Trump is driving SA and other middle powers towards China or non-alignment, report finds

The aggressive isolationism of US President Donald Trump is driving middle powers like South Africa, India, Brazil and Germany towards China, but even more so, towards non-alignment from the growing US-China confrontation.

This is one of the findings of a survey of the opinions on foreign policy of experts in those middle powers and published in “Momentum for Middle Powers; Emerging Middle Powers Report 2025”.

The report, released on Thursday, 17 April, was written jointly by Steven Gruzd of the South African Institute of International Affairs, Julia Ganter of Germany’s Körber-Stiftung, Manjeet Kripalani of India’s Gateway House: the Indian Council on Global Relations, and Carlos Frederico Coelho and Paulo Esteves of Brazil’s BRICS Policy Centre.

The survey was commissioned by the Körber-Stiftung and conducted online by Verian Germany among 906 government officials, members of parliament, the military, the judiciary, NGOs, diplomats, academics, journalists and businesspeople.

The authors of the report felt that although most of the international discussion since Trump took office for the second time had been dominated by the great-power politics of the US and its global implications, small and medium-sized states “no longer participate in global affairs at the whim of great powers: they are carving out a legitimate place for themselves in the emerging new order”.

The report detected that in reaction to the growing US-China confrontation, there had been a “pivot to non-alignment” by South Africa, India, Brazil and even Germany since the last report a year ago, ie, since Trump came into office.

This was particularly noticeable in the opinion of German experts. Although none believed Germany should position itself with China in the growing Chinese-US rivalry, the percentage who felt that Germany should position itself with the US declined from 80% last year to 71% this year, and the percentage who felt Germany should be neutral or non-aligned rose significantly from 19% to 29%.

The authors felt this reflected, among other things, the hostility of the Trump administration towards Europe.

The report found that the percentage of the South African experts who believed South Africa should remain neutral or non-aligned rose from 79% to 82%, over the last year, while those who believed it should align with China also rose slightly, from 9% to 10%, and those who felt it should align with the US dropped from 12% to 7%.

Among the Indian experts, the percentage in favour of neutrality or non-alignment rose significantly, from 38% to 52%, while those in favour of alignment with the US dropped from 59% to 44%. Those supporting alignment with China rose from 1% to 2%.

Among the Brazilian experts, those favouring alignment with China rose slightly from 13% to 14%, those favouring alignment with the US remained constant at 5%, and those supporting neutrality or non-alignment dropped slightly from 82% to 81%.

‘Declining US credibility’

The survey also found evidence of “declining US credibility” among the South African, Indian, Brazilian and German experts.

Of the South African experts, only 40% evaluated the global influence of the US positively, versus 60% who assessed it negatively. For the  Brazilian experts, the figures were 39% and 59%; for the Indian experts, 55% and 45%; and for the German experts, 75% and 23%.

The US dollar has also generally lost support, with only 14% of the SA experts rating it favourably, versus 25% last year. For the Brazilians, the comparable figures were 12% (10%); for the Indians, 30% (38%); and for the Germans, 57% (59%).

Asked how they evaluated China’s influence globally, 73% of the South African experts said they rated it positively — substantially up from 60% last year. Only 24% said they rated China’s global influence negatively, down from 39% last year.

Despite India’s strong rivalry with China, 33% of the Indian experts still rated Chinese global influence as positive, up 10% from last year, while 66% considered it negative, down from 73% last year.

Among the German experts, 13% rated China’s influence as positive, up from 6% last year, while 85% considered it negative, down from 92% in 2024.

In Brazil, the needle shifted slightly towards China, with 77% rating it positively, versus 76% last year and 21% viewing it as negative, down from 22%.

The survey also shows that even if rising percentages rate US influence negatively, the experts still regard their bilateral relations with the US as important.

In SA, that was the view of about 83% of the experts — still lower than for India, Brazil and Germany, where it is in the mid-90% range. About 86% of the South African, Indian and German experts ranked relations with China as important, versus 98% of the Brazilians.

For South Africa at least, this relatively high figure seems to echo the current insistence of the South African government in trying to maintain good relations with the US despite the Trump administration’s sustained hostility.

Middle East

On the extremely contentious issue of the war in the Middle East, the survey found what it characterised as “unexpected common ground”.

It noted that 95% of the German experts, 80% of the Indian experts, 77% of the Brazilian experts, but only 55% of the South African experts believed that “Hamas is a terrorist group.”

And it found that 94% of the Brazilian experts, 86% of the SA experts, 73% of the German experts and 71% of the Indian experts agreed that “Israel must be held accountable for violating international law.”

Meanwhile, 92% of the Germans, 85% of the Indians, 66% of the Brazilians and 61% of the South African experts believed “Israel has the right to defend itself.”

Eighty-nine percent of the Indian experts agreed with the proposition “The West has lost credibility as a defender of global norms”, versus 83% of the South African, 81% of the Brazilian and 59% of the German experts.

In essence, the authors of the report concluded from the survey that over the last year, “Non-alignment or neutrality has become more attractive. While eight out of 10 respondents in Brazil and South Africa still prefer the option of non-alignment to siding with either China or the United States, it is also increasingly becoming an alternative for 52 per cent of Indian respondents (up from 38 per cent).

“Even in Germany, non-alignment is seen as an option by a growing number of respondents (29 per cent, up from 19 per cent). Furthermore, there is an increasingly positive (or less negative) perception of China’s global influence in Brazil, India and South Africa.”

The authors saw signs in the survey results of a fundamental rethink by Germany of its relations with the great powers, especially its traditional ally, the US. It noted that Germany had for some time been de-risking on several fronts, including reducing its dependence on Russian oil and gas and on China’s critical minerals and its market.

Hostile to Europe

US Vice-President JD Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference (which was very hostile to Europe) and Trump’s rapprochement with Russia had accelerated this rethink, also with regard to the US.

The authors felt these developments were forcing Berlin inevitably to strengthen partnerships with emerging middle powers “with their unique access to the Global South”.

Among the authors’ recommendations were that middle powers like those surveyed should “revive the Bandung Spirit of 1955”, recalling the historic meeting of emerging middle powers which led to the creation of the Non-Aligned Movement.

They said doing this would require recommitting to the Bandung principles of non-alignment, respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations, no intervention or interference in the internal affairs of another country and a commitment to economic cooperation.

Reviving the Bandung spirit would also require addressing unresolved issues such as equitable development, technological parity, energy security and environmental degradation.

The authors noted that trade was cited as one of the top three foreign policy priorities by the experts in Brazil, India and South Africa, and as a high priority by the German experts. The majority of the experts in all four countries saw the trade practices of the US and China as unfair, while 80% in Brazil, 60% in South Africa and 56% in India also felt the EU’s trade practices were unfair.

The authors felt that improving its image as a less difficult and more reliable trading partner than the US for emerging middle powers “could be an easy win” for the EU.

They said the middle powers should join forces to strengthen the international trading system in the growing tariff war between the US and China. DM