Suspense grows as Israel braces for Iran attack; Gaza ceasefire talks to resume

International mediators of Gaza ceasefire talks were set to meet Israeli negotiators on Thursday, a fresh attempt at striking a deal they hoped would ward off a potential escalation of violence in the Middle East.

Suspected attempts by Iranian hackers to infiltrate US presidential campaigns have touched off a widening federal investigation into the first major effort by a foreign actor to disrupt the November election.

Suspense grows as Israel and allies brace for Iran attack

Two weeks after Iran vowed to retaliate for the killing of a senior Hamas leader, the biggest surprise has been that the attack still hasn’t happened yet.

As they’ve been saying for days, officials believe an attack could come at any time, and take one of many forms, all aimed at sending a clear message to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu while avoiding a destructive regional war or scuttling negotiations that could bring an end to the war in the Gaza Strip.

As time ticks on, officials are prepared to counter an attack by positioning forces in the region and tracking the movements of Iran’s proxy forces in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.

One Western official, who asked not to be identified discussing private assessments, said an attack could target civilian infrastructure around the Israeli city of Haifa while avoiding civilian casualties that would trigger a devastating Israeli response. That person said the attack might come from Iranian proxies and not Iran itself.

Another option would be a more intensive attack than the one Iran launched in April, which was largely deflected by Israel and its allies. In that case, proxies including Hezbollah held off striking Israel at the same time that Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones, almost all of which were shot down.

A broader hit could include Israel’s desalination plants, the country’s nuclear reactor or military sites. Or Iran could launch a devastating cyberattack that could cripple Israel without firing a single missile.

In the meantime, Israeli forces are on hair-trigger alert. The country activated a command bunker beneath the Jerusalem hills and Netanyahu has said his country was ready for “any scenario”. At least one top legislator has called for pre-empting an Iranian attack.

“For the Iranians, it’s partly about threading the needle, so you don’t start World War 3,” said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “But it’s also about threading the needle so people come away thinking that you’re dangerous and competent and you’ve got more where that comes from, and not a third-rate regional power.”

Israel has not taken responsibility for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on 31 July. But Iran has said the killing — Haniyeh was slain in a bomb blast at a Tehran guest house — was Israel’s handiwork, and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has vowed to “harshly punish” Israel.

Read more: Israel vs Iran — what all-out war could look like: QuickTake

That’s prompted days of around-the-clock diplomacy by regional leaders along with US and European officials who fear a reprisal will plunge the Middle East into more violence and instability while negotiations to end Israel’s military operation in Gaza remain deadlocked.

In an earlier statement, Iran’s mission to the United Nations said: “We hope that our response will be timed and conducted in a manner not to the detriment of the potential ceasefire.”

Gaza ceasefire talks to resume as Israel-Iran tensions simmer

International mediators of Gaza ceasefire talks were set to meet with Israeli negotiators on Thursday, a fresh attempt at striking a deal they hoped would ward off a potential escalation of violence in the Middle East.

While Hamas representatives were not due to be present at the discussions in the Qatari capital of Doha, two officials said mediators would brief the Iran-backed group shortly after the gathering. The people asked not to be identified because they weren’t authorised to speak publicly.

The talks will bring together senior delegates from the US, Qatar and Egypt, the intermediaries between the warring sides, with the goal of at least pausing the more than 10-month Israel-Hamas conflict that has ignited hostilities on other regional fronts.

The various parties are still working on the basis of a three-stage proposal presented by US President Joe Biden at the end of May, which aims to suspend hostilities, free more than 100 hostages held by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and transfer more aid to the ravaged Gaza Strip.

But mediators have struggled to resolve a key rift in the blueprint: Israel insists that it will eventually fight on until Hamas is destroyed, while the Islamist group is demanding that any ceasefire be permanent and all Israeli troops withdraw.

Iran and Lebanon-based Hezbollah are threatening to retaliate against Israel, which they blame for the back-to-back assassinations of top militants in Beirut and Tehran two weeks ago. That has deepened the impasse, though a Gaza truce could help ease tensions.

Israeli officials described the Doha meeting as a chance to close ranks with the US — represented by CIA director William Burns — and to ask Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani and Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel to persuade Hamas to give ground on the truce terms.

Israel’s lead negotiator is David Barnea, director of the Mossad spy service, which Iran has accused of being behind the killing of  Haniyeh.

Sticking points in the past have included a clause that provides for further negotiations after the first phase of a ceasefire comes into effect. Another is what concessions the two sides would agree to during a second phase.

Under Biden’s proposal, negotiations could continue if they run past the six-week initial truce, and the pause in fighting could be extended as needed. Israel has opposed this, worrying that Hamas could draw out the talks indefinitely. Hamas, for its part, has baulked at certain elements of the proposed second-phase discussions including the group’s demilitarisation, said officials.

Other points of contention include Israel’s insistence that its forces remain deployed along the Gaza-Egypt border, the number of live hostages Hamas should or could free in the first phase of the truce, and a lack of clarity over how to enforce Biden’s call for civilians, and not fighters, to be allowed back into northern Gaza.

The war erupted after Hamas fighters swarmed into southern Israel on 7 October, killing about 1,200 people. Israel responded with an air and ground assault and about 40,000 people have died, according to health officials in Hamas-run Gaza. Hamas is designated a terrorist organisation by the US.

Campaign hacks blamed on Iran touch off FBI investigation

Suspected attempts by Iranian hackers to infiltrate US presidential campaigns have touched off a widening federal investigation into the first major effort by a foreign actor to disrupt the November election.

Investigators believe that attackers tied to Iran succeeded in hacking Republican nominee Donald Trump’s campaign and gained access to internal documents, according to a US law enforcement official who discussed the matter on condition of anonymity. The intruders also tried to breach the campaigns of Vice-President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden, before he departed from the race, but it’s unclear whether the attempted hacks on Democrats succeeded, the official said.

The inquiry, led by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, emerged after a report from Microsoft last week described efforts by the Iranian government to access email accounts of presidential campaign staff members. Microsoft said the attacks were pulled off by a hacking cell dubbed Mint Sandstorm that’s linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard.

Allegations of an Iranian hacking effort come just weeks after US intelligence officials warned that foreign adversaries — including Iran and Russia — would seek to influence the 2024 election in ways that favour their interests. That includes recruiting Americans to spread propaganda, according to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

Iran’s mission to the United Nations has disputed the allegations. “We do not accord any credence to such reports,” the mission said in a statement. “The Iranian Government neither possesses nor harbours any intent or motive to interfere in the United States presidential election.”

US officials and cybersecurity experts believe Iran’s government is seeking to undermine Trump’s candidacy after he antagonised Tehran during his first term in office. While president, Trump scrapped an international nuclear deal with Iran, imposed severe sanctions on the Islamic Republic and ordered the killing of Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps.

“The regime sees Trump as militantly hawkish on Iran and probably has a preference for Harris, just based on the history of Trump’s relationship with Iran,” said David Salvo, managing director at the German Marshall Fund’s Alliance for Securing Democracy.

Oil options activity leaps with market awaiting Iran retaliation

Oil traders were returning to options contracts to hedge against the risk of a price spike as markets braced for a possible Iranian attack on Israel.

Bullish call options fetched a premium over bearish puts for each of the last three sessions, the longest run since Iran first attacked Israel in April. Trading volumes for calls on the global Brent benchmark were also elevated, with the 30-day average being the highest since May.

Oil options markets have seen repeated episodes of elevated activity since the conflict between Israel and Hamas started in October.

Both then, and when Iran attacked Israel in April, activity in bullish calls surged as traders sought to hedge against the risk of disruption to oil supplies in a region producing about a third of the world’s supplies.

US sells F-15 fighter jets to Israel in $20.3bn deal

The Biden administration approved the sale of up to 50 F-15 fighter jets, vehicles and ammunition to Israel in a deal valued at more than $20-billion, sending an unmistakable message that weapons will continue to flow despite concerns about Israeli forces’ conduct of the war in Gaza.

Under the terms of the deal, the US would send up to 50 of the Boeing F-15IA jets, along with upgrade kits for 25 other F-15s along with radar and other gear. The US would also send air-to-air missiles, tank and mortar ammunition, and medium tactical vehicles. The total deal would be worth up to $20.3-billion. Israel wouldn’t get the new jets until 2029 at the earliest.

Though Congress can still block a deal, Tuesday’s announcement underscores President Joe Biden’s determination to continue to supply Israel with the weapons it wants even as criticism grows about civilian deaths in the Gaza Strip. DM

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