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South Africa’s trade with European Union flourishing as US relations tank

Bhaso Ndzendze
By Bhaso Ndzendze
24 Mar 2025
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As a bloc, the 27 members of the European Union outrank any other South African trading partner, with China and the US being second and third respectively.

As relations with the United States deteriorate, South Africa and the European Union (EU) seem to be experiencing a golden age in their partnership.

In recent weeks, US President Donald Trump has at various points issued confrontational executive orders on South Africa, threatened tariffs on the EU, taken a position on the Russia-Ukraine war that fundamentally diverges from Europe’s, and scrapped American attendance of this year’s G20 summit taking place in November under Cyril Ramaphosa’s hosting.

In response, Brussels and Pretoria have been brought closer, with the long-planned South Africa-EU Summit taking place on 13 March 2025 in Cape Town, and the South African president issuing a firm invite to his Ukrainian counterpart for a state visit in April.

The summit touched on a range of issues, and the joint declaration pointed to cooperation on areas such as climate change, trade protectionism, global pandemics, rising inequality, peace and security, and sustainable and inclusive growth, with the EU announcing a €4.7-billion investment package in South Africa for pharmaceuticals, energy and infrastructure.

As a customs union, the EU’s full 27 member states have a similar tariff rate with external partners like South Africa. As a monetary union, 20 out of its total membership operates under the same currency and monetary policy, run by the European Central Bank.

And as a political entity, its parliament brings together 720 Members of the European Parliament from across the continent, from Ireland to Lithuania; and that body’s law-making powers are sometimes greater than those of the member countries (a major motivation behind the Brexit referendum in the UK in 2016 which led to the UK’s exit in 2020).

Before being allowed to join, aspirant countries are compelled to undertake extensive reforms to ensure separation of powers and checks and balances in their political system, economic stabilisation, and to ensure a verifiably free, democratic society.

The process is an intricate one, and for Russia’s “near abroad” neighbours — often pulled in opposite directions by the European and Moscow forces of gravity — the threat of sabotage by political actors more closely aligned with Moscow is ever present.

The EU’s challenges


Despite its best efforts to “vet” incoming members, the EU is itself only as strong as the collective momentum of its members on key issues. Notoriously, it is difficult or impossible to kick out a country that does not wish to leave the institution because all other members have to vote for that country to be evicted; a process that is easily avoided since there are alliances within the EU that would result in the blocking of any such eviction attempt.

In some instances, countries seem to have done everything to comply with the entry requirements, but subsequently falter on some of these once they are in the EU. Poland and Hungary’s reversals on independent democratic institutions and civil rights are an example. It is precisely because of this that while Trump generally has a disdain for the EU, he is personally close with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Recent years have exposed cracks within the union, not least on Ukraine. European elections tend to prove unpredictable — both in frequency and in the ideological constellations they produce. With the slow but steady climb of extremist political parties, the future of the EU, and its future capacity to act in unison, cannot be guaranteed.

South Africa still needs mutually beneficial, strong ties not only to the EU, but to its members. It is not the EU that makes or buys goods, but its 27 individual countries. It is worth reviewing the ties that South Africa has with these constituent states.

SA’s ties to the EU under Ramaphosa


South Africa has a sizeable trade with the EU. Indeed, as a bloc, the 27 countries outrank any other partner, with China and the US being second and third respectively. In the Ramaphosa era, imports from the 27-country bloc have grown from R308-billion (2017) to R426-billion (2024).

South African exports have similarly grown — from R217-billion to R351-billion (2024). Under Ramaphosa’s tenure, exports have for the first time outweighed imports, leading to a trade surplus in 2021 and 2022.

Who’s who in SA’s EU?


South Africa’s trade ties to the EU are dominated by the larger countries, particularly Germany. However, the middle-sized and even the smaller countries have emerged as forces to be reckoned with.

In 2024, Germany alone represented 38% of South Africa’s EU-bound exports, followed by The Netherlands (22%), Belgium (15%), Spain (6%) and Italy (4.9%). In general, these have all exhibited growth in the Ramaphosa era.

An exception to the rule is France, which, despite its second place in the EU in terms of size, is outside of South Africa’s top five export partners (being the destination of only 28% of South Africa’s exports within the bloc in 2024). France is also the only country with which South Africa is doing less trade since Ramaphosa took over; with exports having declined from R11-billion in 2017 to R10.1-billion in 2024.

In contrast, Ramaphosa-era exports to Spain have grown by 43%; to Germany and Belgium by between 60% and 65% each; and to The Netherlands by 110%.

South Africa has also enhanced trade with medium and smaller EU members. Since 2017, South African exports to Poland have grown from R2.3-billion to R8.1-billion (2022); to Greece from R824-million to R3.6-billion, to the Czech Republic from R2.4-billion to R6.2-billion; to Slovenia from R1.3-billion to R2.6-billion; and to Romania from R433-million to R1.7-billion.

Can the EU be a reliable partner for SA — and vice versa?


South Africa-European Union ties are built on some solid foundations. Despite the minor concentration towards Germany (itself a reliable partner for Pretoria), there is adequate dispersal of trade with many of the EU’s members.

Encouragingly, the Ramaphosa era has seen a boost across all existing trade partners (ranging between 43% to 110%) and major growth among the smaller EU members, some of whom were previously in the Russian/Soviet orbit. Encouragingly, much of this trade is a combination of both primary goods — agriculture and minerals — as well as manufactures such as vehicles and machinery.

Nevertheless, stress tests remain down the road, including on their respective relations with Russia, which South Africa considers a friend, and the EU, a strategic rival and a threat to its security. For this reason, South Africa remains a limited partner for the EU.

But it is on industrialisation that the EU is also a limited partner for South Africa. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism could mean a tax of up to 50% for South Africa’s platinum exports to countries within the bloc by 2034 due to the coal-intensive production process.

South Africa-EU ties are nonetheless working precisely because they put economic cooperation at the fore. Future elections — on both sides — may well change this equilibrium by delivering an ideologically fractured leadership formation in either Brussels or Pretoria.

Third party developments, particularly in Moscow, Washington and Kyiv, may also see each side scrambling to pursue its own interests, even at the expense of the others. DM

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