The Finance Ghost: Takeover Regulation Panel rains on data network rain’s parade

14 Aug 2022

The Takeover Regulation Panel has demanded that the data network rain retracts its press release about a potential approach to Telkom for a merger.

It’s rare to see a company get itself on the wrong side of the Takeover Regulation Panel (TRP). Nevertheless, the data network rain decided it was above the law, releasing an announcement about a potential approach to Telkom for a merger. The Telkom board hasn’t even seen a proposal yet, so everyone was taken by surprise.

An irate announcement from the TRP followed, demanding that rain retract its press release. Of far greater concern is the mention by the TRP that rain had been given specific instructions not to make any announcements but went ahead anyway. The reason the TRP is so upset is that Telkom and MTN are already in talks about a potential deal.

Speaking of MTN, the yellow giant released a great set of interim numbers that took the share price 9% higher on Thursday. The African subsidiaries are posting strong growth and in most cases operating at Ebitda margins in excess of 50%.

I took a punt on MTN before these results came out and it worked out beautifully.

Sabvest Capital keeps delivering

As investment holding companies go, Sabvest is one of the best on the JSE. The 15-year compound annual growth in its net asset value (NAV) per share is 16.9%, an exceptional performance. In the past 12 months alone, the share price is up 50%.

One of Sabvest’s secrets of success is that the portfolio is skewed towards unlisted investments, to which investors can’t get access any other way. This helps to keep the discount to NAV at a palatable 30%, with peers trading at discounts of 50% and more.

Results for the six months to June 2022 confirm that the NAV per share is up by 26.1% year-on-year and that the interim dividend has increased by 50%.

Italtile beats the odds

Italtile had everything stacked against it in the year ended June 2022. The base year (FY21) included a period of investment in home renovations during the pandemic.

In its aftermath, consumer spending has shifted strongly into travel and leisure.

When you include supply chain issues, rolling blackouts and higher interest rates in the mix, it wouldn’t have been unreasonable for Italtile to post a flat result in earnings or even a decrease.

Instead, the group managed to grow headline earnings per share by between 7.5% and 9.7% despite a marginal decline in group turnover, mainly in the importing business. This is an impressive result.

Sibanye responds to PGM weakness

Sibanye-Stillwater’s CEO, Neal Froneman, has a reputation for timing the market and making game-changing deals. The Stillwater acquisition is a good example, with the US platinum group metal (PGM) operations having already achieved a return that has recouped Sibanye’s full investment in the business.

The business is now facing challenges and Sibanye has responded. Major flooding caused production issues, and the PGM market has a less favourable outlook.

The mining sector is all about sensible capital allocation, so it’s not surprising to see a response from Sibanye to these challenges. The company released a detailed presentation explaining a decision to defer capital investment and protect margins.

Many mining groups have fallen foul of capital discipline in the past, which is why Froneman still has his fans in the market who believe in his ability to make the right choices (like me). The share price has had a tough year, though, down nearly 12% year-to-date. The drop since the peak in March is more than 40%. DM168

After years in investment banking by The Finance Ghost, his mother’s dire predictions came true: he became a ghost.

This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R25.

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Business Maverick

Sabvest Capital keeps delivering

Italtile beats the odds

Sibanye responds to PGM weakness