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The difficulty of analysing Trump as a transformative force in global power and governance systems

By Busani Ngcaweni and Ra'ed Mohammed BenShams

7 Apr 2025

Understanding Trump demands a hybrid approach that merges complexity theory, systems thinking, historical analysis and real-time geopolitical observation. His rise is shifting the tectonic plates of global power.

We have read inordinate chunks of news reports and opinion pieces on US President Donald Trump, dipped eyes in numerous social media threads and commentaries, all to advance our understanding of the phenomenology of Trump.

The surprising and unpredictable nature of this presidency forces conscientious observers to refine thinking and angles, confront preconceived ideas, and approach his phenomenology with a more interdisciplinary lens.

What initially appeared as a political puzzle has evolved into something far more complex and systemically significant. Trump is not merely a politician, an ideologue or a populist, as many commentaries have observed. He is a phenomenon that transcends traditional political analysis and biases. He is a Temu, Takealot, Amazon, Alibaba, Shein, eBay, Rakuten — all in one. In him, there is something for everyone.

Understanding him will stretch you across disciplines: economics, psychology, media studies, network theory, complexity science, geopolitics, and even the philosophy of history. He represents a profoundly transformative force that reflects and accelerates the transition of established global orders, ushering in a period of significant systemic, albeit chaotic, change.

Trump does not fit into conventional ideological frameworks. He is a nationalist and an imperialist, a disruptor and a stabiliser, an anti-establishment figure who entrenches new power structures. His rise and continued influence defy simple explanations, making him a wicked problem; a challenge so layered and paradoxical that no single discipline can fully explain him.

Let us explore him further by synthesising what we have seen, read and heard about him from both new and legacy media.

Trump as a systemic disruption

We are no longer merely witnessing Trump as a political actor; we are living through the aftershocks of Trumpism as a global force. The year 2025 marks a new phase in the disruption he has unleashed; a wave of change radiating from Washington DC and reshaping global politics, economics and governance. He is a dinner table topic from Indiana to Inanda, Damascus to Dali, Sydney to Singapore, and Mexico to Malta.

Trumpism demonstrates remarkable adaptability, manifesting differently across various contexts and systems, influenced by diverse stakeholder interests and local conditions.

Some economies are being reshaped through tariffs, sanctions, cutting off aid and de-industrialisation, while others experience capital flight, trade blockades and geopolitical fragmentation. He has admitted to being aware of the danger of a recession in the US precipitated by the hyper-tariffs trade policy. Yet he is undeterred.

Leaders are losing their positions in America’s northern neighbour, and many are on notice in Europe already. Traditional alliances are shifting and the institutions that once managed global stability are now either weakened, defunded, dismantled, repurposed or bypassed entirely.

This transformation elicits diverse interpretations. Some view it as a natural evolution of global systems, facilitating the restructuring of established institutional frameworks and encouraging new forms of leadership. Some call Trump the ultimate anti-establishment.

Others see his precipitous changes as a dangerous regression, accelerating economic nationalism, the erosion of international cooperation, shifts in governance models and institutional relationships. Regardless of the perspective, no sector, ideology or national economy remains untouched.

Trump as an interdisciplinary question

Understanding this phenomenon necessitates an integrated approach to analysis. Traditional disciplinary boundaries prove insufficient for comprehensive understanding. No single discipline offers a sufficient lens to explain his phenomenology and the forces he represents. Here is a short illustration:

Political science struggles to categorise him: is he a populist, a nationalist, an authoritarian or something entirely new?

Economics cannot fully predict or measure his impact: his unconventional policy approaches will lead to market realignments while potentially creating new economic opportunities as countries and producers search for alternatives. He is taking us back to pre-globalisation days, where protectionism and import substitution characterised industrial policies. Yet, he also recognises the significance of artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing as a driver of growth in the 21st century.

Psychology can explain his charisma and polarising appeal but fails to account for the structural shifts that sustain his influence.

Media studies can decode his communication strategies but not the more profound systemic changes that allow alternative narratives to flourish. His followers have an answer for this: media studies are embedded in legal media theory and practice in the era where new media can determine the fate of nations, as we saw with this election.

Military and statecraft sciences cannot fully explain what is going on. Trump represents an outlier, a tipping point of improbability.

No traditional framework suffices. Trump demands a hybrid approach that merges complexity theory, systems thinking, historical analysis and real-time geopolitical observation. His rise is not just about political ideology; it is about shifting the tectonic plates of global power, the deepening of inequality in America, the loss of moral legitimacy for traditional hegemonies, and the emergence of new forms of control, resistance and aggressive statecraft.

A Vuca-Bani analysis of Trump

A cross-disciplinary reading of Trump requires borrowing from two crucial analytical frameworks: Vuca (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity) describes our unstable, unpredictable world as well as Bani (Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear, Incomprehensible), which extends Vuca by accounting for the emotional, structural and cognitive breakdowns caused by contemporary crises.

Trump as the embodiment of Vuca-Bani:

Volatility and Brittle Systems: his distinctive decision-making approach introduces new dynamics in governance, diplomacy and economic structures. His attacks on legacy institutions simultaneously expose their weaknesses and accelerate their decline.

Uncertainty and Anxiety: his closest allies cannot predict his next move. Governments, markets and policymakers are adapting to new dynamics, necessitating more responsive approaches to decision-making.

Complexity and Nonlinearity: his policies do not follow a predictable trajectory. The effects of his economic and political interventions create unintended consequences that reshape global trade, finance and alliances in nonlinear ways.

Ambiguity and Incomprehensibility: he defies traditional categorisation. His actions, motives, and strategies shift depending on the audience and context, making it difficult for analysts, policymakers, and even supporters to construct stable models of his leadership.

Trump as the ultimate weaponisation of global systems

More than a political figure, Trump represents the weaponisation of systems once thought neutral:

The dollar as a blunt policy instrument: strategic deployment of financial systems, including international payment networks and Swift, as tools of international relations to turn the international financial system into an instrument of US geopolitical dominance.

Tariffs and trade as warfare: his trade policies represent a shift from traditional international engagement to economic-centred diplomatic relations.

Media as a communication platform: through alternative communication channels and direct digital engagement, he introduces new patterns of public discourse.

Sovereignty as a fluid concept: his presidency shifts from traditional US interventionism (military occupations) to economic and financial dominance as the primary control tool.

Trump as a mega-trend, black and white swan

Trump represents more than an unexpected deviation from established patterns — his influence extends beyond conventional political disruption. He is also a mega-trend who signals long-term shifts in power, governance and economic warfare.

His second meteoric rise to power was not accidental. It is a symptom of deeper systemic fractures — the evolution of economic systems, shifting global power dynamics, and the challenges of achieving equitable outcomes in globalisation. Whether he is seen as a disruptor, a reformer, a reactionary or a harbinger of a new world order, one fact remains; he cannot be ignored.

While the complexity of these global changes may seem overwhelming, active engagement with these developments remains essential. But disengagement is not an option. Trump’s presidency invites a reconsideration of contemporary power structures, economic frameworks, and governance approaches.

He is not merely a political anomaly, but a manifestation of the deep structural crises defining the 21st century.

Understanding Trump is not just about understanding a man, it is about understanding the world that made him possible, the forces that sustain him and the systems being reshaped in his wake. This is not just about Trump. It is about the unfolding crisis of legitimacy, governance and economic power in the modern world, and preparing for what comes next. DM

Busani Ngcaweni is Director-General of the National School of Government, South Africa. Dr Ra’ed Mohammed BenShams is the retired head of the national school of administration in Bahrain. He is the current President of the International Institute of Administrative Sciences (IIAS). They write in their private capacities.

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