ANC weathers storm in Thabazimbi, new Labour Party gets its first councillors, but it’s carnage for local parties

5 Dec 2024

The ANC faced major headwinds in the iron ore mining belt around Northam and Smersha Block in Thabazimbi. Despite these challenges, which included losing the safest seat in the municipality to Joseph Mathunjwa’s Labour Party, the ANC finished well ahead of the chasing pack and is in a prime position to find one coalition partner and govern Thabazimbi until the 2026 local government elections.

ANC 10 (11) DA 4 (4) TRA (3) EFF 3 (2) Labour 2 FF+ 2 (2) MK 1 TRA 1 (3). Total: 23

The setting: Thabazimbi forms part of the Waterberg District. The municipality borders Botswana. Most of the voters in the municipality live in and around the town of Thabazimbi, the Regorogile township and Smersha Block, a large area where a lot of mineworkers and people connected to the mining industry live. There is also a sizeable chunk of voters in the mining town of Northam, south of the town of Thabazimbi. The area north, northwest and west of the town of Thabazimbi is sparsely populated.

Iron ore mining is the key economic sector of Thabazimbi, which is also reliant on agriculture. The municipality boasts a national park in Marakele.

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC won 11 of the 12 wards, but without an outright majority. It won 47% of the vote and finished well ahead of the chasing pack. It was one seat short, winning 11 of the 23 available, meaning that none of its proportional representation (PR) candidates won election to the council. The DA came second with 15%, giving it four councillors. The Thabazimbi Residents Association (TRA) finished third with 11%, netting three councillors. The EFF pipped the FF+ to fourth place, and will send two councillors each to the chamber. The Thabazimbi Service Delivery Forum (TSDF) obtained 3% and a single seat.

The opposition parties worked together to elect the DA’s Tokkie Swanepoel as mayor. The TRA, EFF, FF+ and TSDF all collaborated with the DA.

The 2024 provincial elections: The ANC won just more than 51% of the vote on the provincial ballot, down 5% from 2019. The DA became the second-largest party on the provincial ballot with 21%, up from 14% in 2019. The EFF’s support slipped from 16% to 14% to finish third. The FF+ was fourth on 6%, down from 9% in 2019, and the uMkhonto Wesizwe party was fifth with 2%.

Parties including TRA and TSDF were not on the ballot.

The by-elections: The municipality was dissolved because of its continued dysfunctionality. There had been two mayors and two municipal managers running parallel councils. They were unable to pass budgets and settle debts with Eskom and the regional water authority. The untenable status quo was allowed to fester because of leadership squabbles within the Thabazimbi Residents Association (TRA).

The ANC, DA, EFF and FF+ were joined by 17 other parties on the ballot, including the two current local parties in the council, MK and the Patriotic Alliance (PA). There were also five independent candidates in a crowded field.

The TRA split into three, with some remaining in TRA, while former mayor John Michael Fisher formed a new local party, the United Residents Party (URP), and his former TRA rival Selaelo Sekgobela joined Amcu leader Joseph Mathunjwa’s Labour Party.

The ANC won 10 of the 12 ward seats. This included hanging on by nine votes in the battleground of Ward 4 (Rooiberg Koedoeskop). Had the ANC lost this seat it would have only won a total of nine. By winning 10 of the 12 wards, it was able to send 10 of the 23 councillors to the new council. That’s 43% of the seats, and above the party’s 40% total vote share in the election.

The ANC held its own or improved on its 2021 showing in much of the Regorogile township next to Thabazimbi. It was these returns that put them into the position to win more than double the number of seats of any other party.

It was in stark contrast to the iron ore mining belt around Northam. In Ward 3 (Smersha Block Zwartkop), the ANC fell from 71% to 26%. In 2021 this was where the party did best. In the by-election, this is the ward where the ANC had its second-worst return. The Labour Party shocked the ANC here, winning the ward with 37% of the vote. The EFF also grew, from 13% to 20%.

In Ward 5 (Northam Swartklip), the ANC’s vote share declined from 48% to 34%. MK, fielding a former independent candidate, came second with 18%. The independent mustered 7% in 2021. Labour took 12%.

In Ward 8 (Smersha Bock Northam), the ANC fell from 55% to 32%. The damage here was inflicted by the EFF, which came second, rising from 15% to 25%, followed by the Labour Party with 20%.

Read more: By-elections results hub

The DA remained the second-largest party in the ward. It increased its majority in Ward 2 (Thabazimbi Town Centre), moving from 47% to 52%, while the FF+ receded from 33% to 30%. It came very close to knocking the ANC off its Ward 4 (Rooiberg Koedoeskop) perch, falling short by nine votes. Key to the ANC’s victory was a differential turnout advantage in a populous Rooiberg district. The DA also struggled around the iron ore mining belt, losing ground in most of those wards around Northam.

The EFF emerged as the third-largest party after coming fourth in 2021. It exhibited good growth in a number of iron ore mining belt wards and finished well ahead of Labour in the Regorogile wards. The EFF will be delighted that it gained an additional PR seat and that MK did not compete with the red berets.

The Labour Party now has its first councillors in the country. Joining the ward councillor in Ward 3 will be an additional PR councillor. Labour was able to beat the FF+ for fourth place by making deep incisions in pockets of ANC and local party support in the Northam area. The Labour Party will now weigh up where it will next contest a by-election. Rand West City (Bekkersdal) in February 2025 could be next to test the by-election waters.

The FF+ slid in many wards, but retained its two seats. It will be satisfied with this outcome.

MK won a single PR seat. It now has a councillor in Thabazimbi and one in Rustenburg. This means the party has more councillors in the north of the country than in its KwaZulu-Natal heartland. The party struggled in Thabazimbi but will be happy that it came out of the by-election with a councillor.

It was carnage for the local parties. The TSDF will not return to council, while TRA made it back by the narrowest of margins with one seat, down from the three it had in 2021. It remains to be seen if this is an ominous sign for other local parties that did well in 2021 or whether this is specific to this municipality.

The ANC can form a stable coalition by either working with the DA, the EFF or the Labour Party. Despite losing ground, the ANC has a clearer path to leading Thabazimbi than it did in November 2021. DM

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ANC 10 (11) DA 4 (4) TRA (3) EFF 3 (2) Labour 2 FF+ 2 (2) MK 1 TRA 1 (3). Total: 23