The political new year in the making: Five trends to watch closely

1. GNU: Death by a thousand pinpricks

At the end of the year, the stakes against the survival of the Government of National Unity (GNU) rose substantially when Deputy President Paul Mashatile joined the SACP conference to sing “asiyifuni GNU [we don’t want the GNU]”. Although he may have been playing to the gallery, Mashatile joined a growing list of ANC insiders and allies who are opposing the power-­sharing arrangement.

The GNU predictably suffers from skirmishes. It is a 10-party power-sharing broad coalition bound not by a pact, but by a less formal agreement called a statement of intent.

Tensions are expected and arrived with regularity, from the Basic Education Laws Amendment (Bela) Act to the future of the SABC and the coming National Health Insurance (NHI). Will the GNU die the death of a thousand pinpricks?

The GNU is under increased pressure in the ­governing alliance among the ANC, SACP and trade union federation Cosatu. The Gauteng ANC, an influential bloc because of its history and for being the home constituency of Mashatile, is also lobbying against the GNU. In its year-end edition, the Sunday World called Gauteng Premier Panyaza Lesufi “an accidental resistance hero” for his stance, setting the scene for a new trope in 2025.

DA chairperson Helen Zille told the Financial Times in a year-end out-to-lunch column that her goal is to replace the ANC with a new political centre. Lobbyists to the right of the GNU are using the Bela Act as a battering ram to push for more autonomy for Afrikaans language rights and greater independence for Model C schools.

The party can be sclerotic, with the DA’s Afrikaans support base fracturing to a surging FF Plus. To wit: party leader John Steenhuisen took part in a Bela Act protest with symbolic orange, blue and white branding at the Voortrekker Monument while he served in Cabinet, which passed the Bela Act.

There are beginning to be more people in the GNU who want to see its end than those who want it to survive.

And here’s a different scenario…

2. GNU: Or will wise minds prevail?

The power-sharing government saw South Africa end 2024 in better shape, risk-wise, than when the country started the year. Inflation is under control, the trend is bucking on our continent and growth expectations are reasonable. Load shedding is behind us. An energy revolution is happening in real time. There is cohesion in essential parts of the policymaking agenda, and the quiet supporters are in more powerful positions than their detractors. President Cyril Ramaphosa is good at building support through long games.

The GNU could stay on track.

3. People’s power, again

So, 2024 was the year of people’s power as dictators fell and incumbents were voted out of power everywhere from South Africa to the US. It started as the year of elections and ended as the year of people’s power. Incumbents were swept from power everywhere or toppled as the fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad capped a year of change.

What is clear, though, is that people who voted either at ballot boxes or on the streets raised their voices against bloated, corrupt and distant elites. There was a big lesson in 2024 for leaders everywhere.

South Africa shut its border with Mozambique in December as rolling protests continued across our neighbouring country. The ruling Frelimo claims an election victory of 70% of the October vote, but almost nobody agrees. Independent candidate Venâncio Mondlane has spearheaded weeks of protests, which look like they won’t let up ahead of Frelimo candidate Daniel Chapo’s inauguration in January.

In December, Ghanaians voted with their empty pockets. The pro-business and reformist ruling party candidate, Mahamudu Bawumia of the New Patriotic Party, lost to the National Democratic Congress’ John Dramani Mahama, who makes a comeback for a second time. The election was peaceful and Bawumia conceded early for the sake of stability.

The BBC’s Komla Adom reported on the pidgin service that “Ghana pipo don vote to remove dia ruling goment wia don dey power for eight years. [Ghanaian people have voted to re­­move their ruling government, which has been in power for eight years.]”

Lots of us are don with our governments, and we hope South Africa’s government has an eye on west Africa to see what happens when people have had enough.

4. Trump 2.0

Come 20 January, the White House in America gets a new occupant. President-elect Donald Trump’s second coming promises to upend globalisation by introducing unprecedented tariffs on imports. His administration seems set to throw constitutional norms out the window and, with allies, he is reshaping the information order to what some call an “information disorder”. This is where platforms are key to getting to constituencies, whereas what we know as mainstream media is subject to attacks on its trustworthiness and fairness.

What does the new government in the US mean for South Africa? We’re watching negotiations on the renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), keeping an eye on Trump’s rhetoric against the BRICS group of countries, which is growing, and also watching to see if Elon Musk’s South African connection will keep our country on the radar.

Also, Trump should be in South Africa for the G20 as South Africa takes the chair of the G20 in December. Zille has told reporters that the US will only support Agoa if the GNU stays in place.

5. G20

It will be a year of the G20 in South Africa as we host 130 global meetings, mostly in-country, in the run-up to the heads of state meeting in Johannesburg in November. It is a massive opportunity to position South Africa in the world and to help put on the agenda essential matters such as developing world debt, income support for poor households, and measures that mediate the inequality that has shaped the rise of populism and authoritarianism everywhere.

The G20 represents about 85% of global GDP, at least 75% of international trade and 60% of the world’s population. The G20 is not a single meeting in November, but a year full of meetings. Think of it as a year-long showcase for South Africa. Through the meetings, direct and indirect jobs will be created. The price tag will be between R1-billion and R2-billion, with much of it footed by sponsorships from the private sector. South Africa’s budget will be transparent in February.

The Treasury’s director-general, Duncan Pieterse, said: “From 1 December 2024 to 29 November 2025, there will be 130 virtual and in-person meetings across the country. It is a marathon of yearly international meetings to influence the global agenda and shape economic policy. It’s the premier global forum for discussing financial and global issues where developed and developing countries are represented.” DM

Ferial Haffajee is a Daily Maverick associate editor.

This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R35.