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Trump’s vision of US gilded age mirrors 1897 when greed and oligarchs held sway

John Stremlau
By John Stremlau
29 Jan 2025
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To the extent that US President Donald Trump projects a vision for America under his reign, it is of another gilded age similar to that in 1897 when President William McKinley was in power. That was when imperialism reigned abroad and US apartheid, called Jim Crow, prevailed in much of America.

South Africans would do well to question whether Trump’s executive actions will have a lasting impact on American democracy and its role in the world. 

Daily Maverick summarises usefully the “barrage” of measures he has already taken that could affect the national interests of many nations.

But are there already evident political effects of this “barrage” of executive actions that could curtail Trump’s ability to consolidate power?  The following lists several national, international, and personal constraints that could impede his ability to govern as he pleases.

Trump is nationally vulnerable


First, Trump’s current domination is something he claims is based on his undeniable win. Yet if his base is Republicans, they comprise only 28% of Americans, of the voters, according to a recent Gallup survey. In the same poll, Democrats have an identical 28% base. The two parties are polarised, but most voters (43%) identify as Independents and persuadable.  

Trump claimed an overwhelming mandate in 2024, but it was not as robust as Joe Biden’s in 2020, which Trump still decries as fraudulent. Already Trump’s popularity has slipped 2%, and his 49.8% win over Kamala Harris was by just 1.5%.

Second, recent voter polls, usefully summarised by ABC and taken after the barrage of executive orders, are worth highlighting as several are also internationally significant.

Several of Trump’s most popular actions have to do with America’s large immigrant population, especially from Mexico. It is a more complicated issue than Trump acknowledges, but he derailed a bipartisan agreement for immigration reform reached last year.

At the same time a majority of voters opposed Trump’s pardoning of the 1,500 convicted felons who mounted a violent insurrection in the US Capitol on 6 January 2021 to block the Electoral College certification of Joe Biden’s election.

Two of Trump’s orders of special interest to Africans are also unpopular with American voters. One was Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris climate accord; the other was his order for the US to withdraw from the World Health Organization, an order that public health officials condemn as unlawful.

His recent decisions to impound money that has been committed by the Congress for foreign aid puts millions of lives at risk. These programmes have enjoyed broad bipartisan support for decades.

Public reactions to three of Trump’s orders were more mixed; the elimination of electric vehicle subsidies, increasing oil drilling, and his ending federal programmes popularly known as Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion, or DEI.

As Xolela Mangcu notes in the Sunday Times of 26 January 2025, “not one of the executive orders… addressed his supporters’ concerns about housing and healthcare, inflation, and many of the things they identified as reasons for voting for him”.

With the Republican edge in the Senate of just three votes and GOP House majority currently of only one, there is a good chance the Democrats will control either or both chambers after the mid-term elections in 2026. This would also have international consequences, as Congress controls the nation’s budget priorities and allocations.

International concerns


Foreign governments are anxious about Trump’s threats to raise tariffs, whether they are traditional friends, notably Canada, or growing competitors of the US, such as China and other BRICS+ nations. 

International business leaders attending the recent World Economic Forum in Davos were interviewed extensively by The Economist business editor Thomas Lee-Devlin and most were described as “sanguine” about the risks of US tariffs, having already prepared for the contingency, such as diversifying supply chains, adding: “Or they were confident they could secure special dispensation.” 

I have long regarded Trump’s tariff threats, and the possibility of presidential exceptions, as another source of direct or indirect revenue for Trump and his family. 

Another reason to avoid applying general tariffs, cited by many economists, is that Trump and his Republican base don’t want to risk higher inflation, that could hurt their bid to consolidate minority rule.

A more extreme danger is that Trump could provoke a war in one or more hotspots, but on this his record is to avoid involving the US in foreign wars. He would, in my judgement, take steps to avoid a military confrontation with China over Taiwan. 

He has, however, been hawkish in his support of Israel, but again says he alone can bring the two sides together. Unless Palestinians are given their own state, this could alienate a significant segment of voters, as would his “selling out” the Ukrainians to “imperial” Russia.

US foreign assistance during the Cold War enjoyed broad public and bipartisan congressional support. And recently, aid to Africa, especially in public health, has accelerated.

South Africa, after the end of apartheid and the advent of inclusive democracy, was viewed through the lens of the US movement to overcome the legacy of racial discrimination. South Africa could be singled out, but historically the country has generally enjoyed bipartisan support that will become easier if the Democrats win congressional majorities in 2026.

Trump’s personal limitations


Trump is the oldest democratically elected president in American history and will be about to turn 83 if he leaves office alive. Although he doesn’t smoke or drink, he reportedly has a high cholesterol diet, has already had heart problems, and a family history of severe dementia in the eighties.

He is already a “lame duck” president who would have to change the constitution to remain in office, an act that would require approval by two-thirds of both houses of Congress and three-quarters of the states, a political impossibility. 

His personal choice of vice-president, JD Vance, is only 40 with just two years in the Senate. If Trump stumbles, Vance is unlikely to have sufficient support to succeed him.

To the extent that he projects a vision for America under his reign, it is of another gilded age similar to that at the end of the 19th century, which was when imperialism reigned abroad and US apartheid, called Jim Crow, prevailed in much of America. 

This week’s cover story in The Economist compares Trump’s vision to that of President William McKinley in 1897. Current situations differ, but greed still predominates, as do oligarchs, as is evident in both cases.

Trump’s fixation with making money, avoiding criminal prosecution and imprisonment while seeking retribution from real and perceived enemies, did not prevent his re-election. But I assume this will soon alienate many who voted for him, and prove again the resilience of US democracy. DM

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