Strap yourselves in, the next five years could be a wild roller coaster ride

As political parties scramble to finalise the terms of the proposed “Government of National Unity” (or a disguised de facto grand coalition), it is important to take a beat and assess the possibilities of the new political landscape about to form.

Election 2024 has shattered the political equilibrium that existed pre-May 2024, and parties — both “big” and “small” — would do well to map out a path ahead in what increasingly will become a very messy political scene as we move forward to the next local government elections in 2026/2027.

Despite what many had hoped for, 29 May 2024 was not a “change election”. As others have stated elsewhere, 64.28% of voters chose the ANC or its two most recent breakaways, MK (an external faction of the ANC) and the EFF.

Election 2024 also represented a further drop in election turnout of 7.4% with this year’s turnout the lowest yet since the dawn of democracy in 1994. These are hardly the indicators of any thirst for change.

In the last decade, turnout in general elections has dropped by 14.8%. Add to this the drop of 11.7% in local government elections over 10 years between 2011 and 2021, and a distinct pattern exists.

Quite clearly, South Africans of voting age are becoming more unenthused about what’s on offer and the newly elected Parliament does not enjoy the support of a majority of eligible South African voters. This poses some serious questions for the 18 parties taking their seats in the seventh democratic term.

New political era

So, if not a change election, what was Election 2024? It appears to be a transition election that may have signalled the beginning of the end of the establishment of South African politics. Many represented political parties declined in this election, the ANC most notably.

The DA grew slightly in percentage terms but if one looks a bit more deeply, they benefitted from a significant differential turnout and winning back white voters (mostly from the VF+/FF+ and a small number of 2019 white Ramaphosa voters). Their share of the black vote remained largely the same and, like the EFF, it appears they have hit their electoral ceiling.

As things currently stand, the ANC, DA and IFP look likely to be involved in some form of arrangement at national and provincial level. Regardless of whether it is a formal coalition or more informal “confidence-and-supply” arrangement, international experience shows that opposition parties who enter into agreements with bigger parties struggle significantly in mid-term and future elections.

Read more in Daly Maverick: Things don’t fall apart— the centre starts to hold as GNU takes shape

The DA in particular will find it harder to roll out its traditional squeeze and anti-ANC messaging when some voters may hold it accountable for future (inevitable) failures of the seventh administration.

An aerial view of a voting station in Alexandra from the Hot 102.7 FM Helicopter, residents queue to cast their votes on election day. 29 May 2024. (Photo: Felix Dlangamandla)

Official opposition

The space for a new, vibrant opposition could be about to become wide open. ActionSA appears to recognise this, already positioning itself as the “unofficial” opposition. However, with six seats in Parliament, its impact may be limited, and it has decided not to deploy its leader and chairperson to the parliamentary benches.

Could there be any prospect of a centrist coalition emerging? Where centre-right and centre-left parties such as ActionSA, Rise Mzansi, Bosa and even Good could caucus together and spread their limited human resources among portfolio committees and key issues?

Such a coalition would still be small in numbers. But its impact could be significant and build momentum for a much-needed consolidation in the centre of South African politics.

The EFF will seek to position itself as the primary opposition force, but its now stale tactics of disruption and causing chaos will continue to turn off a majority of South African voters, most of whom abhor rude behaviour and seek unity rather than division.

A scary prospect is the populist, anti-constitutional potential of MK. Current indications, however, point to them disappointing many of the voters — a significant portion of whom were not Zulu — who voted for them to punish “Ramaphosa’s ANC”. As for the PA, their positioning and messaging may see some further growth in the 2026 local government election (at the continued expense of both the ANC and DA) but very soon thereafter they too will reach a hard ceiling for similar reasons encountered by the EFF.

ANC position

The prospects for the ANC will of course be fascinating to watch. Where the ANC has suffered significant electoral blows, it rarely recovers or regains much of its lost support. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the Western Cape where subsequent to losing the City of Cape Town in 2006 and then the province in 2009, the party’s support has fallen and fallen with every campaign more lacklustre and incoherent than the last.

Similarly in Tshwane and Johannesburg, where the ANC suffered big shocks in 2016, it simply has not been able to recover. After attaining 41.25% in Tshwane and 44.5% in Johannesburg in 2016, the party dropped to 34.6% and 33.6% respectively in 2021. It is likely to drop even further in two years’ time.

In KZN, the ANC has been effectively wiped out after going from Number 1 to Number 3 and is unlikely to recapture what it lost last month even if MK collapses over the next few years.

With the ANC steadily losing momentum in Gauteng, KZN and Western Cape while struggling to turn out its base in remaining strongholds such as Limpopo and the Eastern Cape, and with the DA, EFF and PA unlikely to grow much, more big questions will surface as we embark on the next five-year cycle.

Can the centre consolidate, or will there be further fragmentation? Can MK build a populist, anti-constitutionalist force? Can a people-centred coalition be built that activates the youth and lapsed (mostly former ANC) voters? What is the implication for local government of the decisions taken at national and provincial level?

We certainly all need to strap ourselves in for a roller coaster of a ride over the next five years. It is transition time in South African politics and the establishment will never be the same again. DM