South Africa may be on the verge of ‘going to the dogs’ but disaster can still be narrowly averted

Every South African I talk to is asking whether the country is “going to the dogs?” Well, what does it mean to “go to the dogs”?

In ancient China, criminals were expelled from the walls of the city and left to live on the rubbish dumps in the outskirts, literally among the dogs that scavenge for food. So, is it likely that increased rolling blackouts and corruption, economic stagnation and general social decay are turning South Africa into a rubbish dump? Will energy, water and food get so scarce, and life so inhumane, that we are left to scavenge like dogs? Can things really get that bad?

If our foreign minister, Naledi Pandor is to be believed, the recent travel warning of the United States to “exercise increased caution in South Africa due to crime and civil unrest” is fear-mongering.

In October 2022, the US described the South African reality as follows:

“Violent crime, such as armed robbery, rape, carjacking, mugging, and smash-and-grab attacks on vehicles, is common. There is a higher risk of violent crime in the central business districts of major cities after dark. Demonstrations, protests, and strikes occur frequently. These can develop quickly without prior notification, often interrupting traffic, transportation, and other services; such events have the potential to turn violent.”

South Africa’s scenario planning community has been looking at the trajectory of South Africa for a long time. The risks have always been clear, and we’ve been tracking them. The Indlulamithi scenarios calls the worst-case future, the Gwara Gwara story, one where “lawfare and disorder” are signs of “growing rage” due to “leeches on the fiscus” who suck the life out of our national wallet. In this scenario, by 2027 we call the International Monetary Fund following a 2026 financial meltdown, partly because there is “no consensus… and a sense of impunity, failed prosecutions” as part of a national “unravelling“ as the “wealthy insulate themselves” using informal convoys in a nation that is nothing more than a “promising mirage”.

It is depressing, but truth be told, we are sleepwalking into the Gwara Gwara scenario. Why? Because those with the power to act won’t and those who feel powerless are becoming restless, and it will be destructive when they act.

Seven steps that must be taken to avert disaster

1. Shuffle the deck in the Union Buildings, not the chairs. President Ramaphosa must reshuffle his cabinet and boot out David Mabuza, Blade Nzimande, Naledi Pandor, Gwede Mantashe, Bheki Cele, Lindiwe Zulu. These people’s impressive credentials date from 1980 and they have nothing to offer the South Africa of 2050.


2.  Stop this nonsense of playing war-game war-game with Russia and China while Russian weapons kill Africans. As the continent’s biggest arms supplier through state-owned Rosoboronexport, Putin’s cleptocracy sells weapons to Algeria, Egypt, Sudan, Angola, Mali, Nigeria and Ethiopia, proudly killing Africans. We can’t preach “silence the guns” at the African Union while playing comrade-comrade with Putin’s henchmen.


3.  Use the State of Electricity Disaster to do the things we know will stabilise the grid, such as incentivising private provision of large-scale solar PV next to urban centres and accelerate the conversion of coal stations to natural gas.


4.  Revive the idea of Nedlac and social dialogue, but for talks about action, not talks about talks. When Nelson Mandela created the National Economic Development and Labour Council in 1994 it was to enable government and the business sector, along with labour and communities to forge a pathway, a compact for the future in which all South Africans can flourish. Instead, fat cat politicians in business suits are pretending to create value by eating by themselves, like the last monarch of France King Louis XVI who would let the peasants watch him stuff his face. We need leadership for the common good, not the comrades’ good.


5. Jail some corrupt officials. No explanation needed. It is like that card in the game of Monopoly which tells you to “go straight to jail”. You have to sit out the next round of political dice throwing, as you pay your dues to society for stealing from them. So, make some Zondo-themed bedding and let those who made the bed of corruption sleep in it.


6. Keep hope alive. Each and every South African will choose whether we allow the self-fulfilling prophecy of national decline to become our story, or not. Hope is the chemotherapy that kills the cancer of fear.


7. The most important step, is that in 2024 the ANC’s love affair with the idea of state-led development and interventionist policies must end. Either because they wise up, or because South Africans vote the ANC out of outright power, to provide a counter-balance against the ill-conceived policies of elitist BB-BBE, land expropriation without compensation and the mooted nationalisation of the South African Reserve Bank. The reality is that South Africa will not attract the investment we desperately need if we keep telling people we will steal their stuff.