The anomalous freckle on the face of democracy — combating election-result denialism

As the electoral moment recedes, matters of democracy are too often set aside as popular attention turns to the new government’s plans for economic and social reform. Amid all the fanfare of the Government of National Unity (GNU), let’s not become the confident patient who goes to the gym every day, but forgets to see the doctor until it’s too late.

Election denial — casting unfounded doubt on legitimate democratic processes — is among the most insidious of symptoms a democratic country can experience.

It is the callous refuge of those who reject not only their political opponents, but the democratic system itself. It is the deviant mole that is wilfully overlooked because its causes are disquieting to think about. Left unaddressed, it may be a sign of malignancy to come.

The GNU may consider avoiding loudly trumpeting the risks posed by MK — currently a minor party — in the heart of the public arena. MK may thrive off the resulting publicity.

When it appears, as it now has, a nation must reflect critically on the gravity of its emergence.

During this election, a party attracting just more than 14% of the vote rejected the results on the basis of unsubstantiated allegations.

Thankfully, we have yet to see the type of election denial that imperils democracy itself – the election denial of Union Buildings aflame; attacks on polling officials; mass investor flight.

But it may yet happen — the anomalous freckle, when left untreated, eventually turns the body asunder. Fortunately, global experience offers plenty of insight. Here is what South Africa can do:

1. The GNU must share the task of defeating MK party

MK spread unfounded claims of election irregularities. It may do so again. This means that its total, unapologetic electoral defeat is now the shared responsibility of South Africa’s pro-Constitution parties.

Defeating the political voice of election denial does not address its underlying causes. However, it weakens the ability of leaders to convert denialism into social chaos, national reputational damage, and investor flight.

GNU parties must not concede to the tactics of MK. Adopting the politics of identity and division will alienate, not enthuse, centre-ground voters.

The GNU may consider avoiding loudly trumpeting the risks posed by MK — currently a minor party — in the heart of the public arena. MK may thrive off the resulting publicity.

Instead, the GNU may speak by the power of its example by contrasting its behaviour with that of MK. It should adopt stringent collective responsibility, focused strategic discipline, searing honesty with the South African electorate about the challenges ahead, and a no-tolerance approach to corruption.

It should allow electors to see a clear choice between a pragmatic politics voters can be proud to associate themselves with, and a rowdy, uneasy spectacle looked down upon by all.

This is about speaking to people’s best selves. For the GNU should consider the task of defeating MK not that of each party in isolation, but a shared obligation to South Africa’s own best self, and the future that it duly merits.

2. Secure robust data on election denial

While election denial narratives are fresh in the minds of their audience, we have a critical and fleeting window to understand them.

A combination of social media analysis and survey-based research can prove invaluable. The research should adopt the highest ethical standards; and identify which claims were most consequential, the characteristics of believers, and what worked to mitigate their impact. There is plenty of international precedent for this type of research.

The research should also provide fresh insight into the topic of trust. By establishing who is and is not trusted, stakeholders will be able to identify the best avenues to communicate fact-based messaging — and identify which institutions need to work on building trust with electors before 2029.

This insight should be shared with those capable of delivering fact-based messaging to key audiences — be that the IEC, civil society organisations, and even potentially like-minded celebrities and influencers with reach among those who may be vulnerable to election denial claims.

3. The ANC should avoid placating potential denialists

During the GNU negotiations, we learned that there are limits to how wide a tent can be stretched. We also saw the benefit of avoiding bringing in those with a track record of burning down tents.

President Cyril Ramaphosa and his allies, in accepting the loss of the ANC’s majority, made a clear statement that the future of the ANC is a party that does not engage in election denial.

However, MK sympathisers remain within the ANC. The use of election denial for political ends from a minor party is one thing — but the consequence should election denial narratives ever be shared from voices within SA’s major parties does not bear thinking about.

For the GNU to seriously tackle load shedding, economic stagnation and infrastructural dilapidation, it will not have the time to manage chaos within. For the president to strengthen the GNU and deal a lasting blow to election denial, he should not attempt to stop those sympathetic to election deniers from leaving for the welcoming arms of the regressive caucus. After all, the GNU has the numbers to outvote them every time.

What’s more, as I argued recently in Daily Maverick, allowing this process to unfold may be the best recipe for the ANC’s own future success. There may be no better antidote to election denial than showing that democracy works.

4. Pre-bunk election denial claims

Debunking involves rebutting false claims with evidence. Research suggests that pre-bunking — helping people see through false claims before they are even made – may be even more effective.

Across the globe, election deniers often build narratives strategically over long periods of time. The work may start long before election day. In some places, it has been a tactic deployed by those whose objectives are not necessarily to win an election, but to diminish faith in the democratic process.

The tactics of election denial evolve as fast as social media itself. By 2029, much of the insight from 2024 will be out of date. This is why media houses, fact-checkers and civil society organisations must look outwards at other countries’ recent elections to prepare for future contests, and not just backwards at the previous SA election.

Having done so, stakeholders will be better able to forecast tactics and narratives that may emerge.

In short, a timely apple a day trumps the Band-Aid every time.

5. The IEC must swiftly address procedural challenges

Respected election observers noted that the IEC presided over a fair and credible election. I have worked with election commissions across the globe and have the utmost sympathy with the difficulty of the task. However, with stakes as high as these, it is vital to avoid giving any open goals to election deniers.

For example, queues as long as seven hours were reported on election day. With such low turnout, this cannot be attributed to South African enthusiasm to participate. It is a function of capacity. These queues did little to inspire confidence in the process. This attracted legitimate critique that must be taken on board — but such open goals also provided ammunition for the IEC to be accused of malpractice by losers seeking to falsely smear the process.

Even when an institution presides over a free and fair election, if people do not believe it to be so, they will dismiss the process with equal disparagement. The IEC should take seriously the recommendations of observers and act swiftly to improve its processes.

Democracy at its finest is an open and respectful marketplace of ideas. It involves magnanimous winners who deliver their pledges, and honourable losers who swallow their pride and concede.

At its weakest, democracy is perverted by those who cannot stand losing. Their narratives can ultimately metastasise into a distrust that sucks the life out of the democratic process. Ideas decay to identities. Policy decays to partisanship. Facts decay to fiction.

The anomalous freckle does not remain a freckle forever. As South Africa embarks upon the next chapter of its democratic story, the nation should mobilise a coordinated effort against the underlying causes of election denial. DM