The GNU had better work for the ANC and DA, or else

So much has changed over the past few weeks that it is difficult to determine with certainty what the major variables of the next few years will be. That said, some important questions are now emerging, the answers to which could determine much of our lived reality.

Obviously the most important variable is whether the new government actually works, and it depends on the ability of the various parties, and their leaders, to move forward together.

The ANC and the DA have already put their credibility on the line with their agreement. As Rise Mzansi leader Songezo Zibi put it during the National Assembly sitting last Friday, the two “are joined at the hip now”. Also, the text of the agreement between them seems unlikely to have been agreed to in the short time between the proclamation of the elections and the announcement of the agreement – this had to be a longer background process, and appears to be a culmination of such a process. 

This may also indicate that both parties would probably work quite hard to stay in government together.

Also, both have much to fear from the consequences of this agreement falling apart. That could invite either the EFF or MK into government, which could seriously damage the ANC, and the DA, whose continuous support of the deal would become simply impossible, particularly the voters, were explicitly told it wanted to keep Zuma’s and Malema’s parties out of government.

Even if their government does not make much progress, they could remain locked in an unhappy marriage for some time.

If they remain in, other parties with something to fear from the EFF and MK, such as the IFP, would want to remain a part of it for some time as well.

Probably the biggest test of this coalition though will be at local government level.

Currently, the ANC is working with the IFP and the DA in national government, and in KwaZulu-Natal (with the NFP), while in Gauteng the DA seconded the nomination of Panyaza Lesufi as premier.

But the ANC is in an informal working relationship with the EFF in Joburg and Ekurhuleni.

While much is possible in our politics, it would seem almost unworkable for the ANC to work with the DA in two spheres of government and with the EFF in the third for a long period.

Also, if the current arrangement persists, it would inevitably lead to parties in the national and provincial coalitions having to campaign against each other in the local elections next year.

It would surely be easier to work together in all three spheres of government now, with an eye to possibly working together in those elections (the working relationship between the DA and the IFP in KZN before this election may provide a useful precedent for this).

Either way, the issue of local government cannot be ignored by the parties in the national coalition.

Perhaps the second-biggest variable over the next few years is the behaviour of MK.

So little is known about the people in its caucuses, or about how it makes decisions, that it can be difficult to predict if it will be a coherent opposition in Parliament and continue to grow, or if it could just implode.

The former interim secretary-general, Sihle Ngubane, said publicly that every single decision was made by former president Jacob Zuma. But no one person can make every decision for a political party on a sustainable basis. The recent history of the EFF may well be proof of this.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Chaos Is The Point: Zuma’s empty and violent rhetoric aims to hurt South Africa’s democracy

MK’s inability to mount proper legal cases, the reports of internal disputes, and its failure to negotiate a coalition in KZN may suggest that it could implode over five years.

The appointment of the impeached judge John Hlophe as Chief Whip in the National Assembly may also play a role. While no one can doubt Hlophe’s intellectual prowess, running a caucus is completely different to sitting on the Bench. And he has no track record of managing politicians who have aspirations of their own.

But equally, the fact that MK was able to win so much support in the elections in such a short time also suggests proper organisation.

This makes this variable difficult to predict.

Perhaps the next most important variable is the strategy of the EFF. 

During last Friday’s National Assembly sitting, Malema said publicly that he would no longer disrupt Parliament, and would instead oppose the coalition government using parliamentary conventions.

After the election of Cyril Ramaphosa as President, he made the point that he accepted the outcome, an important signal of his new strategy.

With so many former opposition parties now in the coalition government, and presuming that most MK MPs will be completely new to the job, the EFF could take the lead in providing oversight.

It may fall to Malema, and his MPs, to ensure the new government does not abuse the political power it now has.

If he is able to do this well, and if the coalition government makes mistakes and, if MK implodes, Malema may emerge from this period with his political power much enhanced.

Of course, it may be that the coalition government provides few opportunities for him to do this, or that MK does not implode, or that he is unable to change his strategy.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Parliament in GNU times — first tests loom for oversight and accountability

One of the more interesting variables could be what some of the newer smaller parties, based around what could be described as a new, urban South African identity, decide to do.

It seems likely that Rise Mzansi, Bosa and ActionSA all competed among the same pool of voters. Already there has been at least one public suggestion for the three to merge.

It now appears that Rise Mzansi is going to join the coalition government, which may make such a merger impossible. But if these parties based around this urban identity do work together, they could have a louder voice (particularly if both MK and the EFF are unable to provide proper opposition).

While there are many reasons to believe that this group of parties cannot work together over the longer term, the fact is they will all be judged by voters. They have decided to go into this coalition of their own accord, knowing the risks. And just this factor alone, that they will all suffer if it fails, could provide enough motivation to force them to work together constructively. DM