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Twickenham clash will reveal whether Boks are strong enough to wear rugby’s crown

Twickenham clash will reveal whether Boks are strong enough to wear rugby’s crown
Springbok captain Siya Kolisi on a run while under pressure from Huw Jones of Scotland during their Autumn Nations Series 2024 match at Murrayfield in Edinburgh on 10 November 2024. (Photo: Stu Forster / Getty Images)
The Springboks are in the increasingly familiar position of starting an away Test as ‘favourite’. They need to embrace that tag.

The Springboks have exceeded expectations in 2024. Indeed, who could have predicted that they’d win so many games this season, while rotating their team on almost a weekly basis?

During his first press conference of the year, coach Rassie Erasmus prioritised the buildup to the 2027 World Cup and played down the quest for more immediate results.

A hat-trick of World Cup titles, said Erasmus, was the ultimate goal, rather than an 80% win record and World Rugby’s No 1 ranking.

twickenham boks rugby kolisi Springbok captain Siya Kolisi under pressure from Huw Jones of Scotland during their Autumn Nations Series 2024 match at Murrayfield in Edinburgh on 10 November 2024. (Photo: Stu Forster / Getty Images)



Fast forward to the present. Erasmus has kept his promise to develop the wider squad, handing 49 players opportunities over the course of 11 Tests.

However, his dedication to development has helped rather than hindered the team’s performance. The Boks have won nine of their 11 matches, claiming a somewhat elusive Rugby Championship title in the process.

Favourites rather than underdogs


The upshot is that Erasmus’s Boks have arrived in London this week as favourites rather than underdogs.

While the British media has no love for Erasmus, recent coverage suggests that they respect what he has achieved with this South African side over a period of seven years.

The words “innovative” and “genius” have been used across several headlines, and the much-discussed takedown piece in The Times, which centres on Erasmus’s Bomb Squad tactics and their (unsubstantiated) threat to player safety, is otherwise littered with compliments. It’s getting harder and harder for critics to deny the quality and ambition of this Bok team.

The narrative shifted after the All Blacks beat Ireland 23-13 last Friday – becoming the first southern hemisphere team to win in Dublin since 2016 – and after Australia snatched a late 42-37 win against England to end their own 12-year drought at Twickenham.

Argentina and the Boks won their respective matches against Italy and Scotland to complete a clean sweep for the Rugby Championship nations. As a result, the Boks moved to the top of the rankings, while England dropped to seventh place.

The narrative as well as the rankings will change, of course, if the Boks lose this Saturday.

In a sense, the Boks still have much to prove. They’ve beaten the All Blacks twice this season and won the Rugby Championship, but if they crumble under the weight of expectation at Twickenham and blow their chance to make another big statement, doubts regarding their status as the world-leading team will quickly re-emerge.

To reiterate, this is unfamiliar territory for Erasmus’s charges. The All Blacks were favourites to win the 2019 World Cup, while most tipped Ireland or France to lift the trophy in 2023. Right up to the final of both tournaments, the Boks were the underdogs – and Erasmus used that to the team’s advantage.

Expectations may have been tempered ahead of the 2024 Rugby Championship, given Erasmus’s determination to experiment with his lineup over the course of the six-match campaign. But following the 48-7 demolition of Argentina in the decider in Mbombela, the expectation to perform is now sky-high.

Primed to peak


Bold predictions were made ahead of the recent clash against Scotland in Edinburgh, despite the fact that Erasmus had rested or benched the majority of his first-choice players.

The Boks went on to claim a 32-15 victory, scoring four tries and conceding zero against one of the most potent attacking teams in international rugby. And yet, there is a prevalent feeling that the second-string Boks may have won by more than 17 points if they had truly clicked at Murrayfield. Erasmus himself described the performance as “disappointing”.

There is good reason to expect a similar scoreline at Twickenham this Saturday. The first-choice players will be back, and more determined than ever to show the coach that they are worthy of their places in the pecking order. Most of these players are in their early- to mid-30s, and Erasmus has confirmed that he will have to cut some of the veterans in the lead-up to the next World Cup, as he attempts to strike a better balance between youth and experience.

England’s potential


England are full value for their place in the rankings at present, although this statement requires some qualifying.

Steve Borthwick’s side have lost six of their 10 Tests this season, including the last five against tier-one opposition. It’s worth noting, however, that they beat Ireland in the Six Nations, and that in all five of those aforementioned defeats, they finished within seven points or fewer of their opponents. They’re not the best team in the world by any stretch, but they certainly have the potential to claim a big scalp.

The 2023 World Cup semifinal in Paris will also be on Erasmus’s mind. Borthwick’s charges dominated the first half of that playoff via a superior physical performance and accurate kicking game that effectively neutralised South Africa’s strengths.

A late surge by the Bok scrum and the nerveless kicking of Handré Pollard earned the South Africans a 16-15 victory, as well as a ticket to the final against New Zealand.

England will hope that South Africa arrive at Twickenham with a sense of entitlement after winning nine out of 11 this season. But if Erasmus’s selections for the recent Scotland clash are any indicator, the Boks have been planning for this showdown with England for some time.

Borthwick has been fiercely criticised by the British media in recent weeks, but all will be forgiven if he orchestrates an unlikely win over the back-to-back world champions. Despite their inconsistent record, England could finish the year with the prize scalps of South Africa and Ireland.

What an anticlimax that would be for a Bok side that has taken giant strides this season, in terms of their results, mindset and approach.

Like the great All Blacks team of the 2010s, who boasted a win record in the region of 90%, the Boks need to embrace rather than play down their status as favourites.

If they cherish the big occasion and play to their potential at Twickenham, they will show the rugby world that they are strong enough to wear the crown, and that they have no intent of relinquishing it any time soon. DM