Trust deficit threatens Guinea’s peaceful return to civilian rule

Since the military coup that ousted president Alpha Condé in 2021, the handling of Guinea’s transition back to civilian rule has been criticised. In particular, the Forces vives de Guinée (FVG) group of political parties and civil society organisations has pointed to slow progress in keeping to the transition timetable. 

Although positive steps were recently taken – notably the announcement of a constitutional referendum date – these haven’t been enough to build trust between political actors and the transitional government. 

According to the 10-point timetable agreed to by General Mamadi Doumbouya’s junta and the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas), the transition was to end in December 2024 with elections. That deadline was extended to 2025. 

On 1 April, the transitional government announced a constitutional referendum scheduled for 21 September – an important milestone and a prerequisite for holding presidential, legislative and local elections. 

Authorities also clarified progress achieved, especially regarding three of the timetable’s 10 points: the administrative civil status census (Recensement Administratif à Vocation d’État Civil, or Ravec), drawing up a voters roll and drafting a new constitution.

When the transition timetable was adopted, many questioned the appropriateness of compiling the voters roll from the computerised Ravec-generated civil register, and called for the register to be revised. However, to save time, the transitional authorities decided to maintain Ravec and conduct a parallel electoral census by 20 June.

The new draft constitution – based on several written and oral contributions – was presented in July 2024 and disseminated among citizens. The draft was adopted by the transitional parliament on 9 April and forwarded to Doumbouya. Given Guinea’s troubled political and institutional history, this inclusive process was a vital step in guaranteeing the country’s post-transition stability.

Prime Minister Bah Oury has raised the possibility of holding the presidential and legislative elections in tandem following the constitutional referendum. This echoes FVG members’ call for the timetable to be revised to allow these elections to be held simultaneously, while leaving it to the next civilian leadership to organise the local elections. 

This option, which reverses the initial election sequence – from local to presidential – seems pragmatic, particularly considering the shortages of resources needed to meet transition timetable deadlines.

These decisions provide much-needed clarity on the steps needed to end the transition. But the crisis of confidence between political actors and transitional authorities could still obstruct efforts to peacefully achieve a constitutional order. 

The crisis is fuelled by a lack of consensus on the electoral process, the closing of political and civic space and disagreement around Doumbouya’s possible candidacy for the next presidential election. 

While the Ministry of Territorial Administration and Decentralization (MATD) has announced it will organise all the elections scheduled on the timetable, the main political parties want an independent and impartial electoral commission to have this responsibility. 

The authorities plan to set up an Independent Technical Body for Electoral Management, comprising political party and civil society representatives. But this body will only monitor and supervise the electoral process, while the MATD organises the polls. 

How the Independent Technical Body for Electoral Management functions will be decisive, particularly at a time when civic life is being constrained. These constraints include a ban on protests since May 2022, the disappearance of civil society organisation leaders and a journalist, and state restrictions on the media. 

Added to this – against a backdrop of intra-party quarrels – is the provisional suspension of the main opposition parties (Union of Republican Forces and Rally of the Guinean People) following a MATD evaluation of political parties. The political class fears this will serve the transitional authorities by consolidating their position ahead of elections.

Already, shows of support for the ruling National Committee of Reconciliation and Development (CNRD) and its president, Doumbouya, are multiplying. Members of the CNRD and government have publicly affirmed their backing for his candidacy in the next presidential election. 

Yet Doumbouya has repeatedly promised that neither he nor any member of the transitional government or parliament would stand in an election to end the transition. This aligns with Guinea’s transitional charter and the African Union’s (AU) normative framework – to which the transitional authorities have reaffirmed their commitment.

Some opposition and civil society members see recent trips around the country by CNRD and transitional government members as disguised election campaigns to prepare the public for a Doumbouya candidacy. 

An Afrobarometer study shows that while Guineans have a relatively high level of confidence in the transitional authorities and are satisfied with its achievements in terms of road infrastructure, their desire for democracy remains.

As Guinea moves towards constitutional order, it needs help from international actors and partners. Ecowas’ technical mission to Conakry in April to support the transition is welcomed. Its assistance to the transitional government, notably in mobilising funding through a “round table of partners”, is also significant.

With the backing of the AU and the United Nations (UN), this technical support should be complemented by sustained political and diplomatic efforts, as the UN’s November 2024 assessment report indicated. Such efforts must consider the regional context and the need for Ecowas to stand by its democratic governance principles. 

Ecowas should encourage dialogue to reach consensus on the technical and political conditions for holding the various elections. Talks will reduce tensions and help foster a more peaceful environment ahead of the polls. This is vital, considering that electoral crises have historically been a catalyst for political tensions in Guinea. DM

Paulin Maurice Toupane, senior researcher, and Aïssatou Kanté, researcher, Institute for Security Studies (ISS) Regional Office for West Africa and the Sahel.

Research for this article was funded by the Bosch Foundation and the government of Denmark. 

First published by ISS Today.