Time is not on the ANC’s side – it has failed to attract new generations

For any political party, managing generational change is complex and difficult – even allowing for the fact people are often reluctant to give up power or end their careers. Witness the Chinese president Xi Jinping, who managed to break the 10-year term ceiling imposed and respected by his predecessors. No matter their stage of life, for many the fires of ambition still burn strongly. For others, it could be a plain fear of losing power and safety.  

In the South African context, given that many of the younger lives of our leaders were forged in the heat of the fight against apartheid, it may be impossible to convince them that the Struggle is over.

Because of the way our economy is structured, those in power may have few options after they leave office. They may have many dependents, families who can live with them in official residences, and others who receive a salary for being on a minister’s staff.

This may explain the relatively large number of senior people in our Cabinet. Some, like Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, Angie Motshekga or Naledi Pandor have been there for many many years. Others, such as National Assembly Speaker Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula or Defence Minister Thandi Modise have spent many years in Cabinet and in other top national jobs.

This may suggest to younger people that those who are older than them will be shuffled around while their generation will not get a chance.

If it is true that a diverse group of people makes better decisions than a homogenous one, then that must also be true of age diversity. It is unlikely that a group of seniors will make sensible decisions about our changing world. Bad, insensitive, incompetent decisions will be made.

There may be other, more immediate political consequences.

If older people refuse to leave Cabinet or retire, those below them, in the provinces, may find it impossible to move into national politics, which may leave them frustrated. But it also means that, as the problem cascades, that the problem in the national Cabinet is repeated in the provincial cabinets, and into local politics.

In many a country with a very young population, some of the decisions made by the ageing revolutionaries from another era may also make little sense to the majority of people. This must contribute to so many young people opting out of voting altogether. 

After all, who in the ANC represents them?

Also, there may in fact be a “missing generational middle”, people who could have been national leaders who have now simply left frontline representative politics. They may have been able to lead a region, for example, but were never allowed the space to lead a province because others could not move up.

Some will consequently stay in positions for too long, accumulating the powers of patronage; others will simply leave politics altogether.

As a result, the ANC may find in a few years that it has few people to choose from for leadership.

Those who remain may have been unable to gain the proper leadership experience and have been unable to create national constituencies for themselves, leading to an even more fragmented party.

ANC Youth League