Small modular reactors — the future of SA’s energy or a risky gamble?

With 63 reactors representing more than 70 gigawatts (GW) of new nuclear capacity under construction globally, nuclear energy will be at a record high in 2025, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

In the section about “recent policy decisions and nuclear energy developments”, the report notes that South Africa has been engaged in the development of two small modular reactor (SMR) designs, namely the HTMR-100 and A-HTR-100.

Daily Maverick previously reported that Minister of Energy and Electricity Kgosientsho Ramokgopa last year stressed that nuclear energy would be a crucial part of South Africa’s energy mix and that activity was under way to re-energise the country’s nuclear capacities.

Read in Daily Maverick: Ramokgopa makes the case for small modular reactors and the resuscitation of SA’s nuclear industry

He specifically referred to small modular reactors, not conventional large reactors like the Koeberg Nuclear Power Station.

Despite concerns about environmental impacts, high initial costs, regulatory hurdles and public scepticism that often accompanies nuclear energy, “what we have accepted is that SMRs are the future”, said Ramokgopa at a media briefing on 20 November 2024.

At that briefing, Ramokgopa also said: “We know that the Americans are going full steam in relation to SMR technology. We’re beginning to see that a lot of tech companies are investing in companies that are exploring this SMR for purposes of powering their data centres. So that’s the future. So the future is clearly mapped out and the question about the role and place of SMR has been answered.

“We think that there is vast opportunity.”

Reliable, stable and sustainable

Bertha Dlamini, the founding president of African Women in Energy and Power, previously told Daily Maverick that SMRs can address some of the concerns about the intermittent nature of renewable energy generation.

“SMRs can effectively complement renewable energy sources, ensuring a more reliable, stable and sustainable power supply for South Africa’s evolving energy landscape,” she said.

One of the technologies under development in South Africa, according to the IEA’s new report, is the HTMR-100 which, in its marketing material, Stratek Global explains is “a high-temperature modular pebble bed nuclear Reactor (HTMR) … a helium gas-cooled reactor, graphite moderated. This design produces high-quality steam which is then coupled to a steam turbine system to produce a continuous base load of 35MW of electrical power.

“The concept of a ‘modular’ reactor means that the reactor is primarily fabricated indoors in a production plant. The individual assemblies are then transported to the construction site where these individual modules are rapidly assembled.”

Kelvin Kemm, former chairperson of the South African Nuclear Energy Corporation and chairperson and CEO of Stratek Global, told World Nuclear News in 2023 that a “first-of-its-kind … 35MW high-temperature modular reactor (HTMR-100) could be constructed within five years”.

However, concerns about and opposition to new nuclear energy capacity in South Africa stalk government plans.

Read in Daily Maverick: Minister Ramokgopa, citing legal challenges, hits brakes on nuclear plans – for now

Peter Becker is a former director of the National Nuclear Regulator, an anti-nuclear activist and the spokesperson for the Koeberg Alert Alliance, an organisation opposing nuclear energy. He shared his thoughts with Daily Maverick.

“It’s interesting to watch the industry shift over the years. I followed it closely for 15 years or so, and they used to claim that we’re going to switch to fully nuclear and as it became obvious that’s not going to happen, they’re watering down their claims and saying, ‘We want to be part of the energy mix.’

Becker continued that “We [South Africa] carry on about the mix; because we’ve got uranium, we’ve got to put it into the mix, but if I open my pantry and I’ve got arsenic and I’m making dinner, I don’t have to put it into the mix.”

“The point is that we select what is the least damaging approach to go forward and I would certainly say nuclear power is dispensable in achieving net zero.”

Increased level of risk

Asked about SMRs and safety concerns, he explained that because of their relatively small size, there would be a greater dispersion and number of reactors across South Africa. This, he argued, could increase the level of risk.

“If one of those things fails, then of course you’ve got a problem. You’ve got an escape of radioactive material, you might have to evacuate the area and so on.”

Becker acknowledged however that, to a degree, SMRs address some safety concerns.

“They’re meant to be passive. In other words, if something fails, they don’t cause a loss of coolant and a meltdown, but that’s yet to be seen.”

His concerns were echoed by Liziwe McDaid, strategic lead at environmental organisation The Green Connection. McDaid played a pivotal role in halting the nuclear deal between South Africa and Russia in 2017, for which she was awarded the 2018 Goldman Environmental Prize for Africa.

“Where is the commercially viable SMR? There is a lot of hype, but the idea that it would be feasible to safely regulate many mini-nuclear reactors scattered over the country seems ludicrous. How would we transport radioactive fuel and waste without increasing the risk of an accident enormously? Our roads are not the safest and adherence to traffic rules appears in general to be regarded as optional.”

Asked how she views the current policy landscape for nuclear energy in South Africa, McDaid said, “Nuclear costs were vastly underestimated in the past and nuclear has not gotten cheaper. Aspects of the approval process for both the PBMR [pebble bed modular reactor] and the larger nuclear deal were found to be unlawful in the past. The importance of ensuring that there is credible evidence of the energy planning process cannot be underestimated. Public participation and a sound transparent process should show us which energy sources are best for South Africa.

“At this point, I don’t see any facts to support nuclear energy in our future. The current IRP [Integrated Resource Planning] process left much to be desired in 2024 and needs vast improvement in transparency and public engagement in 2025. Parliament failed in its oversight role in the previous nuclear deal — will this Parliament stand up for the people of South Africa who elected them?” DM