The new lost generation: Covid-19 has poured rocket fuel on our education crisis

The full effects of the Covid-19 pandemic are yet to play out, but one clear casualty of the past nine months has been South Africa’s youth. If young people were disadvantaged at the start of the pandemic, they are now even more so – and nowhere do we see this more vividly than in the education sector, where sagging school attendance rates and lost school time are helping to fuel the inequality gap in the country.

Data collected in June and July, as part of the NIDS-Cram survey of effects of the pandemic on the basic education system, show that attendance rates at schools, even among grades officially “open” back in June 2020, were significantly lower than usual. What’s more, this is affecting poorer households disproportionately.

Among learners in grades “not yet open” — where schools could apply for permission to reopen — respondents in the wealthiest 10% of households were three times more likely to report that children were attending school than those in the poorest 80%.

The survey estimates that most grades have lost up to 40% of school days in 2020 and highlights that poor access to computers and unstable home internet connections have meant online learning has not been possible for most schools over lockdown. Learners have also lost the social protection and nutritional support they may otherwise have enjoyed at school.

International studies have shown that these types of learning losses are predictive of lifelong outcomes, including educational attainment and labour market performance. And they are likely to fuel the country’s already high school dropout rates.

In South Africa, research has shown that falling behind is a key determinant of school dropout, even after controlling for school quality and socioeconomic status. Indeed, figures recently released by the Department of Basic Education (DBE) appear to confirm this. The country’s already very high dropout rate, which is in excess of 50%, is likely to climb further in 2020 due to the impact of the pandemic — even with the additional 5% mark adjustment in up to three subjects and maths condonation that all learners are to receive this year.

Aside from the human cost implied in these numbers, the lost hopes, dreams and plans for a better life of individuals and their families, they represent a tragic loss of human capital which, in turn, translates into a crisis for the economy.

Youth unemployment is already unsustainable. Around 55.2% of people aged 15 to 34 are unemployed, using an expanded definition of unemployment that includes unemployed people who have given up looking for work, and nearly 7.5 million are not in education, training or employment (NEETS).

There is no silver bullet for these issues facing young people and no one single individual or entity can solve all the problems. What is required is a multi-sectoral, systems-wide effort that looks to build on strengths, works from evidence and leverages off existing opportunities, so that holistic development can be achieved. If we want to reverse this trend, we need to act swiftly, decisively and collaboratively – and we need to do things differently.

The private sector is already spending heavily on education. In 2019 Trialogue reported that CSI spend on social investment was upwards of R10.2 billion, with the largest portion of this being for education. But more could be achieved if this spending was targeted smartly, with an understanding of which systemic levers need to be pulled to reduce high dropout rates.

In a complex system, fixing a problem in isolation will never be successful. We need to come together and bring multiple actors and perspectives to bear on the challenge facing young people in this country. We need to break out of our silos and try new approaches in order to make sure the youth are able to transition from education to employment and make a meaningful contribution to their own lives and the lives of others.