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Snowstorm chaos – what went wrong?

Snowstorm chaos – what went wrong?
Senior SAWS Forecaster, Puseletso Mofokeng, analysing the coming week’s weather, Monday 23 September 2024. (Photo: SA Weather Service)
Julia Evans
By Julia Evans
23 Sep 2024
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Despite the SA Weather Service’s advance warnings of heavy snowfall in parts of the country, nearly two thousand vehicles were stuck on national roads.

Last Wednesday, 18 September, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) warned that a spring cut-off low would bring very cold, wet and windy conditions, and snowfall of 15 to 30cm over the weekend.

As predicted, snow blanketed high-lying areas of KwaZulu-Natal, the Eastern Cape, and parts of the Free State. The conditions made roads treacherous, leaving hundreds of vehicles stranded on national routes. 

Travellers were stuck in their cars overnight as traffic ground to a standstill. At least one person died.




Thulasizwe Buthelezi reported on Sunday that at one point over the weekend, 1,823 vehicles were stuck on the N3 between Van Reenen’s Pass and Montrose.

Gavin Kelly, CEO of the Road Freight Association, told Daily Maverick that after 54 hours, they still had around 700 trucks in various areas that were either blocked, required assistance or had drivers missing.

So, what happened?


“It is of paramount importance for the public to normalise checking the weather forecast as they go about planning any outdoor activities, including travel and mass events,” said the Deputy Minister of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment, Narend Singh, on Sunday evening in a statement that called on the public to heed severe weather warnings and reconsider travel plans.

“Such information is disseminated several times each day on traditional and new media platforms to avoid the very dire situation we sadly find ourselves in.”

SAWS said in their initial statement on Wednesday that a cold front and cut-off low-pressure system would introduce wintery conditions – starting in the Western Cape on Thursday, spreading significantly colder conditions through KwaZulu-Natal, the Free State and Mpumalanga on Friday, and reaching Gauteng, North West and Limpopo by Saturday.

SAWS warned that disruptive snowfall of 15 to 30 cm was likely to result in the closure of mountain passes, loss of livestock and crops, and affect major traffic routes including parts of the N3, N5 and N11. 

“Bitterly cold daytime temperatures of 4 to 8°C can be expected over the high-lying areas of the Eastern Cape, the eastern Free State, and the interior of KwaZulu-Natal, where widespread snowfall is likely,” said Kevin Rae, senior SAWS forecaster, in the initial statement.

There was warning


As early as the evening of Wednesday 18 September, SAWS issued an orange Level 6 warning for disruptive snow in the Eastern Cape (from Thursday until Saturday), which was upped to a Level 8 warning for disruptive snow over the western parts of KZN on Saturday morning, indicating that heavy snow could lead to icy roads and major traffic disruptions, and instructing the public to avoid travelling on the affected roads.



William Baloyi, from the Government Communication and Information System, told Daily Maverick that the GCIS amplified the warnings from the weather service immediately after they were issued, including through its provincial structures.

GCIS also worked with provincial communicators to spread the warnings through municipal channels. At a national level, the Minister in the Presidency highlighted the weather warnings during a post-Cabinet media briefing on 20 September, which was broadcast by TV stations and livestreamed on GCIS platforms.

On Friday morning, the government’s official X account boosted SAWS’ Level 6 warning, noting that KZN’s MEC for Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs, Thulasizwe Buthelezi, had warned residents of severe weather and urged them to take the necessary precautions.

In a statement on Saturday, Transport Minister Barbara Creecy urged motorists to comply with travel advisories and delay non-essential travel due to the severe weather conditions.


Snowfall will go down in the books


While snow in spring is not unusual, the volume of snowfall – 15 to 30cm – is one for the books. 

 

 

snowfall Some vehicles were trapped in deep snow on the road to Witsieshoek Mountain Lodge in the Drakensberg on Friday. (Photo: Groenewald Basson / Severe Weather and Information Centre SA).



kzn snow Travellers on the N3 faced major disruptions due to heavy snowfall, leading to the closure of the road between Estcourt in KwaZulu-Natal and Harrismith in the Free State. (Image: Kwa-Ximba nation / Facebook)



SAWS meteorologist Lehlohonolo Thobela explained to Daily Maverick that while it’s uncommon for SA to receive snow of this magnitude at this time of year, it is not impossible. 

“It rarely happens, but when we have weather systems like the cut-off low, a cold front and a surface high-pressure system ridging in the east, it is normal that we observe such conditions,” he said.

Annette Botha, meteorologist from VOX weather, agreed: “Spring snow is not unusual, but this snow event is historical… it’s going to be written into the history books – not because snow is unusual, but the snowfall amount is unprecedented.”

Senior SAWS forecaster, Puseletso Mofokeng, agreed that this event was not unprecedented, pointing out that in July 1996, the snow depth was around one metre in parts of Lesotho and the Drakensberg region.

Puseletso Mofokeng Senior SAWS forecaster, Puseletso Mofokeng, analysing the coming week’s weather on Monday 23 September 2024. (Photo: SA Weather Service)



“Further, the maximum temperatures were below 0°C zero for that event. The then-Jan Smuts Airport (now OR Tambo International) was closed due to the snow and severe icing on the aircraft,” said Mofokeng. 

“At the time, the magnitude of the disaster was huge, with a lot of reported loss of human life and livestock.”

Thobela added that, according to media and climate records, snow of this magnitude in spring was last seen in Gauteng on 10 September 1981. 

Was there enough warning?


“I think there were definitely enough warnings issued by the SAWS,” said Botha, noting that they issued a warning several days before, even issuing a Level 8 warning for snow.

Despite all of this, many people still took to the roads. 

Daily Maverick asked SAWS if there was a disconnect between communicating disasters to the public, especially ahead of a public holiday and school break weekend.

“The South African Weather Service is loath to speculate,” Oupa Segalwe, senior communications manager for SAWS, told Daily Maverick.

“All we can do is encourage the public to check the weather forecast ahead of any outdoor activity, including travel. Such information can be accessed via the television, radio, the SAWS website (www.weathersa.co.za), its social media platforms and its WeatherSMART app.” 

Deputy Minister Singh noted that the global Early Warning for All Initiative – a United Nations plan to ensure that by 2027, everyone in the world is warned in advance about dangerous weather, water and climate events – “will only bear fruit if the public heeds the warnings of authorities such as the SAWS”.

“As we know with climate change, these types of severe weather events are going to become more frequent and extreme, so we need to be better prepared – and communication is key to stay prepared,” said Botha.

Botha reflected: “Communication is still the place where I think we can improve.”

While we should expect fewer snow-producing weather systems in South Africa, because of anthropogenic climate events, climate change has proven to make extreme weather events like heat waves, drought, flooding and cyclones more frequent and severe.
As such, Botha noted, “so we need to be better prepared - and communication is key to stay prepared.” DM

DM

More weather information can be accessed through the SAWS’s website www.weathersa.co.za, its WeatherSMART APP and social media platforms.

For Apple Smartphones: https://apps.apple.com/za/app/weathersmart/id1045032640

For Android Smartphones: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=za.co.afrigis.saws.droid.activity&gl=ZA

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