The numbers don’t lie — the inherent mathematical flaws in SA’s education system

This week marks two important moments in the education calendar of South Africa. By the end of this week, all public schools will have opened and officially commenced the academic year, as well as the release of the class of 2023’s matric results.

The story repeats itself every year, with little ever changing as we enter Basic Education Minister Angie Motshekga’s 5,350th day at the helm.

There is little debate about whether South Africa has an education crisis. The system is begging for a modern, future-focused overhaul. Years ago, I was employed as a teacher in a fairly ordinary Gauteng high school. With firsthand insight into how schools operate — and how rigid the system is – I share the frustration of parents and learners alike.

However, it goes beyond the classroom. The long hand of our dismal education system reaches into the workplace, the home, and the economy. This is why it is mission-critical that we change it from top to bottom.

On Monday, Umalusi — the entity tasked with establishing and overseeing standards for general and further education — acknowledged instances of learner cheating, exam printing errors, and translation inconsistencies. However, conspicuously absent was any mention of the fundamental issue: the persistently subpar standards of basic education under Angie Motshekga’s 15-year tenure as Minister of Basic Education.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Umalusi matric irregularities findings — group copying, errors in exam papers heighten concerns

In a mirror image of Umalusi’s selective statements, Minister Motshekga is unlikely to disclose that only a meagre 30% of matric passers will attain a mark of 50% or more in key subjects like maths, physical science, accounting, life sciences, economics and business studies. This poses a grave threat to our economy.

Even more critically, it poses a threat to young South Africans. It remains our duty to champion their cause and rectify the underlying, systemic issues continually glossed over by Minister Motshekga and her cadre of spin doctors. Let’s delve into the actual numbers, as numbers cannot be spun or deceived.

Matric results hinge on “base pass marks”, officially known as the National School Higher Certificate Standard — the lowest common denominator. The official matric pass rate is based on this low standard, requiring learners to achieve 3x30% in three subjects and 3x40% in three subjects. The average mark needed to be deemed to have “passed matric” is effectively 35% on aggregate, a problematic standard practically, statistically, and psychologically.

Allowing learners to pass subjects at 30% is detrimental for three reasons. Firstly, it is fundamentally an inappropriate and unjust pass-mark measure. Secondly, it masks the underperformance of the Department of Basic Education (DBE). Thirdly, it negatively impacts learners in the education system.

The DBE’s own Diagnostics Report reveals that the majority of students who take crucial matric subjects pass with less than 50%. Over the past six years (2015 – 2020), a disconcertingly low percentage of students who passed matric achieved 50% or higher in vital subjects: Mathematics (21.3%); Physical Science (27.1%); Accounting (28.8%); Life Sciences (29.6%); Economics (20.7%); and Business Studies (28.4%).

Bad news for economy

The consequence is a shortage of engineers, scientists, and science subject teachers, hindering our ability to meet market needs. Developmental psychology affirms that low expectations dampen collective achievement excellence. Current standards convey to learners that 30% and 40% are acceptable achievements. We must set and surpass high expectations, conveying our belief in learners and expecting excellence from each of them.

The question lingers: who benefits from using low thresholds to gauge pass marks and rates? Certainly not our youth or economy. Only the department and the minister gain. Minister Angie Motshekga’s 15-year tenure has left a dismal legacy, with global rankings placing SA 107 out of 141 in skills for the future workforce.

International benchmarks like Timms and Pirls indicate that only 20% of our learners are performing at the appropriate level. Holding her accountable is challenging when statistics are manipulated for a favourable portrayal.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Including dropouts in the matric pass rate detracts from the real issues affecting youngsters

Imagine an honest matric results announcement where the minister admits that fewer than 25% of students obtained a mark of 50% and above. This would prompt an earnest conversation about the department’s performance.

Solutions exist. Politically, change the minister and the government. Policy-wise, incentivise students to study subjects vital to the economy, offering performance incentives for a C grade or better in critical subjects like physical science, information technology, engineering, economics, accounting and maths.

To empower parents with choice, implement a school voucher programme resembling US charter schools. Enhance personnel by rewarding well-performing teachers financially and upskilling poorly performing ones. Attract top talent to the public schooling system from other sectors.

Revitalising schools requires capital injection. The private sector should collaborate with the government on a collaboration schools’ model, converting struggling schools with private financial aid.

This year let’s shift the conversation about our education system. While celebrating individual accomplishments, let’s not be swayed by the DBE. Instead, call for a new leadership team in our education department and discuss ideas to steer this vital department back on course.

With an annual cost exceeding R280-billion, overseeing over 24,000 schools and 13 million learners, we cannot afford anything less than a thorough examination of our education system. Our children deserve better, and our nation cannot endure 27 more years of this miseducation. DM