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The decline and potential fall of the ANC empire

The decline and potential fall of the ANC empire
Stephen Grootes
By Stephen Grootes
20 Jan 2025
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A recent set of reports, revelations and decisions by the ANC may serve as a reminder of how the party is finding it impossible to ‘renew’ itself. As a result, the party is now more likely to simply continue its decline.

The fresh developments will have important consequences as it means that the ANC’s opponents, and perhaps some new political parties, will win more support unless there is some kind of reformist leadership elected in 2027. 

Two separate series of reports in recent days may well remind voters of how deeply corrupt the ANC appears to be.

The Amabhungane Centre for Investigative Journalism has reported on documents and affidavits filed in cases related to former National Assembly speaker and former defence minister Nosiviwe Maqisa-Nqakula.

While the reports are based on the testimony of a person who herself is deeply implicated in corruption in the SANDF, they appear to show how corruption had literally seeped into the life of Mapisa-Nqakula.

As defence contractor Nombasa Ntsondwa-Ndhlovu spells out, Mapisa-Nqakula routinely asked for hundreds of thousands of rand in cash.  

Of course, it seems all the people implicated in the case, both Mapisa-Nqakula (who is currently facing corruption charges) and Ntsondwa-Ndhlovu (who faced serious charges herself until two days before Mapisa-Nqakula was charged) have reason to lie. And to lie about each other.

But, as Amabhungane has shown through its reporting, many people in government connected with the SANDF appear to have illegally benefited from their positions.

So deeply rooted does corruption in the SANDF appear to have been, that it must be one of the reasons our soldiers do not always have the equipment they need – and this has perhaps put them into greater danger. 

Khumbudzo Ntshaveni


Then there is a News 24 exposé about Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni.

A court judgment has found that while she was municipal manager of the Ba-Phalaborwa Local Municipality in 2009, she participated in the awarding of a tender to a company that had not submitted its application before the deadline.

While this may seem like an almost minor infraction, it also appears to follow a pattern by Ntshavheni.

The Zondo Commission made findings about the decisions the board of Denel made during the State Capture era. That board included her. Despite her defence of these decisions, Ramaphosa still appointed her to his Cabinet.

Worse, he has made her a key confidante, appointing her to a position in which she has political responsibility for the State Security Agency. As our political history has shown over the years, this is an absolutely crucial position.

More recently, she has been castigated by many people watching the Stilfontein mine horror play out. They were appalled when she said that the government “would smoke them out”, about the people underground. 

This was a good example of an unforced error, one made simply because she had a rush of blood to the head, not because she was under political pressure at the time.

Despite all this, ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula said on Monday that the ANC would not act against her as the Hawks investigation had not been finalised. “We will respond to something tangible when someone is arrested,” he said. 

Powerless


The decisions announced on Monday by Mbalula about the ANC national executive’s decision to “reconfigure” the provincial leaderships of the ANC in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal also reinforce the point that the ANC is powerless to respond to the situation it is in.

In the past, when provincial leaderships either performed poorly and/or were unable to manage their affairs, they were disbanded.  

Clearly, the NEC has felt unable to go that far for fear of losing both ANC members and, perhaps, ANC leaders to the MK party. 

Also, the fact that this decision was announced only in January, months after the first NEC discussion about this issue, and fully eight months after the election result, is a demonstration of its paralysis.

Now, the top seven national officials will release proposals on the “reconfiguration” of these leaderships. In other words, the battle will continue there because the NEC was unable to fully agree on what to do. 

Ramaphosa succession debate


To his credit, Mbalula was honest about the fact that the succession debate on who would take over from President Ramaphosa became a factor in the NEC discussions. 

He said “it was very unfortunate that a very important question like this one was hijacked by factionalism, about what will happen after Ramaphosa. It was very unfortunate.” 

Mbalula also said, again, that this was not the right time to discuss succession. 

In this he is as powerless as Smuts Ngonyama was when he was the head of the ANC Presidency for Thabo Mbeki back in 2006, and made almost exactly the same comment – with a result at Polokwane that many will remember. 

Renewal


But he is not the only one. Ramaphosa too is clearly unable to change the direction of the ANC. 

Despite his many promises to lead a process of “renewal”, there is no evidence he is succeeding in this. 

The result of that is that the ANC is simply becoming weaker. 

The only way to perhaps avert this would be some kind of dramatic change to come from within the ANC, perhaps at its leadership conference in 2027. It might require energised reformist leadership, with an overwhelming majority of support from delegates to have a strong enough mandate to create real renewal.

This would involve a team of people, who are known, but not too implicated in the corruption of the past. ANC members might well refer to how young leaders energised the ANC in the years after World War 2 when Nelson Mandela and Walter Sisulu turned it into a mass organisation. 

The prospects for this are remote. All the evidence points to factions based around leaders who are part of its structures now. The fact that campaigning for office requires resources suggests reforming the ANC from within in this way may prove impossible. 

All of this may well confirm what is becoming the prevailing narrative – that the ANC can only decline from here. DM


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