ether, XRP, solana  and cardano.

Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency by market value, shot up 10% to $92,905, while ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, pulled back to $2,443 after climbing 13% over the weekend.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan inched up 0.3%, while Japan's Nikkei rose 1.0%. Chinese blue chips added 0.8%, helped by a pick-up in the Caixin/S&P manufacturing PMI to 50.8 in February, from 50.1.

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both flat, having staged a late rally on Friday after a week of heavy losses.

EUROSTOXX 50 futures firmed 0.3%, while FTSE futures and DAX futures rose 0.6%.

Investors seemed encouraged that European leaders agreed to draw up a Ukraine peace plan to take to the United States, following President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's clash with Trump in the Oval Office.

Worries about the health of the US economy had also been fanned by a string of soft data that had seen the closely watched Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker swing to an annualised -1.5%, from +2.3%, sparking talk of a possible recession.

Those fears were fanned on Sunday when US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said tariffs on Canada and Mexico will go into effect on Tuesday, but that Trump would determine whether to stick with the planned 25% level.

An extra 10% levy on Chinese imports is also due to come into effect this week, just as the country's National People's Congress opens its third annual session on Wednesday where stimulus measures and possible reprisals against the US could be announced.

"As with other Trump tariff announcements so far, it's hard to know if this is a bluff or a genuine turn in policy," said JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli.

"However, if it were to be realised it would create a significant new headwind to economic activity, as well as an upside support to consumer prices."

PAYROLLS LOOM

All of this raises the stakes for the January US payrolls report due on Friday, where a weak outcome would fuel market bets the Federal Reserve might have to cut interest rates three times this year.

Fed fund futures now imply 69 basis points of easing by December, compared with 46 basis points a week ago. Yields on 10-year Treasuries extended their rally with a drop to 4.220%, leaving them down 35 basis points in February, the largest monthly decline since late 2023.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak on the economic outlook on Friday, just a few hours after the jobs report, and at least seven other officials will appear this week.

Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank is widely expected to cut its rates by 25 basis points to 2.50% on Thursday following a run of weak data, and a move under 2% is expected by year-end.

In currency markets, the euro edged up 0.5% to $1.0421 on hopes for progress in a Russian-Ukrainian peace deal, having been as low as $1.0360 on Friday.

The dollar eased back to 1.4445 Canadian dollars after rising 1.7% last week, and dipped to 20.4586 Mexican pesos.

It eased a touch on the Japanese yen to 150.32 yen, while the dollar index was down slightly at 107.180.

Gold prices firmed 0.5% to $2,873 an ounce, having dropped around 3% last week. GOL/

Oil bounced a little, having slid last week amid speculation the U.S. could ease sanctions on Russian output, while the risk of a global trade war could hit demand for energy.

Brent futures rose 76 cents to $73.57 a barrel, while US crude futures added 74 cents to $70.50 per barrel.

(Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Jamie Freed and Jacqueline Wong)