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Tony Blair says Africa can’t ignore gas reserves — but science says we’ve run out of time

Tony Blair says Africa can’t ignore gas reserves — but science says we’ve run out of time
Gwede Mantashe of the ANC at the National Result Operation Centre (ROC) at Gallagher Estate on June 01, 2024 in Midrand, South Africa. South Africans voted in the country's seventh democratic general elections to elect a new National Assembly as well as the provincial legislature in each of the nine provinces. (Photo: Gallo Images/Sharon Seretlo)
Julia Evans
By Julia Evans
6 Apr 2025
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Minerals and Petroleum Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe, former UK prime minister Tony Blair and the African Union think Africa should have its turn to exploit fossil fuels. But does this make sense economically, or scientifically? Daily Maverick breaks it down.

Last week, BusinessDay reported that former UK prime minister Tony Blair said at the 2025 Standard Bank African Markets Conference that developing nations, like those in Africa – which have contributed the least to global greenhouse gas emissions – should not be tied down by decarbonisation goals, and should not ignore their gas reserves.

“Ultimately, the solutions to climate change are not going to come from believing we can strike down fossil fuels,” Blair was quoted saying.

Blair did acknowledge Africa’s potential in renewables, saying “the immediate priority for Africa is to develop. And to develop, you need energy. I am in favour of Africa doing everything it can around renewable energy, and it has a lot of potential in that space.” 

However, he also said that “you can’t say to an African country that has significant gas reserves to ignore those reserves and not develop those”.

Blair added: “My view on climate change… is that it is time you took the climate change debate out of the hands of campaigners and put it in the hands of policymakers.

“Africa didn’t create the climate change problem. In the end, the only solution to climate change is through technology and getting flows of finance to the developing world to invest in renewables.”

Asked about these comments, a spokesperson for the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change told Daily Maverick that “climate change is one of the biggest challenges of our time” and Blair's comments “are consistent with the institute’s calls for pragmatic and bold action on the issue”.

They added that, “our view is that progress will not be possible if development and decarbonisation are placed in opposition”.

Minerals and Petroleum Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe seems to agree – he has long been a proponent of keeping the coal sector alive, and last month he told Daily Maverick that “King Coal is back!” as coal producer Seriti Resources launched its Naudesbank Colliery in Mpumalanga.

Disproportionate emissions – but SA’s not off the hook


Many developing nations – including some in the African Union (AU) – have argued that because they have contributed the least to global warming, they shouldn’t have the same decarbonisation targets as the worst emitters.

Like Blair and Mantashe, in the past the AU has also promoted fossil fuels playing a crucial role in expanding African economies and in energy access. 

Mantashe coal Gwede Mantashe at the National Result Operation Centre at Gallagher Estate in Midrand on 1 June 2024. (Photo: Gallo Images / Sharon Seretlo)



It’s true that Africa has contributed the least to the climate crisis. The six largest greenhouse gas emitters – China, the US, India, the EU, Russia and Brazil – accounted for 63% of global emissions in the past two decades. Least-developed countries made up only 3%.

Read more: Despite a drop in greenhouse gas emissions in the past decade, SA is still a shockingly high emitter

Africa has contributed less than 4% of global energy-related CO₂ emissions since 1890. But South Africa was the 14th-largest emitter of CO₂ worldwide in 2021. And per capita, our emissions are higher than the global average – more than India and the EU, and on par with China, largely because coal still makes up 88% of our electricity mix.

The institute noted that Blair’s remarks were in the context of Africa as a whole and not targeted specifically at South Africa. But even looking continent-wide, this framing doesn’t hold up to the science.

We’ve run out of carbon budget


Climate science operates on the idea of a “carbon budget” – the total amount of CO₂ we can emit before exceeding global warming thresholds. John Christensen, director of the UN Environment Programme Copenhagen Climate Centre, explained to Daily Maverick that “in the atmosphere there’s a certain amount of carbon that you can emit, and then you have basically made the roof so thick that you reach 1.5°C”.

CO₂ remains in the atmosphere for more than a century. On our current trajectory, the world will exhaust the carbon budget for 1.5°C by 2030.

“The emissions of coal mines and oil and gas wells have far exceeded the carbon budget available for 1.5°C,” said Jesse Burton, a senior researcher at the University of Cape Town’s Energy Systems Research Group. “Existing fossil fuel mines and wells account for more than three times what we can safely emit for 1.5°C, and are close to exhausted for 2°C.”

Read more: New UN report (once again) warns that the world is well behind emission targets

While some argue there’s still space in the budget for developing countries, Burton warned that “these developments will exacerbate climate change” and “run the risk of joining that pile of already stranded assets”.

A 2022 report from the International Institute for Sustainable Development found that, while fossil gas was once seen as a transitional fuel, the falling costs of renewables and storage now challenge that logic.

Even once gas infrastructure becomes stranded, the report warns, “they may continue to operate even when cheaper, superior alternatives are available, because the capital is already sunk”. That lock-in effect can lead to subsidies that “divert funds from other projects with better socioeconomic metrics” – something already happening with Eskom’s coal fleet.

High-income countries aren’t leading the way either. Burton acknowledged that countries such as the US, Canada, Australia, Norway and the UK – all with the means to move fastest – are still responsible for 51% of planned new oil and gas fields to 2050.

But that doesn’t mean the carbon budget has space for developing nations to exploit new fossil fuel reserves.

The cost of delay


Economically, continuing fossil fuel investment makes little sense. Not only will these become stranded assets, but the costs of dealing with climate impacts are immense.

The reason the “long term global goal” of the Paris Agreement is to restrict global warming to values well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, preferably to below 1.5°C, is because after we exceed these levels the intensity and frequency of extreme climate events and variability (including extreme rainfall, flooding, droughts, heatwaves, wildfires and cyclones) become even more likely.

In South Africa, climate change caused almost half of all heat-related deaths between 1990 and 2015, according to the G20 Climate Risk Atlas. By 2050, flooding alone could cost our economy R14-billion and expose hundreds of thousands more people to risk. By 2100, heat-related deaths are projected to be 25 times higher than in 1990.

Far from being a barrier to growth, renewables are already the cheapest option for new power generation. Burton’s 2019 study on least-cost electricity planning found that wind and solar could meet climate goals while reducing power costs.

Read more: “EXPLAINER: The real deal with renewable energy in South Africa — unpacking the suite of options”

The African Development Bank and the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena) estimate that renewables could create five million jobs in Africa by 2030. Irena also notes that renewables generate up to three times more jobs per dollar than fossil fuels.

‘Let’s set an example’


Blair’s comments come just weeks after a study funded by the British High Commission in Pretoria found that living near coal plants increases the risk of respiratory illness and death, especially in young children.

Read more: Living near coal-fired power plants increases risk of death, children particularly vulnerable – study

In the same month, March 2025, Blair’s former chief scientific adviser during his time as prime minister (2000 to 2007), Professor Sir David King, gave a lecture at Wits University calling for South Africa to embrace renewables. The UK became 100% coal-free in 2024, which King largely attributes to policies introduced under Blair’s leadership.

“We need to reduce emissions as deeply and rapidly as we can – every country,” King, a world-renowned chemist and climate scientist, told Daily Maverick after the lecture.

Speaking of his time advising Blair, King recalled: “Tony Blair says to me: ‘But Dave, if we reduce our emissions, what about the rest of the world?’ So I said: ‘Let’s set an example for the rest of the world.’”

The Tony Blair Institute highlighted that it is actively supporting clean energy across 11 African countries, including helping to develop Mozambique’s 1.5GW Mphanda Nkuwa hydro project. “Progress will not be possible if development and decarbonisation are placed in opposition,” it said.

But the science – and the economics – make it clear: there’s no longer room for fossil fuels in a safe, stable and sustainable future. DM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REeWvTRUpMk

 

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