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"contents": "<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">South Africa is sitting on its next “gold rush”: a massive renewable energy economy that the country is on the verge of creating – and which the rest of the world wants.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But if we don’t hurry up, we might miss it.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The energy transition can create hundreds of thousands of direct jobs, and the new economy it will empower can create millions more through the industry that will be born of it. The CSIR, for example,</span><a href=\"https://www.cobenefits.info/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/COBENEFITS-Study-South-Africa-Employment.pdf\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">has estimated</span></a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that renewable energy projects could create between 100,000 and 300,000 jobs alone.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even in its lowest projection, that beats the 91,000 jobs that currently exist in the coal industry, which would be the industry most displaced.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Beyond the numbers, these are also better jobs. Primarily, they don’t come with the deadly risks of silicosis or many of the other health ailments workers experience in the sector. Importantly, the majority of the jobs – in building infrastructure and then maintaining it – are within the capabilities of workers in the coal sector.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So, as long as a lot of this development takes place in the coal belt, we can facilitate a just transition in which the coal workers who have powered our economy for decades are not left behind, but instead given a better opportunity in a new economy.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Beyond the jobs in generating this energy, we can use the energy itself to create hundreds of thousands of additional jobs, and make real progress in raising millions of South Africans out of poverty.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We have an enviably diversified economy as well as a world-class financial and services industry. In combination with our large population and abundant resources, this means our economy has the right ingredients to massively expand our primary (agriculture, mining and forestry) and secondary (manufacturing) sectors if we have an abundance of energy.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If we do this, not only can we export the goods, but we can expand our local market dramatically, creating a virtuous cycle of wealth growth.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Beyond that, there is what could only be described as a giant “RFQ” put out</span><a href=\"https://www.eca.europa.eu/Lists/ECAReplies/COM-Replies-SR-2024-11/COM-Replies-SR-2024-11_EN.pdf\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">by the European Union</span></a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, which wants to be importing 10 million tonnes of “green hydrogen” a year by 2050. Green hydrogen is hydrogen created from water using electrolysis, powered by renewable energy. It is here that South Africa is one of a few countries in the world in a particularly advantaged position:</span>\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li>We’re big and we’ve got the skills. This means we have the human and industrial capital needed to develop a large hydrogen industry;</li>\r\n \t<li>We have the geography. Massive parts of South Africa have exceptional conditions for abundant solar and wind energy. Beyond this, our solar and wind complement each other in that our wind power tends to produce well when our solar has gone to bed for the night; and</li>\r\n \t<li>We’re a stable country. South Africa has gone through hard times, with stagnant growth and significant challenges, but in spite of that we’ve proven to be resilient. We’ve also just passed a major milestone, having our first truly competitive election in our history. Imagine what we can do if we’re an economy that is growing, creating wealth and lifting people out of poverty?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">With these strengths, we are an attractive energy partner for any nation. Developed economies in particular have been particularly burned by volatility in their energy supplies, be they Russia invading Ukraine or the instability in many of the oil-rich nations around the world.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What South Africa can offer is a source of energy without some of these major drawbacks.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And this isn’t just theoretical. The JET-IP, a massive investment programme from developed nations in the Global North, is offering more than $10-billion (albeit short of the more than $20-billion needed) in concessional loans specifically so we can develop not just a renewable energy sector, but also a hydrogen industrial complex.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Currently, oil and oil-based products for energy are South Africa’s largest import. In a decade, we can turn that around and use our abundant energy for exports to generate enormous wealth, fundamentally lowering the cost of energy in South Africa, but also creating a new economy that can employ and provide opportunity and dignity to the millions of South Africans currently denied it.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">With all that said, this sounds great. It’s a no-brainer. Why aren’t we doing it? Well, there are four not-so-rosy things that we need to deal with.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">First, a hydrogen strategy is not without risks. While our geography is great for renewable energy, it does lack fresh water. This means that if we want to create green hydrogen for export, we’d need to use sea water, which increases the cost.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While this isn’t an unsolvable problem, we need to prove we can get it to a competitive price, and we need to be able to guarantee that we have buyers so we don’t end up falling into a debt trap and creating multibillion-rand stranded assets and industries that can’t repay the loans taken out to create them.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Industry experts seem confident, however, that making hydrogen at the right price is doable, and South Africa can work to get guarantees from potential customer nations to alleviate the investment risks.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Second, the finances are not yet fully sorted out. While the JET-IP contains about half of what we need to finance these projects, we still need to sort out the other half. It would also be important to increase the quantity of grants rather than loans for the remaining amounts, to make up for the carbon debt the Global North owes. This and the just financing of transitions need to be a focus of mass advocacy.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Third, we don’t have a great track record when it comes to industrial revolutions. In the past, communities have been sacrificed for the sake of progress. Our coal belt is a good example of this, with thousands dying because of the pollution this industry creates. We now know better, and it’s critical that our transition is just. New-economy industries need to be built hand in hand with communities, not irrespective of them.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Finally, this opportunity has been present for a while and we haven’t yet taken advantage of it. That’s not an accident: our public policy and industry have not adapted or moved fast enough.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is primarily because of a combination of traditional fossil-fuel sectors trying to hold onto their old economy, and a government which through a combination of incompetence and corruption has been unable to provide the licensing, support and legal environment to empower this revolution.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While these problems are real, there are things we can do about it. We’re sitting in a moment where powerful advocacy and mobilisation can make a massive difference. We need to ensure South Africa does not miss this opportunity to develop a just, wealthy and abundant new economy. </span><b>DM</b>\r\n\r\nhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REeWvTRUpMk",
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